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Will UNAMID be compelled to withdraw from West Darfur?

By Eric Reeves

June 7, 2015(SSNA) -- This sixteenth installment of Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest has a very different time-frame and focus. I look exclusively at reports from the past half year bearing on how we must look at the impending decision by the UN Security Council as to whether or not it will renew the mandate for the feeble UN/African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID)—and whether, if it is renewed, it will be renewed in its present form, or with significant changes in the force, its mandate, or its areas of deployment. Current UN Security Council authorization of UNAMID expires on June 30, 2015.

[For previous (weekly) Radio Dabanga Digests, see:

Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 1 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1CD
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 2 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1De
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 3 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1Dt
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 4 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1Ei
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 5 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1EL
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 6 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1Fp
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 7 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1FL
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 8 | http://wp.me/s45rOG-6452
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 9 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1Gi
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 10 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1Gt
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 11 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1Hq
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 12 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1HY
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 13 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1Ia
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 14 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1II
Darfur: Radio Dabanga Digest, Number 15 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-1Ji

 —and below ]

Eric Reeves, 7 June 2015
Will UNAMID be compelled to withdraw from West Darfur?

Evidence strongly suggests that there is serious pressure to accommodate the Khartoum regime’s demand that UNAMID “exit” from Darfur. The impetus for this demand is largely of the UN’s own making by virtue of accepting the need for an “exit strategy,” one that is to be formulated expeditiously. This emerged not only from comments and reports by the Secretary General but in the highlighting of the terms announced in connection with the UNAMID re-authorizing resolution of last August (Resolution 2173). The regime is on record as having said they wish to see the present 17,000 uniformed personnel reduced to 2,000 by the end of the year, this after previous reductions in the size of the originally authorized UNAMID: these come to over 10,000 personnel, with more reductions in the offing. Some of these previous reductions—e.g., the reduction of the original 19 Formed Police Units (FPU) to 13—cannot help but have serious consequences for the functioning of UNAMID as a protective force. Particularly in camp situations, FPU can be extraordinarily effective, if properly equipped and deployed. Some of the reductions—e.g., the firing of more than 200 native Darfuri translators—seem thoroughly unwise.

All of these reductions are described as “streamlining,” “reconfiguring,” “increasing efficiency,” or with other terms that disguise the true nature of what has already been done by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Under-Secretary General for Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous. Permanent Members of the Security Council for their part have seemed more than acquiescent. Here are the comments of Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant of the United Kingdom, which held the rotating presidency of the Security Council for the month of August 2014 when the re-authorization resolution was passed:

The resolution prioritizes protection of civilians and humanitarian efforts in UNAMID’s work and requests enhanced human rights reporting from the Mission…”

“The resolution requests comprehensive and wide-ranging recommendations on the future mandate, configuration, composition, and exit strategy of UNAMID for next February, and expresses the Council’s clear intention to take prompt action on those recommendations. And we want to use this opportunity to make any necessary changes to improve the working of UNAMID.” [All emphases in all quoted material, whether in bold or bold underline, have been added; all editorial comments are in italics, in blue, with my initials following—ER]

Let’s be clear here: protection of civilians and humanitarians was always the primary feature of UNAMID’s mandate under the initial authorizing Security Council Resolution (1769, July 31, 2007). Section 15 (i)—in words that are announced immediately following the invocation of Chapter 7 authority—declares that UNAMID is mandated to “protect its personnel, facilities, installations and equipment, and to ensure the security and freedom of movement of its own personnel and humanitarian workers.” The very next section (15 [ii]) extends this mandate: “support early and effective implementation of the Darfur Peace Agreement, prevent the disruption of its implementation, and armed attacks, and protect civilians.”

To be sure, the disastrous Darfur Peace Agreement of May 2006 (negotiated in Abuja, Nigeria) was already a dead letter and would be replaced four years later by the even more diplomatically irresponsible Doha (Qatar) Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD). But nothing in the August 2014 resolution gives more meaningful “priority” to the “protection of civilians and humanitarian efforts.” To suggest otherwise is shamefully disingenuous and an effort to boost civilian "protection" by merely rhetorical means.

Beyond this disingenuousness, however, lay a clear endorsement of an “exit strategy” for UNAMID, and the February date set at the time started the clock ticking in the minds of Khartoum’s political and military leadership.

Several sources with knowledge of the negotiations, in New York and Khartoum, have indicated that there is a strong possibility that West Darfur will be removed from the area in Darfur for which UNAMID is nominally responsible. A compromise on UNAMID presence in West Darfur may take the form of several hundred uniformed personnel remaining in the region, but this would clearly be a major capitulation to Khartoum. Although the “new West Darfur” is considerably smaller than the “old West Darfur” (a geographic issue I have recurred to often in these digests), it is still a very substantial region and can’t possibly be provided security by a force in the range of a single battalion. Nor will this remnant be able to provide security, or even escort protection, for the few remaining humanitarian organizations. Indeed, it is likely that the organizations remaining will withdraw, leaving the people of West Darfur completely without protection or international relief resources (see below). There is no relief corridor from Chad into Darfur.

Nor will UNAMID have the ability to redeploy to West Darfur in the event of an outbreak of the kind of terrible violence that wracked the region in early 2008. UN Under-Secretary for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes declared at the time of this brutal offensive by Khartoum’s regular and militia forces:

"Rapid assessments have revealed severe consequences from the violence for some 160,000 civilians in the northern corridor connecting El Geneina and Kulbus, including the 20,000 currently at risk in Jebel Moun. The civilian population has experienced widespread displacement, property damage, and significant trauma and loss of life. Approximately 57,000 civilians were displaced due to the offensive. Along with countless homes, many compounds of non-governmental organizations have been looted or destroyedThousands of civilians have arrived in already overstretched Internally Displaced Persons camps near El Geneina or across the border into neighbouring Chad." (Official statement of February 18, 2008)

If UNAMID deploys out of West Darfur (it had officially begun deploying into Darfur the month previous to the West Darfur onslaught---January 1, 2008), it will have no way to respond to such an offensive, or to offer anything in the way of civilian protection.

The signs that West Darfur might be excluded in any re-authorization acceptable to Khartoum have long been evident. Particularly notable is a relatively recent Radio Dabanga dispatch:

 Sudan plans to disband camps in “secure” West Darfur | March 22, 2015 | El Geneina

The Sudanese government plans to dismantle the camps for the displaced in West Darfur, according to the Governor. Governor Haidar Galokuma told the Sudanese Centre for Press Services, owned by the security apparatus, on Thursday that his government intends to dismantle the camps in West Darfur, as part of its plans to return the displaced to their villages of origin. The West Darfur camps for the displaced are not needed anymore, he explained, as “an unprecedented secure and stable situation is prevailing in the state.” Sheikhs in the camps described Galokuma’s statements as “lies and deceptive,” referring to recent attacks on displaced at the Azirni, Kongok, Kereinik, and Um Tajuk camps.

As suggested by the sheikhs cited here, and below, this is a deeply unhappy misrepresentation:

“No UNAMID exit before peace in Darfur”: displaced | March 22, 2015 | Zamzam Camp

Notably, Darfuri refugees in eastern Chad refuse to be repatriated to Darfur; a great many are from West Darfur (“new” and “old”). This is a very recent, but entirely representative dispatch from Radio Dabanga:

Sudanese refugees in Chad refuse voluntary return | May 22, 2015 | Khartoum / Gaga Camp, eastern Chad

Sudan, Chad and the United Nations High Commissioners for Refugees held a joint meeting in Khartoum to discuss the return of Sudanese refugees residing in twelve camps in eastern Chad. Babiker Ahmad Digna, the State Minister of Interior, confirmed his government's commitment to achieve sustainable voluntary repatriation of Sudanese refugees in Chad. “It’s the best solution to their problems.”

The Sudanese refugees in the camps in eastern Chad [some 370,000 according to UN figures—ER] refused the government’s claims on voluntary repatriation and described the situation in Darfur as “more dangerous than when they fled to Chad.” Yassin Yahya, an activist in camp Gaga, told Radio Dabanga that the dream of returning home still entices all refugees, but the serious conditions prevailing now in Darfur cannot allow this.

Despite conspicuous insecurity throughout Darfur, getting rid of UNAMID nonetheless figured prominently in al-Bashir’s “election” campaign as he traveled to Darfur under extremely heavy security:

“Darfur does not need UNAMID protection”: Al Bashir | April 9, 2015 | El Fasher

Concluding his electoral campaign in the five states of Darfur, President Omar Al Bashir told supporters in El Fasher, capital of North Darfur, on Wednesday that the Darfuris do not need to be protected by foreign peacekeepers.

Do you need someone to tell you how to find reconciliation between yourselves? Do you need UNAMID? Do you need the African Union? Do you need the UN?” Al Bashir asked hundreds of supporters. “Despite the rebels’ claim that Darfur is marginalised, they continuously impede the government's efforts to build schools and dig wells. [There have never been such “government efforts”—indeed, the lack of them is precisely what led to the rebellion.] Instead they are trading the cause of Darfur, following a foreign agenda.” He said that the rebels will soon be eliminated. [Al-Bashir first made this claim in 2004—eleven years ago—and has stuck doggedly with it, here in a Reuters dispatch (February 24, 2010):  “‘Now the war is finished in Darfur ... We must start fighting the war for development,’ Bashir told his supporters at the rally in [North Darfur],” where the violence is currently most extremeER]

One of the sheikhs of the Zamzam camp for the displaced near El Fasher told Radio Dabanga that most of the camp residents boycotted the visit of Al Bashir, “except for a few people who joined the ruling National Congress Party in an attempt to meet some of their needs.”  He compared the president’s visit to Darfur with “a murderer who visits the cemetery to dance on gravestones of his victims.” [This was certainly the attitude of the vast majority of people who did not attend the event—ER]

West Darfur

So just how big is West Darfur? The “old West Darfur” was approximately 700 kilometers north to south, and approximately 300 kilometers east to west. The “new West Darfur,” with substantial areas going to make up “Central Darfur,” is still large: over 300 kilometers north to south, and over 100 kilometers east to West. It is also the most difficult region to reach by overland transport.

There have been efforts in recent years to suggest that West Darfur, at least the “new West Darfur,” is somehow more secure than other parts of Darfur. UN head of peacekeeping Ladsous, regarded with contempt by many senior officials in the UN, has been especially culpable on this score. The present reduction in UNAMID was initiated three years ago when Ladsous asserted, falsely, that the security situation in Darfur, especially in West Darfur and the Chad/Darfur border areas, had sufficiently improved to justify a draw-down in troops levels. Following yet another deadly attack on UNAMID forces in July 2013, Ladsous declared, UNAMID "has the inherent robustness to deal with the situation" in Darfur (Agence France-Presse [Khartoum], July 2013). There is nothing to support this claim, and UNAMID personnel have continued to face deadly attacks, many clearly carried out at Khartoum's behest.

In a very limited sense, Ladsous’ characterization of West Darfur was true, given the extraordinary levels of violence in Central DarfurSouth Darfur, and especially North Darfur, which is now witnessing levels of human suffering and destruction exceeding anything since the early years of the genocide. Victims continue to be overwhelmingly from the African tribal groups of Darfur, and the perpetrators of what are widespread and systematic atrocity crimes continue to be Arab militia forces (led by the regime-supplied and -equipped—and celebrated—“Rapid Response Forces,” RSF), and Khartoum’s regular military forces (the Sudan Armed Forces, or SAF)—including an air force that relentlessly targets civilians in a remorseless campaign of aerial bombardment that not only violates international law, but brazenly contravenes the “demands” of UN Security Council Resolution 1591 (March 2005).

But as a survey of what has been reported from the “new West Darfur” over the past six months reveals, violence and threats to civilian and humanitarian security remain at intolerably high levels. I have assembled Radio Dabanga dispatches from these six months alone, organizing them by grim topics, and made very brief, only occasional editorial comments. The reports are so numerous that extreme concision has been required for all dispatches; most appear only with the title, date, and link. (NB: A useful and quite recent administrative map of Darfur appears here.)

The political backdrop to the current crisis over re-authorization of UNAMID

Perhaps the clearest signal of the potential for a catastrophic decision by the UN Security Council became clear exactly half a year ago. As reported by Radio Dabanga, Russia chose to support Khartoum’s position on the issue of UNAMID re-authorization:

UNAMID’s exit from Darfur supported by Russia, opposed by displaced, rebels | December 4, 2014 | Khartoum / North Darfur / Addis Ababa

Russia supports Sudan’s position on the departure of the UN-AU peacekeeping mission in Darfur. The Darfur displaced and the rebel movements voiced their strong rejection to UNAMID’s eviction. Foreign Minister Ali Karti announced at a joint a press conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, on Wednesday that Sudan reached understandings with Russia about UNAMID’s exit. Lavrov arrived to Sudan early on Wednesday to attend the 2nd Russian-Arab Cooperation Forum convened in Khartoum. After a meeting with President Al Bashir and Karti, he stated during the press conference that Sudan and Russia agreed to support each other politically, militarily, and economically. On Sunday, Al Basher stressed in a press conference in Khartoum that he wants UNAMID to leave the country.

Dismal relations between Russia and the Permanent Three (France, the UK, and the U.S.—the P3) ensure that Vladimir Putin would enjoy subverting efforts to renew what the P3 at least claim to want. Moreover, Khartoum has also been an exceedingly good consumer of Russia weapons and armaments, including helicopter gunships and even highly advanced military systems such as advanced MiG-29 fighter jets, emblematic of the current regime’s spending profligacy. Knowing that it will likely be able to count on Russian support in the Security Council, Khartoum will push hard for radical cuts in UNAMID, perhaps exceeding the 85 percent cut in uniformed personnel that it has already tabled publicly. Supported with the threat of a possible Russian veto of any re-authorization resolution, the regime will strain to get as much as it can. As negotiations are now dragging on without resolution, it appears increasingly likely that the “new West Darfur” will be sacrificed to preserve the presence of UNAMID elsewhere in Darfur. What this ignores is that once the precedent of an essentially compelled withdrawal has been established, Khartoum will continue to push aggressively for more areas to be declared “secure” and thus no longer in need of a UNAMID presence—or indeed that of any international force or organization.

This won’t be because international assessment of the National Islamic Front/National Congress Party regime has changed, as Radio Dabanga regularly reports:

“No improvement in Sudan’s war zones”: US Deputy | March 1, 2015 | Khartoum / Washington

“Freedoms severely curtailed in Sudan in 2014”: Amnesty International | February 26, 2015 | London

Freedoms of expression, association, and assembly were severely curtailed last year, with crackdowns on the media, public dialogue, and demonstrations, Amnesty International says in its annual State of the World’s Human Rights Report in 2014.

Sudan: Country Report 2015, Human Rights Watch

Sudan saw no progress in its abysmal rights record in 2014. Instead, new episodes of conflict in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile states resulted in large numbers of civilian deaths and displaced; security forces repeatedly suppressed protesters demonstrating against government policies; and authorities continued to stifle civil society and independent media.

Reporters Without Borders Country Index of Press Freedom, 2015  [The Index ranks Sudan 174th of 179 countries surveyed—ER]

[The regime shut down UNAMID’s human rights office in Khartoum following the Tabit rape investigation and release of a damning internal UNAMID report on the event—ER]

Situation in Darfur “deteriorated significantly” over past year: Hervé Ladsous | March 18, 2015 | New York

[A dramatic reversal of assessment. Ladsous would have us believe that this” deterioration” is confined to the past year, but this is simply not true: the upsurge in violence began conspicuously in 2012, but Darfur has never been remotely close to true peace—ER]

UN human rights expert concerned about future of Darfur displaced | May 21, 2015 | Khartoum

“Sudan's children bear brunt of conflict”: UNICEF | January 20, 2015 | Khartoum

Extraordinarily, some courageous Sudanese individuals are making equally telling points from within Sudan, although always at risk of arrest and possible torture or execution:

Dr. Amin Mekki Medan, former president of the Sudan Human Rights Monitor, was arbitrarily arrested on December 6, 2014 and detained until April 9, 2015. Prior to his arrest, Dr. Medani had just returned from Addis Ababa, where on December 3rd he had signed the “Sudan Call.”

[The “Sudan Call” is a Declaration on the “Establishment of a State of Citizenship and Democracy”, under which co-signatories committed to work towards the end of the conflicts raging in different regions of Sudan and towards legal, institutional and economic reforms. The Declaration, which commits signatories to end wars and conflicts as a priority, was co-signed in Addis Ababa by representatives from political and armed opposition parties…”]

 “War in Darfur has led to chaos”: Ansar leader | June 3, 2015 | Omdurman

“Sudan’s judiciary corrupt since 1989”: former judge | December 21, 2014 | Khartoum

Liberation and Justice Movement apology to people of Darfur | February 2, 2015 | Khartoum

[This dispatch contains a remarkably candid admission by the Secretary General of the Liberation and Justice Movement, a factitious “rebel group” that was the only signatory to the July 2011 “Doha Document for Peace in Darfur,” a diplomatic disaster that Khartoum continues to cleave to because it is nominally an agreement; this way other rebel parties can have it demanded of them that they join in the “Doha process,” or be labeled “spoilers.” The Darfur Regional Authority created by the DDPD is widely regarded as a complete disaster—ER]

The secretary-general of the Liberation and Justice Movement (LJM), Bahar Idris Abu Garda, has offered his apologies to the people of Darfur for the failure of the Darfur Regional Authority (DRA) to address their issues, and implement the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD). In a meeting of LJM leaders on internal matters and the implementation of the DDPD, signed by the former rebel movement and the Sudanese government in 2011, Abu Garda apologised to the people of Darfur “who deserve more than an apology. I feel remorse because the DRA could have done much more regarding the Doha peace accord.”

[What goes unsaid here is that the DDPD never had the support of Darfuri civil society, which was not meaningfully included in the Doha negotiations, this at Khartoum’s insistence. Rebel groups other than the “LJM” were always opposed to the Doha process and agreement—ER]

The Sudanese economy is still imploding, with ever-greater consequences for citizens and the general food supply

A factor still not sufficiently considered in assessing the current political and security situation in Khartoum and Sudan more broadly is that despite the easy “re-election” of Omar al-Bashir as President of the regime, he continues to preside over an economy that is imploding, with high (and growing) real inflation, high unemployment/under-employment, a currency in free-fall, and an acute shortage of Foreign Exchange Currency (Forex). Beyond this, the regime has irresponsibly allowed external debt to explode up to US$46 billion, with no chance to repay or even service this debt—nor can the regime secure further substantial loans, even within the Arab world.

And without the required Forex, the regime cannot import key staples: cooking fuel and wheat to be ground into flour for bread. The reports of shortages, including in the Khartoum area, are relentless, a sure sign that the regime has essentially exhausted its hard currency reserves. This is a dangerous deterioration in Sudan’s economic situation, detailed in several Radio Dabanga dispatches:

Sudanese economists warn for rise of commodity prices | May 19, 2015 | Khartoum

Sudan's inflation rate more than 24 percent in April | May 18, 2015 | Khartoum

Cooking gas and bread crises widen in Sudan | April 28, 2015 | Khartoum / Wad Madani

Cooking gas and bread crises continue in Sudan | April 23, 2015 | New Half / Kurti / Khartoum

Cooking gas shortage: charcoal, firewood prices skyrocket in Sudan | January 18, 2015 | North Darfur / Khartoum

Cooking gas crisis spreading in Sudan | January 8, 2015 | Khartoum / El Gezira

Sudan becomes 'major weapons producer' | February 25, 2015 | Abu Dhabi / Khartoum

[Given the dire straits of the economy, and the gross mismanagement of the agricultural sector over the past 25 years, it is difficult to imagine a more misguided investment of national resources. But this has been true of the regime during its entire time in power, and only a decade of booming oil revenues prevented an earlier day of economic reckoning—ER]

Even more worrisome, should the Melut basin oil fields in Upper Nile (South Sudan) be shut down, Khartoum would lose the transit fees it presently collects from the oil companies of the Petrodar consortium as well as from South Sudan. Such an additional loss of Forex would be crippling in the near term and might prompt military action by the SAF against the forces of South Sudan. A June 2015 report from Conflict Armament Research makes clear that Khartoum has for many months been supplying the forces of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/in Opposition (SPLA/iO), nominally led by Riek Machar. This is confirmation of what was revealed in the leaked minutes of a meeting of the regime’s most senior military and security officials in Khartoum on August 31, 2014. Several voices called for a strategically significant arming of the SPLA/iO. Were Khartoum to take an active role in the fighting over the Upper Nile oil fields, full-scale North/South war would seem to be inevitable.

The impact on Darfur of an imploding economy will take primary form in sharply rising food prices, something already evident in many locations, and certain to get worse as we move further into the “lean season” or “hunger gap” between spring planting and fall harvest. Food provided by the UN’s World Food Program must travel further to reach West Darfur (and parts of “Central Darfur” that were previously part of West Darfur) than any other Darfur state. Moreover, the WFP is running out of money for its operations in Darfur, and according to UN reports may soon be forced to reduce rations, something that has happened on a number of occasions in the past.

Given food shortages in and around Khartoum, we should also expect to see diversion of humanitarian food supplies, which can take any number of forms (import taxes, transportation surtaxes, local sales, or outright theft or appropriation). It has also become much more expensive to hire truck drivers to move food throughout Darfur because of the extremely high levels of insecurity and frequent hijackings of vehicles.

UNAMID withdrawal from West Darfur

The fundamental goal of this digest is to represent the level of violence and insecurity that currently prevails in West Darfur, as defined by what we learn from Radio Dabanga. The dispatches here, organized by topic, are all from the past six months.

If UNAMID is indeed withdrawn from West Darfur, remaining international humanitarian organizations will almost certainly leave as well: remaining in such an insecure and unmonitored environment would exceed all warning indications dictating withdrawal from a particular humanitarian theater. And with UNAMID and the INGOs go the last international eyes that might give us a sense of what is actually occurring in West Darfur, beyond what will continue to be reported by Radio Dabanga, a news source not taken nearly seriously enough by those fashioning Darfur policies. To be sure, UNAMID’s own reporting record is dismal, as the fiasco of the Tabit rape investigation made all too clear; but they are on occasion able to bear witness. INGOs can’t speak out publicly, although they can report conditions on the ground to those who will use the information cautiously. But there certainly won’t be any outside visitors if UNAMID is forced to withdraw from West Darfur; a recent Radio Dabanga dispatch will become boilerplate if UNAMID does withdraw:

No visa for Western diplomats intending to visit Darfur | April 22, 2015 | Washington

Nonetheless, the men in Khartoum expect that their nominal commitment to the contrived and worthless “Darfur Document for Peace in Darfur” will insulate them from international pressure, hence dispatches of this sort:

 EU assured that “Darfur Peace will be respected” January 27, 2015 | Khartoum

This is of course nonsense, but the EU has trouble saying as much—perhaps even believing as much. They have made of themselves a serious obstacle to real peace by too often accepting such “assurances” at face value, and continuing to support the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur long after it was clear that this fabricated agreement had no traction whatsoever in Darfuri civil society. Despite the familiar EU double-talk, the complete failure of the DDPD is clear if we attend to Radio Dabanga’s dispatches (and this is certainly not an exhaustive compendium):

Current violence in West Darfur, from which there will be no international protection in the event of a UNAMID withdrawal

Sudanese-Chadian troops torture villagers in West Darfur | April 27, 2015 | Sirba Locality, West Darfur

[Note on administrative nomenclature: what is referred to as a “locality” by Radio Dabanga is designated as a “rural council” in the UN’s Darfur Field Atlases—ER]

“Government militiamen” attack displaced in West Darfur | January 4, 2015 | Kereinik, West Darfur

Man abducted for ransom in West Darfur | May 19, 2015 | Kereinik Locality, West Darfur

Militiamen threaten to torch West Darfur camp | April 17, 2015 | Kereinik, West Darfur

One killed, five injured in Darfur robbery raids | June 4, 2015 | Tawila / Sirba, West Darfur

Militiamen kill farmers, destroy crops in Darfur | March 10, 2015 | Mershing / Wadi Salih, West Darfur

Gunmen kill man, injure two, torch market in Darfur | December 9, 2014 | Darfur

Displaced molested by militiamen in West Darfur’s Sirba | May 3, 2015 | Sirba Locality, West Darfur

West Darfur displaced tortured by military intelligence | April 22, 2015 | Sirba Locality, West Darfur

Darfur’s militiamen lash women, shoot man near camps | April 21, 2015| Kabakiya / Nyala / Kendebe, West Darfur

One dead, another injured in Central and West Darfur attacks | June 1, 2015 | Niertiti / Murnei, West Darfur

Two dead in East and West Darfur shootings | March 5, 2015 | Ed Daein / Garsila, West Darfur

Displaced people in West Darfur beaten or kidnapped by militiamen | May 15, 2015 | Sirba and El Geneina, West Darfur

One killed in El Geneina-Zalingei road robbery, Darfur | February 20, 2015 | El Geneina and Sirba, West Darfur

Guards, militia members kill three in Darfur | February 20, 2015 | Ed Daein / El Fasher / Mukjar, West Darfur

Three killed by herders, militiamen in Darfur | December 19, 2014 | Darfur

West Darfur farmers despair militant herders | December 12, 2014 | Kereinik, West Darfur

West Darfur residents flee as herders threaten to attack | December 5, 2014 | Kereinik, West Darfur

Herders' attacks on West Darfur villages continue | December 4, 2014 | West Darfur

West Darfur security agents beat up electoral candidate | April 2, 2015 | Sirba Locality, West Darfur

Man killed in gunmen's attack on West Darfur village | January 23, 2015 | Kereinik, West Darfur

Arms, ammo stolen in attack on West Darfur police station | March 5, 2015 | Kereinik, West Darfur

Government militias control Karnoi, Um Baru, Kutum water sources in North Darfur | February 8, 2015 | Karnoi / Um Baru / Kutum [North Darfur]

[Although this dispatch reports on North Darfur, the same pattern of controlling water sources is occurring in West Darfur, with enormously destructive implications for the African farming populations—ER]

Violence in the form of fires, some clearly arson

Inferno destroys 45 houses in Abu Suruj camp, West Darfur | February 8, 2015 | Sirba Locality, West Darfur

Inferno at West Darfur’s Kerendig camp | March 1, 2015 | Kerendig Camp, West Darfur

Fires break out in various parts of Darfur | May 28, 2015 | Darfur, West Darfur

Sheikh dies in West Darfur camp fire | February 24, 2015 | Kendebe Camp, West Darfur

Fire destroys homes in West Darfur camp | December 10, 2014 | Sirba Locality, West Darfur

[With the withdrawal of UNAMID, dismal as its reporting record has been, we may be sure that arson will never be investigated or prosecuted; the regime calculates that it will be easy to empty camps for the displaced: simply burn them to the ground—ER]

Sexual violence is unrelenting throughout Darfur, including West Darfur

Women, girl gang-raped in West Darfur’s Sirba | April 30, 2015 | Sirba Locality, West Darfur

West Darfur child killed in savage rape | February 19, 2015 | El Geneina, West Darfur

[It is insufficiently noted, even by Radio Dabanga, what the fates are of the young girls who endure the utter horror and physical destruction of violent gang-raping. Many certainly suffer the fate of this nine-year-old girl—ER]

Displaced girl raped, “two men arrested” in West Darfur | May 8, 2015 | Sirba, West Darfur

A displaced girl of twelve years old was raped by five men in Sirba locality, West Darfur, on Wednesday. She is in the hospital, while the police have taken two people into custody. The coordinator of the camps for displaced people in Sirba reported the incident, which happened east of Sirba, to Radio Dabanga. He said that the militiamen wore military uniforms and that they raped the victim near Abu El Rish, in one of the valleys close to a camp. “People found the girl bleeding on the ground in one of the valleys. She was taken to the hospital in Sirba, and then to El Geneina, for treatment.” He added that the incident was reported to the police, and claimed that they managed to arrest two of the perpetrators.

[Sirba is one of the most violent and unstable places in West Darfur, and it is extremely unlikely that the police apprehended two militia perpetrators, and even less likely that the men will be prosecuted: these brutal men rape with complete impunity—ER]

Woman raped in El Geneina locality, West Darfur | December 7, 2014 | El Geneina Locality, West Darfur

Two raped near displaced camp in West Darfur | December 19, 2014 | Kereinik, West Darfur

Upsurge of attacks in Central Darfur, rape attempt in West Darfur | December 26, 2014 | Mukjar / El Geneina, West Darfur

Violence against Darfuri students, a number from West Darfur

Darfuri students in Sudan "in dangerous situation" | May 19, 2015 | Omdurman

Seventeen wounded in second attack on students in Khartoum | May 13, 2015 | Khartoum

Two Darfuri students detained, five wounded in Khartoum | May 28, 2015 | Khartoum

The future of humanitarian assistance and humanitarian needs in West Darfur

There can be no understanding violence in West Darfur, or anywhere in Darfur, without understanding the consequences of violence for those displaced, the way in which relief access has been attenuated, and the general severe trauma that has been endured by the population. Mental health issues are not represented in this analysis, but they are a very significant part of overall morbidity, especially among children and victims of rape.

Regional context

Radio Dabanga has consistently reported, in detail, on humanitarian conditions and the suffering endured by those in camps for displaced persons, many of which have been subject to attack, looting, and even arson. Humanitarian indicators provided by various sources also make clear that despite the resources of the international relief community, the region is declining along with the rest of Darfur. By any measure, humanitarian capacity has been sharply reduced, even as insecurity has risen. To take but one example, provided by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in a useful “infographic” map of Darfur:

Resources allocated to address the humanitarian needs of people affected by insecurity in Darfur have continued to decline since 2009. Darfur has also seen a corresponding drop in the number of aid workers since this time. As of 30 June 2009, the number of national and international aid workers in Darfur dropped from 17,700 to 12,658 when 13 INGOs were expelled. This further decreased to 6,850 in 2013, and by 30 November 2014 only 5,540 aid workers in international organisations remain in Darfur.

Less than a third of the humanitarian workers present six years ago are now in Darfur; 97 percent of them are Sudanese nationals, with only three percent of workers coming from outsider Sudan. And this has affected West Darfur as much as the other parts of Darfur, even as the overall scale of the relief challenges is not smaller but rather greater.

After years of deliberately downplaying the number of displaced persons, the official UN figure for displaced persons is now 2.55 million; the real number is almost certainly considerably greater, and this does not include the roughly 370,000 Darfuri refugees in eastern Chad: they too are “displaced.” OCHA estimates in the same document that 4.4 million Darfuris are currently in need of humanitarian assistance, and again, this figure does not include the very substantial refugee population in eastern Chad. The best estimate of the pre-war population of Darfur is 6 million, although there is no true census of record. Hundreds of thousands have been killed, perhaps as many as half a million. And twelve years after the beginning of genocidal counter-insurgency, two thirds of the population will continue to need humanitarian assistance. (For regular updates on humanitarian conditions in Darfur, see OCHA’s weekly bulletin series.

For their part, Darfuris, in camps and rural areas—much as they despise UNAMID for its lack of effective action and reporting—are clearly against any withdrawal of whatever meager provision of security the force provides. They are also well aware that if UNAMID withdraws, the few International Nongovernmental Humanitarian Organizations (INGOs) remaining are unlikely to stay without any protection other than that provided by the Khartoum regime.

For its part, the regime has made no secret of its hostility of to those INGOs who are doing what Khartoum itself has not done, and is not inclined to do, by way of assisting the people of Darfur:

Sudan expels top UN officials | December 25, 2014 | Khartoum

Sudan has ordered two top officials from the United Nations to leave the country by the end of this year. The move is a surprise as the two most senior UN officials in Sudan are both not involved in UNAMID, the peacekeeping operation that was asked to leave a month ago. The officials are heading the largest humanitarian development agency in Sudan… The reason for the expulsions was not clear, and Sudan's Foreign Ministry declined to comment.

MSF-Belgium suspends aid in East and South Darfur, Blue Nile | January 29, 2015 | New York

The Belgian branch of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF/Doctors Without Borders) today announced the closure of its activities in Sudan, owing to “the Sudanese government’s systematic denial of access to people trapped in conflict areas.” In a press release today, MSF states that a total denial of access to Blue Nile state, forced closure of activities in East Darfur, and administrative obstacles and blockages in South Darfur “have made it impossible for MSF to respond to medical emergencies in these areas.”

Altogether more than two dozen international humanitarian relief organizations have been expelled—thirteen at one stroke in March 2009. Many individuals have been singled out for expulsion, as with the senior UN officials noted in the dispatch above. Other organizations have withdrawn for security reasons. Many more have been expelled from other parts of the country, including Eastern Sudan. A regime-imposed humanitarian blockade remains in place in rebel-controlled areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, denying critical relief to many hundreds of thousands of increasingly desperate civilians.

Malnutrition:

It is important here to note the malnutrition data in a leaked UNICEF document from last year, first released by Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times; below are excerpts for Darfur from “Malnutrition Defined/UNICEF”:

• The rate of Acute Malnutrition among children in West Darfur is 8 percent.

• Chronic malnutrition among children in Sudan is widespread and pervasive:

Central Darfur: 45 percent

East Darfur: 40 percent

West Darfur: 35 percent

North Darfur: 35 percent

South Darfur: 26 percent [end of report excerpt]

These are shocking figures and demonstrate just how little the current regime has done to provide food security for its citizens, in Darfur or in other areas that also struggle with chronic malnutrition. That the data have been withheld from wider circulation by UNICEF is scandalous, but reflects the level of intimidation created by the Khartoum regime. One person who was not intimidated was the former head of UNICEF in Sudan, Nils Kastberg, who made the deliberate and consequential suppression of key data explicit:

Nils Kastberg [said in October 2010] that Khartoum is preventing his agency from releasing reports about malnutrition in IDP camps. “Part of the problem has been when we conduct surveys to help us address issues, in collaboration with the ministry of health, very often other parts of the government such as the humanitarian affairs commission [HAC] interferes and delays in the release of reports, making it difficult for us to respond [in a] timely [manner],” he said.

[In an earlier interview with Radio Dabanga, Kastberg had also declared]: “Sometimes it is security services that hinder access or delay access, sometimes it is the humanitarian affairs office [HAC] that delays the release of nutritional surveys. Sometimes it is delays in granting permissions and visas. It is different sections of different [government] institutions which interfere in our work.” (http://www.radiodabanga.org/node/4997 )

This is the context in which to understand the global data from the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which estimates the current “burden” of people suffering from Acute Malnutrition in all of Sudan is staggering 2 million.

The need for clean water is acute throughout Darfur, and indeed Sudan as a whole:

Drinking water crises throughout Darfur | March 6, 2015 | El Radoom / Adila / Tawila

About 100,000 newly displaced in Darfur not reached with any aid | June 4, 2015 | Khartoum

[Many of these are from West Darfur—ER]

Funding constraints end aid operations in Darfur and Kordofan | May 15, 2015 | Kadugli / Sirba, West Darfur

Drinking water crises in West and South Darfur | February 22, 2015 | Nyala / Murnei, West Darfur

Meningitis cases, drinking water shortage in Khartoum | May 29, 2015 | Omdurman

The Children's Emergency Hospital in Omdurman has received more than 50 cases of meningitis within the past two weeks, amid a severe heat wave that sweeps central Sudan. Residents in parts of Khartoum took to the streets in protest against drinking water cuts.

Primary medical care:

[Crises elsewhere give us a glimpse of West Darfur’s future, where a humanitarian blockade can be mounted effortlessly and with no international witnesses—ER]

Health care blockade claims three children in Darfur’s East Jebel Marra | March 1, 2015 | East Jebel Marra

[A health crisis in one area may spread very quickly, as is the case with measles—ER]

“Measles spread in Darfur, eastern Sudan”: health ministry | April 21, 2015 | Khartoum

2,169 measles cases, 27 deaths reported in Sudan | April 30, 2015 | Khartoum

The OCHA Sudan Weekly Bulletin | May 17, 2015 reports that as of mid-May, there were 2,336 confirmed cases of measles, including 653 deaths; the measles epidemic is disproportionately affecting West Darfur, where there are 650 cases, second only to the Khartoum region.

Disease kills 21 Darfuri children in Chad | March 30, 2015 | Eastern Chad

[There has been a precipitous drop in the funding for relief operations to assist Darfuri refugees in eastern Chad; morbidity and mortality will surely continue to increase—ER]

If humanitarians are forced to withdraw from West Darfur because of a deployment out of the area by UNAMID, their vaccination programs will come to an end. Given the highly contagious nature of diseases such as measles, the situation would pose a grave health threat to the rest of Darfur, and indeed all of Sudan. At the same time, we must remember just how vulnerable humanitarian organizations are in Darfur. Catholic Relief Services (CRS) issued the following statement in 2011 about Khartoum’s allegations that CRS was distributing Bibles among those it served:

Catholic Relief Services (CRS) has worked in West Darfur, Sudan since 2004 and has established strong partnerships with the community and local government in the area. CRS remains committed to meeting the immediate and long-term development needs of more than 500,000 people of Darfur regardless of race, religion or nationality. Recently allegations have been made that CRS has distributed Bibles in West Darfur. CRS strongly denies these allegations. CRS does not distribute Bibles. The distribution of Bibles would be a violation of our policy…. The allegations have resulted in perceived safety threats to our staff and CRS was forced to temporarily close our Darfur offices and relocate staff. We hope to resume our critical aid and development work in West Darfur as soon as possible. [end of statement]

At the time CRS was the leading implementing partner for the World Food Program in West Darfur, and remains in the region. It is not likely that the organization will be able to continue if UNAMID withdraws.

It is difficult to find a census of international relief organizations that remain in West Darfur, but the UN’s Common Humanitarian Fund for 2015/First Round Allocations indicates that the following organizations are receiving support for work in West Darfur:

• Catholic Relief Services (several funded projects): shelter and non-food items (NFI); humanitarian support to disaster and conflict-affected communities; protective and life-saving education services for IDP children;

• International Medical Corps (several funded projects): Supporting delivery of quality and life saving primary healthcare services to vulnerable communities in Central, South, and West Darfur;

ª International Organization for Migration (IOM): Displacement Tracking Matrix; registration, tracking, and assessments of mobile populations in Sudan;

• World Relief: Support primary health care services for vulnerable groups in Kereinik and Geneina locality, West Darfur;

 The UN’s World Health Organization: Emergency life-saving services for the communities affected by conflict, displacement and disasters in 38 high priority localities in Sudan [including] West Darfur: Kereinik (without Murnei camp) and Jebel Moon.

• Strikingly, only one Sudanese National Nongovernmental Organization (NNGO) is listed as receiving UN support for work in West Darfur: Sudanese Organization for Rehabilitation and Construction, for work to “assist vulnerable long-term IDPs, newly displaced and disaster-affected population and returnees with emergency shelter (ES), non-food items, and environmental-friendly transitional shelters in West and Central Darfur.”

A great many organizations that previously worked in West Darfur have been expelled or came to regard the region as too insecure. Save the Children/USA was once the organizing INGO in West Darfur, but was expelled without cause along with twelve other INGOs in March 2009. In the process, Khartoum stripped the departing organizations of a wide range of assets, as well as making exorbitant claims for unpaid fees and salaries, that amounted collectively to tens of millions of dollars—unavailable for humanitarian work in other parts of the world.

Food security, malnutrition, and morbidity/mortality:

No organization is listed as an “implementing partner” for the UN’s World Food Program, not even Catholic Relief Services, which performed this task at least through 2011. Unsurprisingly, Radio Dabanga has frequently reported on WFP’s use of “food brokers” to distribute food, which inevitably increases significantly the cost of food distribution—or, as is more likely, reduces the amount of food distributed to those most in need. It is important to remember that primary health care and food security are deeply linked: malnutrition is the greatest risk factor for disease and death, especially for children under five.

Many more organizations are listed as receiving support for operations in “Central Darfur,” particularly those areas (of what was formerly West Darfur) that have been most ravaged over the past twelve years and currently face the greatest threats of violence and deprivation. If Khartoum does indeed succeed in compelling UNAMID to withdraw from West Darfur, we may be sure that Central Darfur is next of the list.

29 veterinarians quit in West Darfur | March 31, 2015 | El Geneina

The West Darfur Minister of Agriculture and Livestock has accepted the resignation of 29 veterinarians in the state. The veterinarians submitted their resignation mid-2014, in protest against the appointment of Animal Production graduates as directors at the Ministry’s livestock departments in the West Darfur localities.

[Such cronyism is endemic in Sudan under the current regime; that it costs West Darfur 29 veterinarians is a very serious matter, given the importance of livestock in the food security of these people—ER]

World Food Programme to re-classify needs of Darfur displaced | June 5, 2015 | Khartoum

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) is conducting a survey among the displaced living in the Darfur camps, in order to classify them according to their needs. WFP representative Bakri Osman said in an interview with Radio Dabanga, of which the first part will be broadcast today (Friday), that the process began last year in some of the camps, and will be completed early next year. The UN agency, in collaboration with partner organisations and camp leaders, has gathered information from 600,000 displaced at 25 out of the 50 camps targeted this year. Osman explained that the information determining the standard of living of each household is obtained through a questionnaire, designed and implemented by a WFP team, in cooperation with the local community.

[Ordinarily this might seem a prudent measure; but in the context of declining donor contributions to relief efforts in Darfur, it is difficult not to see this as an exercise driven by inadequate funding rather than by a truly objective effort to “re-classify” people according to need—ER]

He commended the cooperation by the displaced and their understanding of the classification process, which, he said, has not been completed yet. The final classification into four categories will be based on the results of the survey. The WFP is currently providing food assistance to 1,400,000 displaced in 50 Darfur camps. 900,000 of them receive foodstuffs, while 600,000 receive food vouchers.

OCHA reported in its Weekly Bulletin of 18 January 2015 that donor funding to the nutrition sector has been declining since 2010. In its weekly Sudan bulletin of May 31, 2015, OCHA reported that,

... the WFP voucher programme [is] severely underfunded. Funding for WFP cash and voucher assistance is facing a severe shortfall, with a complete break in funding anticipated from July onwards. WFP estimates the extent of this funding shortfall at almost $24.8 million, including $18.4 million in transfer value for the next six months. In response, WFP has already halted a number of expansion plans and will likely cut rations in some locations for the month of June. [June is the very height of the traditional “hunger gap” between spring planting and fall harvest—ER]

If no urgent funds are mobilized however, WFP may have to further disrupt the voucher distribution cycle with more extensive ration cuts or even complete suspension of the programme. This puts almost 500,000 people, mostly IDPs, at risk of receiving no voucher assistance from September onwards.

[Beyond this terrifying prospect, it remains an open question as to whether WFP will be able to continue operating in West Darfur if UNAMID withdraws; WFP relies on “implementing partners” to distribute food, or food vouchers, since it doesn’t begin to have the manpower required for such an enormous task: will there be any such “implementing partners” to assist WFP in West Darfur?—ER]

Deteriorating security for humanitarians and UNAMID personnel: 

“Upsurge of crime targeting humanitarian operations in Central Darfur,” is the header in OCHA Humanitarian Bulletin, May 24, 2015.

[What can we expect in West Darfur if only Khartoum provides “security”? – ER]

It is important to remember that humanitarians in Darfur have from the beginning of their deployment in large numbers (2004) been constantly subjected to harassment, various forms of intimidation, violence at the hands of local officials and police, denied visas for extended periods of time, and often subsequently denied the travel permits that allow for movement from Khartoum to Darfur. Humanitarian supplies have been delayed without reason for unconscionable periods of time, including urgently needed medical supplies. Humanitarian officials and organizations have been expelled from Sudan by the regime on a regular basis, as noted above. Access to areas critically in need (most of Jebel Marra, for example) is denied to relief workers. UN access maps—showing where relief workers are permitted to travel and security allows—reveal a steady contraction of operating space.

Given the perception of West Darfur that Khartoum is attempting to project, humanitarian organizations remaining in West Darfur after any UNAMID withdrawal are likely to be subject to an intense version of these chronic abuses. A recent incident, “deeply regretted” by the UN Secretary General, demonstrates just how cruel Military Intelligence (the regime’s primary organ of control in Darfur) can be:

“The Secretary-General … deeply regrets that, on 26 April, the Government of Sudan denied a flight request for the emergency medical evacuation of an Ethiopian peacekeeper injured while forming his duties in Mukjar in West Darfur. The peacekeeper died hours later.” (Statement of April 28, 2015)

This supreme callousness will be fully at work in West Darfur, if with other targets, should UNAMID withdraw. Such a hostile environment raises a host of questions:

 How will large transports of food by the UN’s World Food Program be conducted? Who will protect convoys once they reach West Darfur?

 What happens in the event of a major outbreak of violence against civilians, especially those in camps, if UNAMID is not present and not able (legally or logistically) to return on an emergency basis?

• What will happen if camps for displaced persons are systematically destroyed, and people are simply told to “return to your homes”—which in almost all cases no longer exist, have been seized by Arab militias or opportunistic groups, or are far too insecure to permit a resumption of agricultural life?

• How will the 370,000 refugees in eastern Chad feel that it is safe to repatriate?

Another key issue raised by the prospect of UNAMID’s withdrawal from West Darfur

Who will teach the young how to reconcile in this cauldron of violence? how to gain usable work skills?

Teacher shortage closes basic school in West Darfur | February 10, 2015 | Sirba Locality, West Darfur

Severe teacher shortage in West Darfur | March 15, 2015 | Sirba Locality, West Darfur

UNICEF: Sudan to start enrolment campaign for 300,000 out-of-school children | May 31, 2015 | Khartoum

[The teachers and students of West Darfur are unlikely to see the benefits of this effort if violence accelerates with the withdrawal of UNAMID—ER]

Many hundreds of thousands of children have lost their childhoods, and their chance to become educated adults. The long-term effects of such loss and deprivation will be one of the greatest obstacles to a truly just and lasting peace for the region. Employment opportunities for people coming of age in camps that are ghastly “suburbs” of Nyala, El Fasher, and El Geneina will be few, and transportation from their homes in camps—which every day become more permanent—will be too expensive. It is difficult not to see explosive problems in such a future.

Conclusion: The Genocide Continues

The Darfur genocide will continue until the international community brings sufficient pressure on Khartoum to halt its ethnically-targeted destruction. There is increasing hesitation in some quarters to use the word “genocide” to describe what seems chaotic violence, not always under Khartoum’s control—and indeed often resulting in attacks on or hostility towards the Sudan Armed Forces and local officialdom. The situation is made more complex by the realities of significant inter-Arab tribal fighting, particularly in East Darfur (formerly South Darfur) where there seems to be no stable truce between the Rezeigat and Ma’aliya groups around the Abu Karinka area (Radio Tamazuj, May 12, 2015). Inter-marriage and changes in economic status have also, over many generations, worked to blur  ethnic identity in many cases.

But if we look at those who have died, have been raped, have been displaced, have been forced to live in camps with often appalling conditions, or have suffered most from the appropriation of lands and possessions, we are looking at a population that is, by design, overwhelming African in character. Besides the enormous mortality and morbidity totals to date, two key parts of the 1948 UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crimes of Genocide remain fully relevant:

“Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part”

“Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group”

The latter actions take the form of rape in Darfur; for not only are rapes frequently so violent as to be fatal, the fact of rape causes enormous familial and social disruption for the victim. Often she cannot bear children because of the violence of the rapes; fistulas are also common; but most significantly, these women face much diminished prospects for marriage and child-bearing. Some men peremptorily divorce their wives on learning of their being raped. Other women are scarred by their attackers, to ensure that the fact of their having been raped is always visible. Rapes are frequently committed before family members or larger social groups, ensuring that memory will be scarred even without physical evidence.

Rape is a weapon of war in Darfur, as all who have studied and reported on this terrible reality have concluded. Rapists—whether in militia forces or the Sudan Armed Forces—have systematically targeted African women because of their ethnicity. To be sure there are random acts of sexual violence in a chaotic and deeply insecure region; but even these are typically reported as having been committed by an individual or groups of Arab ethnicity.

Collectively there have been tens of thousands of rapes of women and girls over the past twelve years in Darfur and eastern Chad—likely many tens of thousands, although such a conclusion is necessarily inferential. For its part the UN has been intimidated by Khartoum into under-reporting sexual violence and refusing to discuss it as a major issue in the region. But the vast number of rapes and their systematic ethnic targeting make clear the relevance of the 1948 Genocide Convention. This may not be medical sterilization, castration, or any of the other methods Raphael Lemkin had in mind when he drafted what would become the Convention; but the effect of massive, systematically targeted rape of African Darfuri women and girls is undoubtedly a brutal method “intended to prevent births within the group.”

Even more clearly relevant to the situation in Darfur is the clause speaking of “deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.”

This is and has long been the very definition of Khartoum’s counter-insurgency war against the civilians perceived as supporting rebel groups—civilians known to be overwhelmingly of African ethnicity. International jurisprudence has established that the question is one of intentnot motive. And while it is often thought that “intent” is more difficult to establish than “motive,” this is a problematic claim and moves us into the more philosophical realm of human psychology. But it is certainly the case that we can infer intent from acts or declarations: a sufficient number of acts of the same character allow us to infer a specific intent.

In Darfur, we have countless accounts of the destruction of villages, poisoning or demolishing water wells, burning of dwellings and markets, denial of access to water points, burning food- and seed-stocks, looting or killing livestock, destroying agricultural implements—the list goes on and on. These are acts “calculated” to “bring about the physical destruction” of people dependent on all that has been taken from them by the violence Khartoum continues to orchestrate. The violence may be more chaotic than in the earlier years of the genocide, but even in allowing this chaos Khartoum reveals its “intent” for the African people of Darfur.

As for declarations of “intent,” I invoke again the words emanating from the headquarters of Musa Hilal, the most notorious of the Janjaweed leaders, in a memo written in August 2004 (here as cited by Julie Flint and Alex de Waal):

The ultimate objective in Darfur is spelled out in an August 2004 directive from [Janjaweed paramount leader Musa] Hilal’s headquarters: “change the demography” of Darfur and “empty it of African tribes.” Confirming the control of [Khartoum's] Military Intelligence over the Darfur file, the directive is addressed to no fewer than three intelligence services—the Intelligence and Security Department, Military Intelligence and National Security, and the ultra-secret “Constructive Security,” or Amn al Ijabi.  (Julie Flint and Alex de Waal, Darfur: A Short History of a Long War, Zed Books, 2005)

Much has happened since August 2004; but Musa Hilal, freed by Khartoum from prison for murders he had committed in order to lead the northern Janjaweed on their genocidal rampage, is still needed by the regime. And as a March dispatch from Radio Dabanga makes clear, the partn

ership is an apt one:

Al Bashir urges people of Darfur “to expel the devil” | March 23, 2015 | Nyala

Addressing a rally in Nyala, South Darfur, on Thursday, the incumbent president said that the 2011 Doha Document for Peace in Darfur has met all the demands of the Darfuris. “There is no longer any need for carrying arms, except for those who want to undermine peace.  It was the devil that entered Darfur, dismantled the social fabric, and divided the people until they disagreed, and began fighting with each other,” he said in his electoral campaign speech, urging the Darfuris to curse the devil, and “expel him by deeds, not by words.”

Sheikh Musa Hilal, former Janjaweed leader and head of the Mahameed tribe in Darfur, announced that his Revolutionary Awakening Council has decided to support the candidacy of the incumbent Sudanese president.

The “devil” indeed “entered Darfur,” although in the form of evil conceived in Khartoum. And of course one common rendering of Janjaweed, of uncertain authority, is “devils on horseback.” Whatever the etymological standing of the translation, it tells us far too much about Darfur today—and about the dangers that will only increase in West Darfur if it is traded out in a compromise deal between the UN and African Union on the one hand and the Khartoum regime on the other.

Eric Reeves is the Author of Compromising With Evil: An archival history of greater Sudan, 2007-2012   www.CompromisingWithEvil.org

Peace and War: Whose interest is it in South Sudan?

“Peace can only be achieved through strength, but never ever in weakness because those who have changed the world have done it this way. So we too, should do it in the same way in South Sudan.” Professor David de Chand
“Peace cannot be kept by forced, it can only be achieved by understanding.” Professor Albert Einstein
“If you want peace, you don’t talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.” Archbishop Desmond Tutu
“Courageous people do not fear forgiving for the sake of peace.” President Nelson Mandela, South Africa

By Professor David de Chand, Ph.D

BACKGROUND

April 24, 2015 (SSNA) -- The ongoing crisis in South Sudan for the past sixteen (16) months or so has been a struggle between the forces of “democracy” calling for “democratic change” and the resistance by the forces of dictatorship or what the Chinese called the “democratic dictatorship or the “military dictatorship’ or the “organized dictatorship” specifically designed for the sole benefit of the people of Africa’s youngest state.

Prior to jotting down any ideas or concepts, the preceded quotations from those great minds, high spirits, great thinkers, and peace Ambassadors have been truly and verily related to the ongoing nasty crisis in South Sudan perpetrated by the Dinka dictator Salva Kiir, a child and a woman killer in the 2013 Juba Genocide or minister of death under the pretext of a coup d’état attempt against him (Kiir) allegedly by the former VP Dr. Riek Machar as being the ring leader. Now, there has been no shredded evident to prove beyond a reasonable doubt, that there was no coup d’état attempt. Did the Dinka dictator go berserk to genocide more than 30-50,000 unarmed and helpless people because of their group membership, even if political and economic as an indelible Nuer nationality or ethnicity? We would say to the whole world that the Nuer nation shall and will overcome this ‘black spot’ in its modern political history. It has not been the first time that the Nuer people have been genocide.

The British imperialists did it against the Nuers during the Pacification Policy and cultural genocide in Southern Sudan during the Anglo-Nuer War (1900-1930) otherwise by downgraded the Euro-centric scholars and the abdicates of colonialism or the so-called white supremacists as the Nuer Résistance in which the Nuer Prophets were labeled as being “anti-government” and had to be dealt with accordingly in the name of Her Majesty Government (HMG). The Nuer people one of the largest ethnicity spillover into three countries, namely, Nuer-Ethiopia on southwestern Ethiopia, along 500 Kilometers along South Sudan- Nuer-Ethiopia border and along the 28 to 30,000 Kilometers border between the Republic of Sudan north of the border with South Sudan and remains the largest, expanding and potentially the richest in oilfields and gas fields, including other critical and strategic minerals natural resources throughout South Sudan.

Presently, the New Nuer nation has spread its wings throughout North America, Europe, the Nordic countries, Australia or the World Under, the Arab and the Islamic world and throughout the African continent. Just a reminder to the readers, the Nuer were gassed with Mustard Gas (1915-1920) by the British colonialists during the peak of the Nuer Revolution as a means or the path to surrender or submission because it was the path that we never chose. Salva Kiir’s through external powers and the Ugandan Dictator-for-life Yuri Museveni and the well known killer of African leaders at behest of the Western world, have done it again in the 2013 Juba Genocide. We shall and will overcome this “dark spot” inflicted against us in our contemporary history like the Jews in the Holocaust, the systematic attempt of German authorities during the Second World War to kill all Jews no matter where found-to destroy Jews as a group. More than 5 to 6 Million Jews became the real paradigm case of Genocide and the word’s origin; the 1994 Rwanda Genocide of 80,000 to 1million against the Tutsi’s ethnicity or nationality by the renegades Hutus’; the Armenian Genocide (1915-1920) by the young Turks; the gassing of the Kurds in Iraq by the late Saddam Hussein, the persecution of Rhonyingka Muslim minority community and ethnicity in Myanmar (Burma) the land of the former UN Secretary General U Thant and the 1991Nobel Peace Laureate Ms. Aung Suu Kyi, and the Algerians by the French colonialists in which more than four (4,000,000) Algerians that made Algeria to become known as the land of 4 million martyrs, and the millions massacred by the British in the cause of passive resistance for political independence in India led M.K. Gandhi; the anti-apartheid led by Nelson Mandela’s of the African National Congress (ANC) of South Africa in prison for more 27-year offshore Robin Island Prison for the cause of freedom for all South Africans and the Civil Rights Movement in the United States led by the Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr., for social equality, social justice, freedom and democracy for all Americans both Whites and Blacks, yellow and brown, Spanish and Afro-Asian émigrés in the United States, plus many others not mentioned in this work because of time and space.

The Nuer nation and its resilient people shall and will overcome these tragic things that they (Dinka) have done, which they ought not to have done. We would seek justice and would win justice through our efforts and the international community, the AU, IGAD and the UN if the goal is to seek peace, promotion of the culture of peace and human rights protection. Nevertheless, if the above-mentioned institutions failed to perform their righteous duties and responsibilities against the perpetrators of the 2013 Juba Genocide, we would have no choice, but to seek justice the way we do feel, deem and see fit to achieve it. Reckoning, as President Nelson Mandela of South said he that “Courageous people do not fear forgiving for the sake of peace.” The Nuer nation and its resilient people would give the world community a chance to do its duty and responsibility. However, let there be no mistake that we (the Nuer) cannot wait any longer. We would seek to apprehend the perpetrators of the 2013 Juba Genocide through our own efforts like the Mosad hunted down the Nazis who killed the Jews during the WWII throughout the world.

This is what we would do to hunt every Dinka that participated in committing the gravest and the greatest crimes against humanity against the unarmed and helpless Nuer nationality or ethnicity in the 2013 Juba Genocide. We have the guts and gusto, the capacity and the ability to do it and the Dinka have already smelled what is waiting them at the horizon. We urge and appeal to the Nuer nation and its people to be calmed, we shall not let you down to live with this shame never ever. We shall teach perpetrators of these crimes of genocide a lesion, which they never forget. We should remain vigilant, observance and to know wherever these thugs, renegades and hooligans would do to move around the world. We can rest assured you, we would get them all and to bring them to Justice for that.    

The background of this Holocaust that has targeted the Nuer nationality or ethnicity for extermination as a “final solution” in whole or in part was a result of baseless, unfounded, incredible and hoax coup d’état attempt against Salva Kiir allegedly staged by the former VP Dr. Riek Machar. Realistically, there was no coup d’état, but the Dinka dictator went berserk after having had a few shots of Jack Daniel and Johnny Walker. What shall we do with drunkard Dinka dictator? Was Salva Kiir really drunk?  No comment; let the readers judge it for themselves.

The war started in the failed state of South Sudan more than sixteen (16) months or so ago and still goes on with neither end in sight nor light in the tunnel. The root causes of the war have been multifaceted as we shall discover succinctly in this article. Actually, one of the most basic reasons to cite on the crisis was the coup d’état attempt against the Dinka dictator Salva Kiir allegedly staged his former VP Dr. Riek Machar who turned to become a rebel leader. The perpetrators of this crisis should know that it would not end sooner. It could take minimum of five (5) years to a decade.

The victims of this crisis who have lost their loved ones to the Twic Dinka Militias (Agetweng, Bany Adut, Malwal Anyuol and Malwal Anyier) have been pretty angry even if the IGAD, the AU, the UN and the TROIKA (the US, the UK and Norway) may intervene militarily, but there would be continued war without the IGAD. The Nuer would take war into the Heartland of the Dinka by any means necessary. Moreover, the intervention of the Uganda People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) fighting at behest of Salva Kiir, should recognize that in both short and long terms, there could be some retributions within Uganda and there would be no Dinka militias or soldiers that would come to their rescue as the Ugandans have done so and paid dearly so much as the ultimate sacrifices in terms of lives and property for them in 2013 up to present. They would continue to do so as long as they remain in the quagmire or civil war in South Sudan.

The crisis should focus on the victims and the victimizers that have been identified as the perpetrators of the crisis now facing South Sudan. Any participating minority communities that have not experienced the above-mentioned hardships should only become observers and spectators unless they wish to become part of the problem rather part of the solution. The minority communities have not been affected unless they got involved in the crisis on the side of Salva Kiir like some folks of the Shilluk (Chollo) traditional kingdom I do personally revered and respected so much and the minority Dinka Abilang in northern Upper Nile State should rethink their future in the Greater Upper region at the end of this nasty and brutal war because of the things that they have done, which they ought not to have done. I could only advice them to pack and to move on peacefully to Bahr-el-Ghazel along with Salva Kiir because they would have no place in Greater Upper Nile region. They could not blame the Nuer majority for this action, but their leaders who have ordered them to massacres unarmed and helpless Nuer people in Malakal, Gerger and Renk, including the Police Commissioner who was fighting pretty hard for the protection all folks in Renk City.

The Nuer-Dinka societies have experienced traumas, psychological devastation, pain, suffering and mental anguish, including genocide… generally is considered as one of the worst moral crimes a government- meaning any ruling authority, including that of guerrilla group, a quasi state, a Soviet, a terrorist organization, or an occupation authority can commit against its citizens or those it controls. The UN and the ICC called genocide as the gravest and greatest crimes against humanity. There is no doubt that Salva Kiir regime has targeted the Nuer nationality or ethnicity for extermination as a “final solution” in whole or in part. It was comparable to the Holocaust, the systematic attempt of German authorities during Second World War (WWII) attempt to kill all and every Jew no matter where found-to destroy Jews because of their group membership and as a indelible and religious group. This led to the murdered of 5 to 6 million Jews that became the paradigm of genocide and underlies the word’s origin. This prima facie raison d’être rather ipso facto this was the international attempt through the United Nations to make genocide an international crime or in flagrante delicto and to bring to its perpetrators to justice. Thus, in 1948 the UN proposed the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (CPPCG) in which the ICC state members have signed into law.

Genocide as a crime, the CPPCG defined it as the intention to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such. The ICC accepts this definition, further elaborates it, provides broader jurisdiction and can subject individuals regardless or status or rank or Latin known as “rationae personae” to prosecution. The ICC broadly defines genocide as a crime that covers not only genocide, but crimes against humanity that include, aside from genocide, government murder, extermination campaigns, enslavement, deportation, torture, rape, sexual slavery, enforced, enforced disappearances, and apartheid. The second definition of genocide is called “democide”- that’s the intentional government murder of unarmed and helpless people because of their group membership, even if political or economic for whatever reason. So we should always probed that Genocide is foremost an international crime for which individuals, no matter how high in authority or in Latin known as “rationae Personae” may be indicted, tried, and punished by the ICC. According to Article 6 of the ICC Statute, This crime involves, “any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group as such:

(a)    Killing members of the group;
(b)   Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
(c)    Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
(d)   Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
(e)   Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.”

In terms of the crisis in South Sudan, whether the Government of South Sudan (GOSS), its military intelligence likes it or not, the events, which transferred and targeted the innocent unarmed and helpless Nuer nationality or ethnicity on 15, 16, 17 and 18 December 2013 Juba Genocide, there would be no retreat or forgiveness to any individual persons involved in the process. The SPLA army or as if the party’s army, the Twic Dinka Special Militias that comprises of 3 to 6,000 directed commanded by President Salva Kiir and the notorious Generals Paul Malong Awan and Marial Cinnuor and others whose names do not appear herein, should all be indicted, tried and sentenced for this gravest and the greatest crime against humanity committed against the Nuer nationality and ethnicity because of their group membership and as an indelible group. They should not under no circumstances escape possible in the indictment under Article 6 of the ICC Statute. Actually, if the goal and objective of the national, regional and international actors, i.e., the GOSS, the IGAD, the AU, the UNSC mediators, including the TROIKA (the USA, the UK and Norway) have been determined to bring about peace, political stability and tranquility into Africa’s youngest as if a failed state in South Sudan, they should swift and impartial before it may be too late for the Dinka to conquer the Nuer nation and its resilient people.

The Dinka dictator Salva Kiir and his have accomplices committed the crime of genocide and should be without any delays be investigated, indicted and issued arrest warrants like any another international individuals, nationalists and heads of state and governments regardless of their rationae personae in South Sudan. Failure on the international community to undertakes pretty seriously this Article 6 of the ICC Statute in South Sudan, they should kiss any peace process goodbye because the ferocious Nuer fighters would suck it to the Dinka no matter where found-to destroy the Dinka as a group. They started these killings against our people and we shall and will fight back until they reckon the wrongs that they have done, which they ought not to have done. The national, regional and the international actors may lull the crisis in order to protect their threatened geopolitical and geostrategic economic and the vital strategic nationals interests. Who would represent our interests?  Because the whole world has failed to condemn the deliberated and willful genocide against the Nuer nation and its people, we shall and will undertake whatsoever necessary measures and actions to preserve the Nuer nationality or ethnicity strategic interest to survive like any other nationality, including the Dinka within the jurisdiction of South Sudan. Salva Kiir and Paul Malong Awan should know and underscore that they have aggressed a sleeping giant like Imperial Japan Navy attacked against the US Naval Fleet in Honolulu, Hawaii on Sunday, 7 December 1941; thus, forced the US declared war against Japan on the same day and entered the Second World War (1939-1945). 

The committed genocide against the Nuer nationality no matter happens would remain in our hands, heads, minds, thoughts and we shall and will achieve results no matter, how long and sacrifices we make in the process and in the pursuit of this basic fundamental politico-legal, God’s given and right human rights guaranteed to “all peoples” under international law, international humanitarian law and human rights law by any means necessary. There would be no surrender and this choice, of course, does not exist in the Nuer people’s vocabulary. The Nuer people like Alexander the Great said he that [he] “I am not afraid of an army of lions led by a sheep; he [Alexander the Great] I am afraid of an army led of sheep led by a lion.” In the same vein, the Nuer nation and its resilient people are not afraid of an army lion led by neither a sheep by an army of lions led by a sheep. We also have known that the cost of freedom is always high, but the Nuer have always paid it.  The Nuer nation and its people would like the world to know that one path the Nuer people shall never choose, and that is surrender, or submission. We would like personally for both Salva Kiir and Paul Malong Awan and other Dinka power elite and others, including their so-called 39 laws to know and to underscore this statement for the record for posterity. The Nuer national shall and will defeat the Dinka and they have already smelled this epilogue or epic. No logical Nuer person with sound mind and five senses to forget that the Dinka have been intentionally determined to extinct the Nuer as a nationality in South Sudan, but they have failed in this mission and would be defeated and this has been on specific raison d’être that they brought in the UPDF and its affiliated mercenaries, JEM, SRF and the SPLA-North fighting the Nuer nation at behest of the wicked, weaker and lazy Dinka that every Nuer fighter perceived as equals to one-fourth of a man. They should know that they have started the war against a sleeping giant that was neither sleeping nor an isolationist, but critically and carefully watching, observing, analyzing and was waiting for the fright time and the right place to strike.

Specifically, the Nuer people and leaders have been praying pretty hard that the crisis should not have been started by the Nuer people, but rather by the Dinka power elites who have completely, absolutely and resolutely failed in administering the affairs of the state or the polity and its cultural diversity or multiculturalism; cohesion; national integration; national unity; the process of de-tribalization and the establishment of democratic institutions in this new failed state midwifed by the United States and its European allies and the Chinese as the treasure hunters and siphoning oil prematurely jumps into the van wagon in South Sudan.  The strategy to destroy the Nuer was already planned and shelved in Salva Kiir’s closet and we knew it firsthand from the beginning before the crisis started. It was strategized by the American lobbyists, namely, Roger P. Winter, John Prendergast and Dr. Susan Rice, the current National Security Council (SNC) Advisor in the White House. Succinctly, in my capacity an intellectual and academic expert on African affairs and the US foreign policy agenda (if there was really the US foreign strategic policy in Africa) the Obama Administration had a prior knowledge of the events ahead of time of what would occur inside South Sudan targeting the Nuer people for genocide similar to the Clinton administration prior knowledge of the events in the 1994 Rwanda Genocide.

Let’s assumed that the so-called coup d’état attempt was real, the Nuer people could have been predestined for destruction or extermination in whole or in part like the “Husseineen” in the Yemeni Crisis with backing from Saudi Arabia in which the regional coalition forces have assembled to crush them. As a result, all of the IGAD countries would have assembled a huge military force against the Nuer question in South Sudan for having made a coup d’état attempt against a democratically elected government even though it has been a dictatorship, a soviet, a  Marxist-Leninist, a terrorist and undemocratic regime in Juba. The US-Israeli interests were behind the plan and the Israeli Ambassador to Juba and the former Mosad Chief of Intelligence was the brainchild or the mastermind of the whole orchestrated strategy to destroy the Nuer nationality in South Sudan. It has assumed and calculated that the Nuer people are strong, have closed relations with Khartoum and potentially the richest in oilfields and Gas fields in South Sudan. Therefore, they have negatively perceived as the potential danger to any future US-Israeli geopolitical and geo-strategic economic, political and the national security interests in Africa and Southern Sudan in particular.

In fact, the whole strategic plan has been and would continue to be the designed by the US, Israelis, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia to change the geo-political roadmap to create a “New Middle” that gives Israeli an advantage because of real politico-military threats from both Hamas and Hezbollah freedom fighters that the Israeli military logic fear most and termed them as bunch of “terrorists whilst” forgetting that the State of Israel itself was founded as a terrorist State by the Orgun –a Jewishterror groupled by the late Israeli PM Manchem Begen, including other Euro-Jewish-Zionist leaders in the Middle East. Most importantly, Israel wanted to change the entire Middle East policy roadmap because of the rising of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) as a super-economic and politico-military power in the region. Conclusively, the US-Israeli policy strategy would be to destabilize the entire Middle East, including Turkey, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States Cooperation Council (GCC) at later dates in a kind of a continued Arab Spring and Arab Streets to create or install or establish new pro-Western regimes and to put a ring around Iran rapprochement and encroachment of IRI as a power to be competing for influence with the Israelis in the Middle Eastern region. This was a real concrete Salva Kiir’s strategic cheap shot policy plan agenda, but it’s boomeranged against him because there was no coup d’état staged by the former VP Dr. Riek Machar. So the whole affair was a hoax, deception and the biggest lie of the century. The Nuer nation and its resilient people could not be more than pleased with the ongoing events and developments in South Sudan because the Nuer have been falsely accused throughout the world by the Dinka as bunch of killers and the bad guys on the bloc on the one hand and the Dinka people have been the good guys on the bloc on the other in South Sudan. Who are really the good guys and the bad guys or the cannibal-likes now in the ongoing acute, dangerous, aggravating situation and escalating crisis in South Sudan? Let the readers to determine and to answer the preceded question.

Historically, the Nuer people fought the hardest for South Sudan political independence more than their Dinka counterparts who have not ever started a national liberation movement, but have been so good in hijacking the works or what others have established or built from the scratched by others through a third party. For instance, the late John Garang, raised by the Nuer nationality from abject poverty to become the world’s famous, hijacked the Southern Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SSPLM/SSLA) its founding fathers abated by the former Marxist-Leninist Dirge regime (1971-1991) was founded by the Nuer fighters and led by the late Colonel Samuel Gai Tut. In 1964, the late William Deng Nhial hijacked from the Eqautorians leaders the Southern Sudan African National Union (SANU) and ran away with it to Khartoum and made it to become his personal property to seek political power, money and fame globally and until he died mysteriously during the election campaigns in Gogrial, Bahr-el-Ghazel. 

The Nuer brought South Sudanese the idea of the exercise of the right to self-determination, democracy, federalism, freedom, social justice, social equality and egalitarianism based on the concept of let live in peace,  to co-exist, to become compassionate, to become the “Good Samaritans” and to care for each other rather than hating and killing each other. All of these concepts have been truly the backbone of the Nuer egalitarianism, social equality, social justice, democracy, political culture and political socialization. We [the Nuer] would like to state at the outset that without the ultimate sacrifices made by the Nuer fighters or if we united with the Arabized North, there would have been no independence South Sudan. This has been a fact and without any contradictions that any Arabized Muslim Northerners could attest and admit in any political and military discussion. If the Nuer people, for instance, joined hands with the Arabized Muslim North against the other sixty-three (63) other weaker tribes, including the Dinka, Sudan would have remained united and the Nuer would have become predominant throughout South Sudan for this generation and the next. This episode has been the first and the foremost mistake that the Nuer people have committed, but it was not too late.

In the ensuing crisis, the Nuer fighters shall and will demand that South Sudan become an ethnically federal system of government similar to Ethiopia federal system in which the Nuer who makes up over 85% of the population in Greater Upper Nile and wealth-mainly oil fields and Gas fields, plus other strategic crucial and strategic minerals, fertile agricultural lands, abundant waters, animal and fisheries resources, with equally competent manpower, could cede or cut off the Greater Upper Nile region to become a new state or polity of its own like in Kurdistan-Iraq, Somaliland in Hargeisa, the Island nation of Cyprus- that divided itself  vis-à-vis into two into the Greco-Cypriots on the Westside of the divided Island nation of Cyprus and the Turkish-Cypriots on the Eastside divided Island nation of Cyprus, Abkhazia and South Ostia that broke away from Georgia and recognized by the Russian Federation, the ongoing armed struggle in Ukraine that led Crimea to rejoin Russia in a referendum since it was annexed to Ukraine in 1954 by the late Joseph Stalin Ukraine and other parts of Ukraine have been waging the armed struggle to rejoin Mother Russia and the Christian Enclave of Nagornokarahvk in Armenia and many others test cases that we could not possibly cite in this work because of time and space.  We would eventually, whether we would like it or not, split or secession is going to happen in Greater Upper Nile region at the end of this provoked premature civil war by the wicked and lazy Dinka and their Ugandans allies in South Sudan.

Let’s assume hypothetically that majority of the Southerners do not like the Nuer nationality or ethnicity as a people, but it potential resources, we shall surely cede from South Sudan as an independent and sovereign state under the right to self-determination guaranteed to “all peoples” under international law and the UN Charter. The question that we would like to probe would be this: could South Sudan exist without the Greater Upper Nile region? Affirmatively, there would be no South Sudan without the Greater Upper Nile. We have made and concluded it that this decision-making in any future peace agreement, nothing on the planet-Earth could prevent it to happen. Certainly, some diehards who have postulated it that the international community may not accept this development; my cheap shot answer to anyone thinking way this has been that if the international community could not accept such development in South and accept them elsewhere in the world and in the Middle East in particular, they got to be kidding themselves to reject or deny such political developments in South Sudan. The people of Greater Upper Nile region do not want anything in Juba or Wau, but their own land and resources in Greater Upper Nile for that.

The international community has already set up the laws, resolutions and protocols on the right to self-determination to “all peoples”, why should it deny it to the people of the Greater Upper region or any regions wishing to cede from South Sudan? Why did it allow South Sudan to cede from the mother country-Sudan- in 2011 and now working feverishly under the Rockefeller Plan designed by the American Jews in the past fifty-year (50) of research to split the African nation of Sudan into five (5) to six (6) unviable and un-vibrant nation-states as opposed to one heterogeneous multicultural Sudanese state retrospect to its construction by Turkey in the 1900s similar to the United States or South Africa?  Whilst the international community and the USA in particular, that midwifed the birth of South Sudan, it has been also in the making on midwifery of Darfur to go, the Nuba Mountains to go and Southern Blue Nile (Ingessena) to go and Eastern Sudan to go. The question that we would be obliged to probe would be like this: where do they? Furthermore, the international community under the umbrella of the United States has already begun the construction of the “Nubia State” in the far Northern Sudan. 

Nevertheless, if the international community continuously partitioned, dismembered glued and amalgamated culturally diverse nations and creating new more nation-states within the established nation-states, why should it prevent or deny the same right to the people of Greater Upper Nile?  Assuredly, we shall and will peacefully and responsibly could present and argue this case legally and politically the demand for the right to self-determination before the United Nations, the African Union and the Arab League, including any other international forums to guarantee without any reservations and hesitations or questions to guarantee to the people of Greater Upper Nile region the right to self-determination or secession from South Sudan in the same pattern and fashion that it splinted or partitioned or dismembered the failed Republic of South Sudan from the mother country- the Republic of Sudan- in 2011 north of the border. We made this decision because of the events transferred and orchestrated by the Dinka power elites that intentionally targeted the Nuer nationality or ethnicity for extermination as a “final solution” in whole or in part amongst other multifaceted nationalities and cultural diversities in South Sudan.

The Nuer people have gotten the wealth and the brains, but the Dinka have gotten nothing, lazy, wicked, weak animals that equals one-fourth of human being compared to the , wicked, weak link, poorer, lazy and without resources, they have been temporarily allowed by the Nuer people the strongest and potentially the richest to lead democratically, but because some Dinka people have naturally inculcated the process of “Nuerophobia,” arrogant, stubborn, stupid, dictators undemocratic, negatively sophisticated and remains untamed cannibal-likes individuals, a Soviet’s, a Stalinist‘s state or a Marxist-Leninist like in the 1917 Russian Bolshevik Revolution, which  demised in the late 1990s to the early 2000s through perestroika (restructuring) and glasnost (openness) as the legacy of the former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, apartheid regime in South Africa defeated through passive résistance in the aftermath of more twenty-seven (27) years behind bars by the late President Nelson Mandela and the African National Congress (ANC) colleagues of South Africa or otherwise known
Madibo” figure in South Africa to free all South Africans from the yoke and bastion of apartheid institutionalized by the Boers or the white tribe National Party in 1948 up to its demise of apartheid in 1994 in the Republic of South Africa (RSA)  for that.

To qualify this proposition, if the Dinka males were truly full grown males with balls, the political will, cooperation and the way forward, there were no good reasons for them to have involved the UPDF and its affiliated mercenaries in the domestic affairs of South Sudan. Of Course, the ferocious fighting Nuers proudly have already defeated Salva Kiir’s militias though he (Kiir) remains in Juba at point it’s because of the present of the remnants of the UPDF that would sooner retreat rather than later because of the war fatigue and naturally something bigger and much more dangerous is awaiting them in South Sudan and in Greater Upper Nile region in particular. The fighting Nuers White Army would graciously deliver them this package before they know it in Juba. Therefore, it would be in the best national interest of Uganda’s national interest to get the hell out before all hell could break loose. So we do neither care nor fear the Dinka fighters anymore even if they (Dinka) were to involve the Americans, the Brits and the Norwegians troops like their Ugandans counterparts as if they would become Dinka and they would be defeated because their (Dinka) partners by nature have been created as the weak link by mother Nature or Almighty God the creator of all things above and below for that.

The Nuer rebel fighters, soldiers and the deadly White Army (WA) have proven beyond a reasonable doubt that no matter what the Dinka do in the future and the present, they have been as if already defeated in the centuries past, the future and the present. If they have miscalculated it the logic that it is not the “procured weapons that would do the fighting, but the men and women behind such weapons would be the ones doing the fighting”. In terms of the military logic and strategic studies, it is not often the weapons that make defeats against the enemy possible, but the tactics, the command structure, organization, the leadership that provides encouragement, readiness, commitment and motivation to the men and the women doing the ground fighting or the foot soldiering and the level of training and the spirit of the leadership capabilities and the command structures and experiences for that.  Precisely, the Dinka lack these quantifiable qualities compared to their Nuer counterparts who naturally the qualities in the battlefields. As an American military and NATO trained, the Nuer like the Ghuorkha soldiers from Nepal Units in the British army have been the best any good commander could sacrifice himself or herself to command in any battlefields. The Gorkha Units in British Army from Nepal have proven themselves courageous and brave soldiers in the WWII and in the Falklands during the British- Argentine War of over Malvidas (the Falklands) at the tip of Argentina on the Pacific Ocean. We the Nuer leaders may opt for a treaty with Her Majesty Government to sign up and train young Nuers to serve like the Gorkha counterparts in the British Army such the UK commanders could see and experience what a Nuer soldier could do in the Battlefields for the UK of the future and the present warfare. They have courage, bravery, endurance, stamina and what Albert Einstein termed as the “high spirits” vs. the “mediocre spirits” fighting abilities and capabilities.

The Nuer troopers fight like the IDF, the British Royal Marines, the US Marines Corps, the US Special Forces and the US Army (the big Redone) and the Vietcong in the former French Indo-China against the both French Legionnaires in Ding BienPhooh in the 1950s under the commandof General Vo Nyuen Giap and the American in South Vietnam quagmire under the command of Ho Chi Minh in 1958-1971. The Chinese have taken a side and supply such tons and tons of arms worth billions to Salva Kiir’s regime to kill the Nuer nationality in violation of the historic normal Chinese foreign policy epic of “non-interference” in the domestic affairs of its partners or patrons. What has happened or gone wrong this time around that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has broken this ethical code? This time around though the Chinese have goofed and miscalculated their interests’ in the oilfields and Gas fields located in the Nuerland in South Sudan. The Nuer nation and its resilient people would not allow the Chinese oil companies to continue siphoning or pumping out the oilfields and Gas fields in South Sudan.

Enough is enough because we could not permit the PRC pumping out our oil to supply the enemy with heavy weapons to kill us. They would be kicked out and millions or zillions of dollars debts that they have paid in exchange for oil revenues would surely go into the red. This is the bottom line. We would caution those individuals on our side or in the opposition to be paid off with sumptuous cash secretly by the Chinese oil tycoons; they would at the end be exposed and identified as traitors, collaborators and to justify how they have spent that money either for the cause or personal gains. They should be made ashamed for what they have done before the community leaders and elders if they have opted to use such secret big money from the Chinese oil tycoons for personal gains. We do know this fact that the Chinese have already paid off some guys on our side of the camp, but they do not show it at all, to the commanders to procure the tools that they are greatly in need to get the job done. The leadership of the SPLM-in-Opposition (SPLM-I-Op) should be held accountable for this calculated corruption, embezzlement, patronage before it assumes power in South Sudan.  I rest my case and had to move on.

The Chinese have become the prima facie enemy of the Nuer nation and its people. We (the Nuer) as the true owners of the black gold, would request the Chinese to call it quit and the golden dream of further oil exploration and exploitation would become invalidated, declared as null and void because they have broken the policy of “neutrality” as superpower in South-South crisis and to opted to take side of a child and a woman killer Salva Kiir’s regime in Juba. No Nuer leaders would further support Chinese oil companies continuous present in the oilfields and Gas fields in Greater Upper Nile region for that. We shall and will turn elsewhere to keep the flows of the crude oil or the “Nuer Crude Oil” to the international marketplace for our benefits and development rather the Chinese thieves, stealers and the treasure hunters in Africa. They should be kicked out of South Sudan sooner rather than later. We shall and will place all oilfields and Gas fields to free market completion capitalist style.

We would prefer “privatization” of the oilfields and the Gas fields in the future to eliminate or to reduce corruption that has become the mother of all types of corruption in South Sudan. The purpose of privatization of the oil industry would be to give the little his/her rights and to keep off the big government bureaucrats from accumulating big money that would culminate to the exploitation of the little man. In addition, privatization would keep the revenue for local development- schools, universities and colleges, technical institutes, roads and bridges, transportation infrastructure and building of health care facilities and big hospitals for the good of the local inhabitants. This would also provide corporate fiscal responsibility and socio-development programs for the locals. From the socio-economic viewpoint, the oil belong should belong to the people where it is located and over 80% of the revenue should remain the local areas where the resources have been located and 20% should go to the Central government and not the other way around.

The Chinese government and its oil consortia or multinational oil companies should underscore and know they came to South Sudan through the “Old Sudan” or before Sudan split to become two-sudan states. Notwithstanding, that have two-Sudan states, all previous oil agreements should become invalidated and to be declared as null and void. The Chinese should know that South Sudanese do not like them because we do neither understand them nor do they understand us. We have really both irreconcilable modes of communications and cultural gaps that remained deep and wide. Therefore, we have a big gap of the bridge to be narrowed and that in my opinion could take generations. Because of these irreconcilable gaps and cultural differences, including what the Chinese eat in their diets that they considered to be normal, we have considered then as if abnormal to us. The Nuer people and South Sudanese general, for instance, do not eat dog meat, snakes, and other others things… to say the least. We shall and will go westwards because we do know them and they do know us and South Sudanese relations with the Western world has not been apolitical, but pretty long historic human relations and the Chinese should know and understand wholly and solely these cultural realities and communication factors.

It was Khartoum that invited the Chinese when the country was one predominated by the Arabized Muslim North. Cognizance, that the US championed South Sudan’s birth from Sudan, whose president, Field Marshal Omer Hassan Al-Bashir, loathed, and whom it referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC) on the charges of genocide in Darfur. As I see it, the ability of the US-Sino relations and to work together toward a common strategy for peace in South Sudan would be a real test case for the first time ever retrospect to the Containment Policy by the US and its European allied of both Russia and China during the peak of the East-West ideological confrontation or the Cold War to work together in Africa and beyond.

This could be called as true and realistic ideological shift on both the US- Sino relations on the African continent and beyond. Both China and the US were on the opposing sides of the pendulum on Darfur Crisis, it would seem in despite of the long suffering in South Sudan for the past sixteen months or so, the two superpowers share a heck of a common ground on South Sudan for the following raison d’être  that the US has invested politically in South Sudan and China since the birth of South Sudan and took with over 85% of the oilfield and Gas fields invested economically or has economic stakes in the country, Both the US and China have great interest in restoring peace and satiability to South, thus avoiding disrupting its black gold flows. I could not agree more with Casie’s Copeland of the International Crisis Group (ICG) South Sudan expert critical analysis that “The ability of the US and China to work together on the continent and beyond”: would become a “test case for their ability to work together on the continent and beyond” and that both Washington-Beijing have opted as “sort of walking in a circle.”

In despite of this new détente by the PRC and the USA on South Sudan, the US still has the greatest both economic and political advantage over China if it could do the right thing. We would be ready to help as Sudanese-Americans with the US and its Western allies interests at heart, not only in South Sudan, but throughout Black Africa. The PRC is going to become a big loser because it has abandoned it traditional policy of “non-interference” in its patron’s domestic affairs not only in South Sudan, but worldwide. It opted to supply arms to one side of the conflict at the expense of the side has got the black gold or the oil. What would China do at the end? Does it think and believe that it could pay us off with our black gold revenues? Of course, not, and we will take hard nose against the PRC this time around in South Sudan. They have goofed by supporting Salva Kiir vs. Dr. Riek Machar who owns and whose fighters controlled the black in the war.

The opposition against Salva Kiir’s would have no choice, but ask the PRC to call it quit in South Sudan and the US multinationals would come in full swing to replace China in the oilfields. We would make sure that this happens. However, there conditions that the US must and ought to admit to do first and foremost of all, viz.,: (1) to restore full diplomatic relations with Sudan; (2) to remove Sudan from the blacklist of the US State Department of countries known to be supporting international terrorism against the US interests worldwide. Sudan has been put on the list by default because there is no tangible and strong concrete evident to corroborate or to substantiate, per se, that Sudan has been supporting international terrorism against the Western powers converging and diverging interests in Africa and the world; (3) to remove sanctions and embargoes that did not work against Sudan; (4) to allow US business and financial and banking system to return to Sudan; (4) to resume trade and technical exchanges; (5) to scrape the policy of the regime change orchestrated retrospect to the 1996 up to present; (6) freedom of movement of Sudanese seeking to go immigrate to the US to take their siblings for those already in the US; (7) educational and cultural exchanges between students and academics in both the US and Sudan institutions of higher education or learning. These and many others should be put into implementation by both countries. We could surely help them achieve these objectives on consultancy basis as academic experts and statesmen and diplomats.  

Most importantly, we urge and appeal to the Western countries to re-cement stronger relations with Sudan like they have with South Sudan. We would not rest unless these demand of re-establishing full diplomatic relations, removable of Sudan from the US Department of State blacklist of countries supporting  international terrorism in which there is no shredded evident to corroborate or to authenticate that the African country has been supporting international terrorism against the Western interests in Sudan.

Finally, sanctions and embargoes are removed against Sudan and then follow by the nullification or suspension of the ICC charges against Sudanese President Field Marshal Omer Hassan Al-Bashir on the alleged Darfur genocide. These actions would improve the two-Sudan states relations with the Western countries and the USA in particular. As a Sudanese- American, We would recommend that the US hits two birds with a stone. We do not want China to have a foothold or a bridgehead in Africa because this could become dangerous, detrimental and threatening to the vital Western national security interests and greatly could threaten their foreign policy agendas in Africa and the Horn of Africa, including the two-Sudan states in particular. The UPDF fighting at behest of Salva Kiir has committed genocide siding with Salva Kiir regime have also become an accomplice to the genocide or democide in South Sudan because the Uganda Air Force jet fighters dropped sorties of internationally banned bombs, i.e., Napalm bombs, Cluster bombs, Phosphorous bombs and the Uranium depleted bullets similar to the 2012 Twelve-Day War and the Fifty-Day War in Gaza Strip with Israeli-Hamas-Hezbollah fighters in Southern Lebanon in 2006 and 2008 respectively, in South Sudan.

As regard to the minority communities that have been involved or entangled in the ferocious Dinka-Nuer crisis, they should only blames their leaders of any consequences rather than blaming the Dinka-Nuer leaders as the most affected communities in the crisis. The minority traditional Shilluk (Chollo) Kingdom in Upper Nile State should blame first and foremost the Reth of Shilluk that is the supreme leader both spiritual and temporal leader and no Shilluk above the Reth, Dr. Lam Akol, Pagan Amoumthe notorious terrorist and renegade General Johnson Oolong, General O’oyuk and any other Shilluk leaders that have been co-opted to join Salva Kiir’s genocidal war that targeted the Nuer nationality or ethnicity for extermination as a “final solution” in whole or in part. The minority Abilang Dinka in northern Upper Nile committed itself to fight the Nuer majority in the state in a crisis that they should not have been entangled for that. At the end of the war it would be to their disadvantage and detriment because the Nuer would not forgive them for the things they have done, which they ought not to have done. They massacred the Nuer families in Gerger, Renk and other towns in the areas in question, including the murder of the Chief of Police on the line of duty providing protection to the people in Renk’s town regardless of their ethnic or tribal backgrounds.

Conclusively, any outcome of this current politico-military crisis would be determined by the warring parties or by the two largest nationalities that have been at the loggerhead for the past sixteen (16) months or so and with no end in sight, unfortunately. The minority groups that have not been affected by the crisis should neither interfere nor take sides because that could become detrimental for their survival at the end of this crisis in the future and the present. Therefore, the minority communities activities and leaders  should keep off and should not be dragged or entangled in this crisis because they could become smashed, disseminated, annihilated or exterminated for no apparent no reasons in the midst of these two giants in South Sudan. As the African adage goes that “When two elephant fight the grass get hurts.” My advice to the minority groups in both Upper Nile and Bahr-el-Ghazel regions, including Equatoria to absolutely and resolutely keep off from being involved in the Dinka-Nuer fighting because they could get hurt and could not recover from it in the future and the present.

THE DISSOLUTION OFTHE SPLM STRUCTURES

On Friday, on 15 November 2013, the Dinka dictator announced the dissolution of the SPLM main organs, structures that include the highest executive organ, the Political Bureau (PB) and the National Liberation (NLC) leaving the office of the chairman secretariat division will function until he appoints a new secretariat. The purpose of this premature policy was to remove those that he perceived as threats to challenge in the schedule elections for 2015.The Dinka dictator was attempting to remove potential Presidential candidates within the SPLM as the ruling party and other non-SPLM challengers from other parties. Salva Kiir’s was using stalling tactics… the SPLM was expected to hold its convention in May, but he was silent about it because he fears that if the convention continues, then, they party may elect a different chairman instead of him. The Dinka dictator threats include former VP Dr. Riek Machar, Pagan Amoum, Rebecca Garang Nyandeng Garang de Mabior, Nhial Deng Nhial, Deng Alor Kuol and many others. To make the whole story short, Salva Kiir has self-ordained himself to become the vicar of the party and assumes that nobody else could replace him at the helm of the party. The tactics used by Salva Kiir have been to maintain absolute power, authority, dictatorship, patronage, oligarchy and control. In other words, he (Salva Kir) has become a non-benevolence dictator compared to Joseph Stalin,  Chairman Mao Zedong or Mao Tse-tung (1873-1976) of the PRC, General Franco of Spain, the Fascist Mussolini of Italy, Adolf Hitler of the Nazi Germany. From the viewpoint of the SPLM Party’s constitution as the ruling and the Constitution of the Republic of South Sudan (ROSS), it was illegal, unjustifiable for the Salva Kiir to have fired the VP, the NLC and the PB members. Salva Kiir broke the law and he should have been impeached by Parliament.

PEACE IN SOUTH SUDAN

Peace in South Sudan would come as a result of push from external pressure points that is now being exerted by some powers-mainly the TROIKA (the USA, the UK and Norway), the IGAD has failed in the Peace talks attempted to reconcile the SPLA-Juba and the SPLA-In-Opposition and the Western controlled UNSC has become the Third Ministry for executing their geopolitical foreign policy agendas and their geostrategic vital national security interests throughout the global interactions when  they perceived that such interests have been threatened.

The IGAD has failed in the process because its member states attempting negotiating the peace talks have vested military stakes and interests in the crisis less Ethiopia, Djibouti and Sudan. Since the inception of the war in mid-December 2013, South Sudan Revolutionary Forces (SSRF) comprised of many different components was already in the opposition against both Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar regime. We fought them and they fought or we fought each other. We wanted to overthrow them and they wanted to defeat us to maintain power and control. They both fought the SSRF and the ferocious White Army (WA). They called them as Khartoum’s Militias, which today by submission or omission the former VP Dr. Machar has self-proclaimed himself as the Commander-in-Chief of these forces without any prior consultations or meetings with the political and the military command leadership of the SSRF. We have been as nasty a force that we could be and reckoned with by Juba because we fought and annihilated, disseminated and defeated them in Higglich oil terminals and the oil rich Unity State, Bentiu, South Sudan. We gave them bloody noses or hell and we would continue to do so in the future and the present until our demands have been met and the peace process would be reconvened in order to become comprehensive and inclusive.

We would not accept such exclusionism in the peace process similar to what transferred in the bilateral Naivasha peace negotiations in which Professor John Young writes that “The international community focused its peace-making efforts on the north-south dimensions of the multifaceted conflict and reduced the protagonists and peace process to only two parties, namely, the NCP as the ruling party in Sudan and the SPLM/A.” Professor John Young further illuminated that “The various protocols of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement only recognized these two parties; in despite of the rhetoric by the international community about broadening peace-building--but not peacemaking--opposition parties in the north and the south were entirely excluded from the process. Professor John Young concludes that if the international community subscribed to the logic of the NCP/SPLM that only parties with the capacity to wage war deserved a place at the negotiating table[1]

The logic utilized for this exclusionism of other factions was pretty simple and it went like as professor John Young writes it. The various protocols of the bilateral Naiviasha Peace Agreement technically known as the Comprehensive peace Agreement of 2005 only recognized the aforesaid two parties; despite the rhetoric by the international community about broadening peace-building- but not peace-making- opposition parties in the north and south were entirely excluded from the process. Indeed the international subscribed to the logic of the NCP and SPLM that only parties with capacity to wage war deserved a place at the negotiating table. This plan was designed by Pagan Amoum that has adorned himself as the head of the so-called former Detainees who have been the main source of the crisis because they were anti-Riek Machar from the very beginning in the SPLM Political Bureau and even denied him the right to run for the Office of the President of the Republic and do have forces backing them on the ground inside South Sudan. 

Even the bilateral Naivasha peace process, which led to the signing of the CPA, was a scaled-down affair that precluded from the outset participation by others involved in the conflict elsewhere in the country as well as civil society and political parties from both the north and south. Most importantly, it denied the South Sudan Defense Forces (SSDF) an armed Movement that brokered the 1997 Khartoum Peace Agreement (KPA) that became the mother of all peace agreements in Sudan with comparable size or even greater than the SPLA and as a result it was widely believe that the signing of the CPA would set the stage for South-South war. This was realistic analysis was correct because if the late John Garang had landed at Khartoum International Airport en route from Uganda, the South-South war could have begun at that stage in Khartoum and then spread throughout into Southern Sudan.  Let’s assume hypothetically that if the war occurred, the CPA would have been in shambles and left in ruins for good by such an incident, unfortunately.

The IGAD has failed the peace process to become comprehensive and inclusiveness because it wanted to apply the old logic of the bilateral Naivasha Peace Agreement of 2005 technically called the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 that was a real blocker rather an inclusive because it excluded in the process many actors. It focus was the late John Garang and his cronies who have tossed over the table against Salva Kiir or tacitly the so-called Garang Boys and who called themselves the ex-Detainees otherwise known as the Group 10 (G-10) with no army on the ground. They neither belong to Salva Kiir’s Juba SPLA nor to Dr. Riek Machar’s so-called SPLA- in- Opposition (SPLA-I-OP). Who is really the G-10? With no army on the ground, what kind of peace could talk about? We could recall that it was Pagan Amoum who coined the term during the Naivaisha Peace negotiations and agreement to exclude other Armed Groups that “only parties with capacity to wage war deserved a place at the negotiating table”. This time around, we think that the so-called G-10 led by Pagan Amoum the former arrogant little like-mind, stupid Red Communist SPLM/A Secretary-General, We think now that they have become a bunch of yo-yos troublemakers with no specific peace and politico-military agenda. They were also responsible for the rift between Salva and Dr. Machar because they wanted power, money and control by any means necessary. Who would want to associate with these bad apples or characters? We would like to make it loud and clear that if Dr. Machar’s unilaterally welcomed to SPLA-I-Op. there could be resentment and exodus that could tilt the status quo ante in disfavor of Dr. Machar. We would like Dr. Machar’s to know in advance that any unilateral decision-makings that he makes without the collective inclusion of other opinions in the process, he (Dr. Machar) could find himself in a tough pigeon hole like Saddam Hussein epic with the US in Iraq.

The main political and military opposition groups have been absolutely and resolutely have been excluded from the Addis-Ababa peace talks ever since such talks started on the crisis in South Sudan. Dr. Machar’s loves power, money, control and his’, therefore, no different, in my opinion from Salva Kiir because he often bulldozed himself, self-proclaimed and self-superimposed himself as the Chairman and the Commander-in-Chief of the non-SPLA fighters, which already existed, with chain of command and its political leadership that Dr. Machar’s, Taban Deng Gai (alas Mohamed Hassan) plus other closed and inexperienced relatives and in-laws that they wanted to sideline the best and the brightest or la crème de la crème in the process. Instead, Dr. Machar’s to come on in to join the original opposition on the things that we foresaw and to share political power in the leadership. South Sudan, for instance, was already a pre-born and a pre-failed state, that corruption was at the highest peak from the top to the bottom, that there was extremely entrenched ethnocentrism (tribalism), that unless the necessary corrections were undertaken before it was too late, South Sudan could plunge into a bloody civil war that could lead  to national disintegration and Africa’ youngest state could become truly a failed state in Africa like Somalia on the Horn of Africa and that it remains politically instable, thus, moving from being stateless to statelessness.

The author of this article, I was bitterly rebuked by both Salva Kiir, Dr. Riek Machar and others clienteles who have clearly and undeniably came out to declare me as a “crazy and arrogant Sudanese-American Professor.” Of course, they do have any god damn record to show that I am crazy, but his ultimate goal was to blemish me politically and my good name sake as a renowned intellectual seen by the Nuer as the most potential replacement of Dr. Machar in the future and the present. We should make it clear to the Nuer Community (NC) and the entire world that during the eight (8) of Dr. Machar’s tenure as the VP in Juba, he did everything possible to blemish my name with Salva who was a good friend from the very beginning, but prematurely convinced by Dr. Machar and General Thomas Douth Guet and other useless Nuer Yieoni (Nuer for the money) that if I were to come in to join the government I would certainly stage coup d’état against Salva Kiir through the USCIA and the M-6 because of my American connections. This was perceived as big threat by Salva Kiir even though the US and the UK did not have such fabricated plans to stage a coup d’état against Salva Kiir that they have considered to become a good ally in Juba. 

Looking at it now and then, the fact that I remained out of the GOSS was a blessing in disguise because I am pretty cleansed and pretty cleansed indeed and nobody could claim that Professor/Ambassador David de Chand, the former Senior National Expert in the Presidency of the Republic of Sudan prior to the split has been corrupt or embezzled monies compared to others, including the President and the former VP Dr. Machar who have embezzled a hell of a lot of money in their private banks accounts, purchased big mansions in Khartoum and abroad for what they did deserve such as, the stolen public purse. Even though I have qualified my position or statement of truth as a political scientist/political economist, historian and in my capacity as an expert international relations and international law, a former diplomat, conflict negotiations and conflict resolution, international humanitarian law and human rights laws and an expert in public administration; management; public policy decision-making; comparative government; federalism, management and the author of three book manuscripts on Sudan South Sudan relations retrospect to the split in 2011, the ICC and African leaders and the ongoing civil war in South Sudan. Succinctly, South Sudan has become a failed state that remains politically instable and moving from the stateless to statelessness like Somalia on the Horn of Africa.

Realistically, I have qualified my statements by saying that South Sudan has been a pre-born and a pre-failed state not because of lack of highly qualified calibers, manpower and technocrats, but because these men and women with such capabilities as a league of its own has been deliberated and willfully sidelined or excluded in the process of establishing new democratic institutions for the Africa’s youngest state in South Sudan.  In addition, I was bitterly rebuked and I could not be pleased that the issues that I have painstakingly researched and wrote about them have become political realities. I have specifically argued that unless the SPLM leadership as the ruling party undertook the necessary political reforms and corrections on the probed concepts that South Sudan was a pre-born and a pre-failed, corruption and deeply entrenched ethnocentrism (tribalism) I have proven them all wrong and I could now feel at ease, feel great feel terrific and could laugh at them because they have been crazy and cranky. They have killed hundreds of thousands of people and internally displaced (IDPs) millions of people in so short a period of time. Many people have lost lives compared to those that have died during the years, that they have created pain, suffering, mental anguish and hunger for their people in one of the most fertile lands in Africa and the world and potentially rich in strategic critical minerals, oilfields and Gas fields, that they have failed and disintegrated the state on ethnocentric lines (tribal lines); that it would become impossible South Sudan as a state would not be reunited ever in the future and the present. History would not absolve both Dr. Machar and Salva Kiir, but would absolve me because I have caused no pain, suffering and mental anguish or death to anyone or anybody in South Sudan.     

In my capacity as a former diplomat, academic, leader of South Sudan Democratic Front Party or South Sudan Democratic Party (SSDFP), and its military component--South Sudan National Revolutionary Army (SSNRA), we have not participated in Juba’s government one of the most highly corrupt system and the most backward regime, unfortunately. I have earned my entire wings from the “Old Sudan”. Since I have been the political leader of the SSRF led by 1Lt. General Gordon Kong Chol, Lt.-General James Gai Yoach, Major David Yaw Yaw, and Major General Oolony that turned to become a terrorist and Salva Kiir’s renegade misleading the Shilluk (Chollo) minority to hell to become enemy against the predominantly Nuer majority in Upper Nile State. I hold the rank of Lt-General in the SSRF and sometimes my guys called me “Herr Marshal”. We bitterly fought the SPLA incursion into our bases with combined SPLA, JEM, SRF, SPLA-N deliberately and willfully attacked our positions because they called us as Khartoum “militias” in which we were not, never been and would never be forever. We were (still is) a guerilla movement that has been anti-Juba’s corruption, ethnocentrism (tribalism), spillover of bad governance, democratization; the rule of law and human rights protection.

Let’s assume hypothetically that we have been truly Khartoum militias then and now, we would have kicked out the SPLM as the ruling party a long time ago. Even though it has brought in the UPDF and its affiliated mercenaries from Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Kenya Somalia and Zimbabwe, including its witchcrafts from Nigeria and Rwanda fighting the rebels, we gave them hell of a bloody fight that the UPDF would never ever forget the ferocious fighting Nuers in South Sudan. We could have already overran Juba, but the self-proclaimed rebel leader Dr. Machar really mess up the guys fighting this war because he has got an agenda to be reunited with Salva  Kiir for the SPLM to rise up again as the ruling party to continue ruling South Sudan. This has become now too late and a bride too far to cross. We have been opposed to the management Africa’s youngest state, corruption, extreme ethnocentrism, embezzlement, and looting of the public purse or coffer by the SPLM officials, including the President and the former Vice President up to the common or the little man on the street in Juba.

We have been the staunchest architects and advocates of political and military elites that pushed for independence that Dr. Machar left the entire South Sudan Independence Movement/Army (SSIM/SSIA) that brokered the 1997 KPA or the 1997 Sudan Peace Agreement(SPA) was the first peace agreement in the country that became the mother of all peace processes in the country), which was twisted around with heck of alterations, insertions, deletions, new agendas, new changes inserted by the American lobbyists, Roger P. Winter known as the Pentagon man in South Sudan after Rwanda, John Prendergast, Ted Diane the Ethiopian émigré and turned CIA Agent on Africa, Ethiopia and Southern Sudan, Dr. Susan Rice, the former US Ambassador (African-American Iron lady) to the UN and now head of the National Security Council (NSC) in the White House on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, DC.

Notwithstanding, Dr. Machar compared to Dr. Lam Akol left his group” headless” because compared to Dr. Lam Akol that has been impatience, an opportunist, a vulture and a hyena when he suddenly and not surprisingly signed the so-called Nairobi Declaration with the late John Garang de Mabior on 7 January 2002. Dr. Machar left his people “headless” and this has been the predicament that attributed to confusion and disillusionment in Dr. Machar’s leadership style, which up to this time confused and weakened many capable and highly qualified calibers to follow Dr. Machar’s leadership because of lack of confident in what he does and to become the loser at the end of the day. Of course, he knows that he has been obsolete within the Nuer Community likes Salva Kiir has been in the heterogeneous Dinka Community.

In conclusion, neither Dr. Machar’s nor Salva Kiir’s could be able to lead, reunite and to rebuild trust amongst South Sudanese in the future and the present. We suggest or recommend, therefore, that they leave peacefully the political scene and to let them go on to venture in other careers like any other politicians have done so worldwide. They should those who have followed them for so long a chance to lead. We do reckon that in the Nuer Community that traditionally liberal, democratic, faith-based political culture and especially amongst the Nuer intellectuals and generals, Dr. Machar has done and would not rise again at the end of this crisis and so too Salva Kiir as his counterpart. For the two men, in as far as I am concerned, enough is enough, because they killed too many people, accumulated a lot of money and should just call it quit and to move on with career change ventures in order for others to have a chance to rebuild or to reconstruct and to contribute effectively in the construction of the pillars of the bridge in the national building process. This is the bottom line.

THE ROOT CAUSES OF THE CRISIS

The root causes of the ongoing crisis in South Sudan Africa’s youngest failed state could be attributed to the shocking and baseless, but not surprising premature announcement made in Juba by Dinka dictator Salva Kiir on 15 December 2013 to the world that there a failed coup d’état attempt against him (Salva Kiir) in which the former VP was implicated as the ring leader. Based on the said, there was no shredded evident to corroborate or to substantiate beyond a reasonable doubt, that there was really a failed coup d’état attempt against Salva Kiir. It was a hoax and pretext to assassinate the entire SPLM Political Bureau, including the former VP. I was the first amongst equals that announced and articulated to the world media that there was no coup d’état attempt against the Dinka dictator, a child, a woman killer and the minister of death. My position and articulation was pick up by the international community and the US championed the birth of South Sudan accepted it in principle and in a whole that there was no coup d’état attempt against Salva Kiir staged by the former VP Dr. Riek Machar.

The unanimous acceptance of no coup d’état attempt cleared the airwaves and exonerated the former VP Dr. Riek Machar of any wrong doing, guilt, doubts over the aforesaid incident. Unless Salva Kiir could produce tangible, viable and vibrant concrete and stronger evident to substantiate the allegation of a failed coup d’état attempt by the former VP Dr. Riek Machar, the Dinka dictator does not stand any iota chance on whatsoever evident that he already presented to the world and South Sudan state remained elusive and illegitimate that the international community, the international tribunal and the Constitution of South Sudan would accept it as legit. Therefore, if what Salva Kiir claimed to be evident, then, there was sufficient evident to warrant the former VP to be termed as the ring leader for the so-called coup d’état attempt against Salva Kiir by any military tribunal or any courts of law.

Because Salva Kiir has been asphyxiated by his anti-Nuer nationality or ethnicity hateful sentiments, jealousy the already registered Nuerophobia and other phobic phobia amongst the Dinka (Jieng) people toward the Naadth or Nath (people of the people), the Nuer nation and its resilient people and as potentially the richest in natural resources, i.e., oil and gas, strategic critical mineral and fertile agricultural lands and they [Dinka] virtually have got nothing besides the cattle that the Nuer also have. The Dinka must admit that are poor, lazy, arrogant and stupid, dictators and undemocratic. We have been to the Heartland of the Dinka; they have good fertile lands like their Nuer counterparts. However, because the Dinka men are lazy and do not cultivate like their Nuer counterparts, it’s one of the raison d’être that they have been hunger all year round and solely the victims of “Dependency Syndrome” from the UNWFP food dropping that no Nuer people would accept. Even during the sixteen months war perpetrated by the Dinka jackasses’ power elite, the Nuer people have cultivated more than enough Bel or Dura (sorghum) to fight the war against Juba and the UPDF that they shall and will defeat them.

We have known that they [Dinka] have grown big bellies with Nuer oil money that they [Dinka] do not deserve. They would sooner rather than regret the things that they have done, which they ought not to have done. We shall and will overcome what happened to the Nuer nation and people, but for the Dinka it would forever remain a register crime that they would not escape it, but they would transmit it from generation to the generation as long as humankind lives on the planet-Earth. We would pursue them no matter where they go, to live and to work worldwide. We are determined to do justice like the Israelis’ Mosad and the Israelis’ Shin bin have done against the Nazis that genocide the Jews during the Second World War (WW II) (1939-1945) and escaped to other parts of world. We have that capability to accomplish this mission and my Dinka cousins should know and underscore this fact, political and historical reality. It would happen sooner rather than later.

In the history of humankind, there have been no problems without probable causes of crises, conflicts, quagmires and wars did not occur spontaneously without probable sociopolitical, socioeconomic, negative perception before between country A and country B. These have been logical, analytical, methodical, epistemological and philosophical dynamics and uniqueness of the root causes of the crises in the international geopolitical and geostrategic system. Mankind as a rational animal and the hardest to rule, to administer, to control, and to manage and to r on the planet-Earth, have the ability and the capacity at times to create to the most dangerous sophisticated negative perceptions as a rational animal with fluctuating minds and thoughts that have been often the essence of rational scientific minds and rational reasoning and reasonableness either positive or negative rational and negative thinking and neo-thinking to create the most gruesome and horrendous crises that could make life to become much more miserable than it has already been miserable to become pretty miserable, pretty nasty as it can be and the most difficult to bear, unfortunately.

Nevertheless, in despite of mankind’s ability and capacity to create problems, it also have the capacity, the ability, the willingness and the readiness to make peace, reconciliation, to forgive, but not to forget the past. So history of humanity could be summed succinctly that we if we yearn for peace must also be prepared for war and if we yearn for war, we must also be prepared for peace and vice versa. From the time of immemorial, mankind created politics or states or the nation-states to continue doing so, it created within the existing states or nation-states inherent social problems and crimes that could become resolvable, irresolvable and the rest could become the tumultuously tedious and compound complex problems that would often required, logical and analytical reasoning and reasonableness, Dialogues par cum pari (equal) to listen, to learn, to grow, and to change in the process of achieving peaceful and political conflict resolution. This is the real current crisis in South Sudan that unless we altogether seek peace for the sake of peace in the region , it could escalate like wildfires in the bushes and it could become the most episode or epic to quench in the future and present. The Dinka Community should know by now that what they have done, which they ought not to have done would be detrimental to their co-existence with the Nuer people in south Sudan. They should critically think about after the fact or the post-mortem of them what they have done to the Nuer people who would overcome this incident.

The current ongoing crisis in Africa’s youngest failed state in South Sudan has become a compound complex crisis because of regional and international actors’ involvement that should not be neither underestimated nor ignored because if the regional powers, could not find a substantive and logical solution, reasonable peace and political conflict resolution, it could create real geopolitical and geostrategic havocs not only for the international actors who are desperately pushing their economic and their vital strategic national security interests, regional political upheavals throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond. South Sudan has already failed; disunited and disintegrated such that it could become impossible to retrieve this state of affair in the foreseeable future. The crisis rather than the so-called coup d’état attempt against Salva Kiir staged by the former VP Dr. Machar was a hoax and has put South Sudan back to square one- that’s to say, to its previously status of being a pre-born and a pre-failed state as result of its democratic institutions were not well preconceived, envisaged, structured and not properly established, mismanaged and mal-administered.

Specifically, the lack or the absence thereof of established democratic and federal institutions, strategized prioritized socioeconomic planning and infrastructure in despite of South Sudan’s enormous resources that the current regime leadership and the ruling party failed to appropriately manage, to administer and to equitably distribute or wealth sharing amongst its culturally diverse nationalities and ethnicities because of rampant corruption, embezzlement, self-aggrandizement, patronage, nepotism, favoritism and socio-ethos in the building of the pillars of the bridge, the absence of sustainable governance, democratization; the rule of law, human rights protection, transparency and accountability, have been disproportionately advantageous to the welfare of the Africa’s youngest state or polity in South Sudan.

Hitherto, the absence of comprehensive and inclusions of all the culturally diverse population in the process in the formation of national government to give each and every one of them a sense of belonging and patriotism as full citizens in Africa’s youngest state in South Sudan has been another great setback. Thus, the visionaries that foresaw, researched and wrote about the ongoing events have been correct in what they foretold would happen if necessary corrections and the internal contradictions were not ascertained and authentically implemented for that.

WHO ARE RWESPONSIBLE FOR THE CRISIS IN SOUTH SUDAN

Joana Adams, RSS, writes on 24 December 2013 that the former US Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, Princeton Lyman, has put off his diplomatic hat and squarely blamed Salva Kiir for the violence engulfing the country in a BBC interview. We could not agree more with Joana Adam’s analysis, reasoning and reasonableness. The people of South Sudan have witnessed the unfolding events in the Africa’s youngest country. South Sudan is a democratic Republic and not monarchy or hereditary monarchy; it is a constitutional right of every citizen to contest for the highest office of the President in the land. It absolutely and resolutely shocking that the president who elected by the people democratic would become enraged about being politically challenged. It was cleared that the president went on rampage by: (1) unconstitutionally sacked the VP in August 2013; (2) unconstitutionally suspending the Secretary-General of the SPLM party; (3) Blocked every avenue for Dialogue within the SPLM as the ruling party by refusing to convene the SPLM Political Bureau (PB) meeting to internally discuss SPLM and to set agenda for Liberation Council meeting; (4) prematurely issued an order to dissolve SPLM structures, i.e., politburo, National Liberation Council (NLC) forcing the press conference on the 6 December 2013 by those opposed to him and affected by the monumental dissolution;(5) swiftly convened a surprise meeting of the NLC to divert attention from and obstruct a public rally by the opposition forces within the SPLM party: Dr. Riek Machar and company suspended the public rally in response to call from  religious leaders in anticipated to attend the NLC meeting, but were further humiliated by an ignorant and arrogant President Kiir which result in their walk-out; (6) The Dinka dictator Salva Kiir gave orders that the Nuer ethnicity Presidential guards be disarmed;(7) Salva Kiir gave instruction to his militias to indiscriminately attack and kill Nuer soldiers, civil servants, unarmed and helpless civilians’ population or citizens in Juba that shall be known hereinafter as the 2013 Juba Genocide.

Certainly, with this brief explanation, it was clear that Salva Kiir was to blamed for the violence in the country. Specifically, Salva Kiir must and ought to be investigated on the charges of inciting and authorizing genocide, ethnic cleansing, massacres, killings and gross systematic human rights violations throughout South Sudan. Based on the preceded explications it was beyond a reasonable doubt, that the Dinka dictator has proven to be unfit to lead Africa’s youngest state in South Sudan.

First and foremost of all, the full responsibility of the crisis in South Sudan be squarely blamed on Salva Kiir, General Paul Malong Awan, James Tellar Deng, the Presidential Advisor, recently posted to Moscow as South Sudan Ambassador, the Twic Dinka Special Militias under the command of Salva Kiir and Paul Malong Awan, SPLA Security and his loyal cronies, sycophants and protégés. We must call a spade a spade or to put it in Black and White, the SPLA as if a party’s forces comprised of all ethnicities or nationalities in South Sudan did not shoot anyone to kill any innocent unarmed and helpless people in Juba. However, when the SPLA split into two one faction became pro-Salva Kiir’s and another faction became pro-Dr. Riek Machar’s, it could be assumed possibly that it was them that each group decided to undertake revenge killings. For many young Dinka who have died in this crisis, the survivors at the end would ask why they have to die, why they would have to hate the Nuer so much, what have the Nuer done them?    Many of their loved ones do not know that their kids, husbands and brothers have been all killed in fighting the Nuer troopers in Greater Upper Nile region and the war is moving rapidly, but slowly, steadily and surely into the Heartland of the Dinkaland in Warrap State and Aweil in Northern Bahr-el-Ghazel State.

These two states have the source of the crisis and they must and ought to be taught great and un-forgetful lessons. They should not blame the Nuer fighters for what may come, but Salva Kiir and Paul Malong Awan have been identified as the two men responsible for the crisis, the war and the most wanted criminals dead or alive. As for all those that participated in the Genocide like Major Kirbino Kuanyin Bol the son of the late notorious General Kiribino Kuanyin Bol responsible for the death of more than 300 unarmed and helpless Nuer people, including many others that have been documented, they would meet their fate through the administration or the adjudication of social justice. We would make sure that justice must and ought to be done and the ICC, the UNSC, the AU and the weak IGAD should become mindful that the crime of  genocide and other rights violations have been committed against the Nuer nationality or ethnicity in the 2013 Juba Genocide. Failure on the above mentioned organizations not to act swiftly, could cause the Nuer to take matters into their hands in dealing with the Dinka accordingly and that could become fatal compared only to the Chaka Zulu wars in Southern Africa in the 1900s and the Arab-Israeli war that has no end in sight in the Middle East. We would have no forgiveness for all those that have committed this crime and we would haunt them down no matter where found-to destroy the perpetrators [Dinka] of the crime of genocide and other rights violations.

As soldiers and professionals with a code of ethnic based on positive organized dictatorship, a chain of command and a mission to protect the national interests and its civilians’ population when call upon to do so, they have opted to remain out of politics by obeying orders. The former Chief of the General Staff, Gathoth Mai, a well educated, balanced and a veteran of the war of liberation, firstly, did a pretty good job as an Officer and a Gentleman. Nonetheless, he failed to provide protection to the unarmed and helpless civilians’ population with specifically targeted the Nuer ethnicity per orders of the President to this great nationality amongst the sixty-four (64)  different nationalities or ethnicities for extermination as a “final solution” in whole or in part. General Mai should have realized that the state became lawless, chaotic and unarmed and helpless civilians’ population were being genocide, massacres, killings by the President Kiir’s Twic Dinka Militias comprises of Agetweng, Bany Adut, Malwal Anyuo and Malwal Anyier totaling to 3-6,000 man strong.

As the Chief of the General Staff, this where he should have shown leadership by staging a coup against the elected President of the Republic went berserk after having got so many shots of Whisky, drunk and broke the law and the Constitution of the Africa’s youngest stat. He could not have been blamed had he undertook this actions or the leadership of protecting the unarmed and helpless civilians because the whole thing would have come foreclosure swiftly and fairly many months ago. The world would have supported him, including the IGAD in politico-military paralysis within the state and then returns over the power to the civilians once clam was achieved in the country. This could have been similar to what occurred in Burkina Faso in the last few months or so when Burkina Faso Armed Forces [BFAF] took over power and then returned it over to the civilian rule.

The militias were not part of the Ministry of Defense (MOD), but exclusively under the command of President Salva Kiir and the Chief of the General Staff Paul Malong Awan. The Militias instructed to specifically deal with the Nuer Question by targeting the Nuer nationality for extermination as a “final solution” in whole or in part. Salva Kiir has vowed to completely wipe out the Nuer as a race to become statistics on the planet-Earth once and for all on the face of this planet-Earth and South Sudan in particular. How could he accomplish this plan? The Nazis attempted it against the Jews during the Second World War in Europe and they failed, Saddam Hussein did it by gassing the Kurds, he failed; the Hutus’ did it against the Tutsi in the 1994 Rwanda, they too had failed. How could the Dinka dictator to a whole nation that found in three (3) countries, viz., South Sudan as the majority nationality according to the 2010 Fifth Population Census in Sudan prior to the split, the 500 Kilometers Southwest Nuer-Ethiopia- South Sudan border and along 2,800 to 3,000 Kilometers along the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan border. Realistically, it could have been an impossible mission for the Dinka dictator to accomplish. Without the shadow of a doubt, at least one Nuer nationality would have left and then to continue the fight against the Dinka dictator until he would be defeated. 

The failure of the top braze SPLA Generals to stage a coup d’état against the President was  incompatible with the Transitional Constitution of the Republic of South Sudan because the President had acted contrary to the Constitution and bylaws of the Republic as a democratically elected President by the same innocent unarmed and helpless people that he genocide in cold blood and that they[the military]  establishment failed to stage a coup d’état against the President that went berserk by ordering the killings, massacres and genocide of unarmed and helpless people in violation of Article 6 of the  UN Convention on the Punishment and Prevention of the Crime of Genocide (CPPCG), including the ICC rights law.

Major-General Mach Paul that and Lt. General Gai Yoach fought and defeated disastrously in Bentiu and Higglich oil terminals and Lt.-General Majak de’Aggoot, former Deputy Minister of Defense and others though gave straightforward statements to the AU Investigators on the ensuing crisis, they were, nonetheless, not cleansed either because they were part and parcel of the problem rather part and parcel of the solution. We do know how wicked and arrogant these two Dinka Bor generals have been anti-Nuer nationality and as a race in South Sudan. They have not been out of the woods yet because they had a lot to be accounted for at the end of the day. They armed the Dinka Bor to kill the Nuer civilians’ population when we convinced them through a painstaking hard work until they agreed to be disarmed through the United Nations Demobilization, Disarmament and Rehabilitation (UNDDR) Programs in South Sudan. Realizing all of the events, which have transferred in the post-UNDDR Program, we have fully and heavily re-armed the Nuers than ever before. They would never again to accept any of the so-called UNDDR Programs. In fact, we would train and re-arm more the Nuer nation and its resilient people for self-protection of their communities and property from any further Dinka, the Murle and the SPLA maunders incursions into the Nuerland in the future and the present. Absolutely and resolutely, no Nuer leaders never again would encourage and to accept any further disarmament of the Nuer in South Sudan. It would become a non-negotiable item, a big red line and a no-go item. This is the bottom line. We have done it once and it did not work as we have intended it to be so. The Nuer folks would forever remain well and heavily armed and properly militarily trained for self-protection of the Nuer Community against all foes or enemies.

Last, but not least, as for the Nuer generals and politicians bought by Salva Kiir under his “Nine Points” secret agenda extracted from the so-called 39 Laws, which are no longer secrets because they have been accessed to and disseminated widely, any bought off generals or politicians who make any attempt to disarm the Nuers, could be in big trouble or in a hot soup. It has to be made clear herein and now that we have two books- one black and the other white. Surely, nobody knows who are in the Black Book or who are in the White Book. It surely remains a myth to be de-mythologized. Therefore, anyone paid off with big cash to betray the Nuer Community, should realize he/ she might have been already placed in the Black Book.

Those Nuers for the money (Nuer Yeiouni) or in Dinka language tacitly termed as “Nuer Wew,” they have already been placed in the Black Book and any encroachment of these idiots into the Nuerland, they could meet their fates from any Nuer persons bystanders because they have been traitors, collaborators, betrayers as well as sales out of the Nuer people, culture and ethics. They shall be condemned, ostracized or ex-communicated in absentia. Folks like Dr. Riek Kok, Dr. Barnaba Marial, Tut Gatluak (Tut Kaw), the sons of Montuiel and the Foolish and under educated James Kok Ruai,  lady Nyadak Paul, General Thomas Douth Guet and John Luke Jock, for instance, the Nuer nation would have to fight their “Kempf” or their war on them because of the things that they have done, which they ought not to have done against the Nuer Community for the sake of the money they have been paid off by Salva Kiir as the partial fulfillment of the so-called 39 Laws that would not work. Can a Dinka really draft 39 Laws against the Nuer or is it not the Nuer to draft 39 laws or more against the Dinka? I had already accessed these retrospect to 2004 Yei River Conference and the speeches made by John Garang Salva and Wani Igga and had written long analysis that would I have to revisit now for further revision because of the changes that have occurred during the years up to the present. The availability of the Black and the White books should make everyone to become cautious in what they say, what they say, how they say it, why they say it; when they say it; and where they say it…etc. It would become the secret code of ethics to make sure that every Nuer must and ought to know what they say and do in the community. We shall have no forgiveness this time around until learn how to conduct ourselves properly like good men and women in the Nuer Community.

From happened in the 2013 Genocide, not even a single soul stood with us in this tragedy in south Sudan. What have we learned, what have the Nuer traditionally known to be democratic, responsible, leaders, Good Samaritans and died for the sake other weaker Southerners when they being abuse by outsiders in our presence. This is lesson that we have learned the hard way. American lobbyists such as, Roger Winter, John Prendergast, Ted Diane and Dr. Susan Rice and others as well have been responsible for what happened to the Nuer Community in 2013. It has been their agenda for many years retrospect to split in 1991 of the once invincible Marxist-Leninist SPLM/A that we built with our sweats and blood to liberate South Sudan. They should know that the Nuer nation and its resilient people shall and will overcome this incident like others who have experienced genocide before us in the world. We shall overcome and we shall over… and Kuotth Naadth or Nath diede e long… (The Nuer God through Nyundeng is great or the God of the people of the people id great, and we shall overcome). As for Dinka cousins, the Nuer nation and its gallant people would promise them long suffering in South Sudan. They should know this fact because they have started it and we would end it for them. If anyone transgresses against a Nuer, he would transgress against that person twice as hard as the transgressor has done him. There would be no forgiveness of the perpetrators of the crime of genocide.

As the author of this work, we would call for peace through strength, but never in weakness, the immediate establishment of an International Tribunal in South Sudan similar to Rwanda Tribunal in Arusha, Tanzania, in South Sudan, establishment of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) in South Sudan similar to the post-apartheid TRC in South Africa and Dialogue par cum pari (equal) (Ruaini ti paarke) and reconciliations through the formation of an international Tribunal in South Sudan similar the Rwanda Tribunal in Arusha, Tanzania, the formation the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in South Sudan similar to the South African Truth and reconciliation at the end of apartheid such that everyone that has committed a crime against an unarmed and helpless persons should confess what they have done, which they ought not to have done against their fellow countrymen and counterwomen. For those who have lost their loved ones that have been murdered in cold blood, they should learn to forgive, but not to forget, because those who have committed such acts did not know what they were doing. We should not simplify ourselves to act like them, but we should be above and beyond them and become humble and Christ-like people. We do reckon that these statements are hardest and difficult to comprehend and to swallow them, to chew them and to digest them. They have started this show and we would finish it for them when, where, how, what and why or through the “Maslow laws.”

These paid off Nuer yeiouni, would have no place on the table in the Nuer Community. They have been already classified as the outcasts, the outlaws, and collaborators, betrayers of their community as well as criminals of the third kind. They should know that in accordance with the Nuer culture, law and customs, they shall and will transmit this guilt from their children to their children’s children. They have been cursed by the Great Nuer God forever. Their money would finish one way or the other, but the guilt that they have committed against the Nuer Community and it great people would continue haunting them for posterity and forever lasting. Kuoth Nhial a thin, ka Kuoth Nhial a thin! (God is Great and God is Great), Halleluiah! So let everyone, including the author looks out and watches carefully what comes out of their tongues as the “numero uno” (public enemy No, 1) against mankind in accordance with the Biblical interpretations. We shall not forgive the perpetrators of the Genocide until the mission as been accomplished. This is the bottom line.

THE ROLES OF CHINA-US PEACE PROCESS

The current worsening crisis in South Sudan have multifaceted problems with emphasis on intensifying hunger for more than a year, according to the UNM more South Sudanese have sought refuge and shelters and protection its peacekeeping outposts. Stephanie Dujarric, a spokesman for the United Nations reported in New York that more than 4,500 South Sudanese had recently entered UNMISS Compound in Upper Nile, bringing the total number who have sought sanctuary at the base to 26,000 shelter and protection at the base and pushing the total number in the entire country who are living in the UNMISS Compounds or facilities to 115,000. More than one 1.5-2.5million have become internally displaced persons (IDPs) inside South Sudan and more than 500,000 to a million fled to the neighboring African countries of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Sudan.  

The looming crisis started with the alleged coup d’état attempt against Salva Kiir by Dr. Riek Machar as it ring leader and the political feuding between factions loyal to Salva Kiir and others who swear allegiance to Dr. Machar have been the root causes of the crisis. Nevertheless, the crisis is as old as the US midwifed the birth of South Sudan and could be traced to the 1984 when the late General Abdullah Chol Deng of the Anya-Anya (A-2) from Fangak, Central Nuer, murdered many Dinka cadres from Bahr-el-Ghazel en route to Itang, Bilphan and Bonga Military Camps (BMCs) in revenged killings and massacres in revenge of the death of the late charismatic Colonel Samuel Gai Tut swiftly murdered by the late John Garang de Mabior abated by the Dirge Marxist-Leninist (1971-1991) in Ethiopia and the Split in the once invincible Marxist-Leninist SPLM/A as terrorist outfit rather a national liberation movement compared to Algeria, led by Ahmed Benbella, Libya led by Sheikh Ahmed Mukhtar, the ANC led for twenty-seven (27) years in Jail or behind bars on Robin Island offshore South Africa by the late President Nelson Mandela, Mozambique Liberation Movement led by Zamora Michel, Southwest African People Organization (SWAPO) led by Sam Njuma, the Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) led by Dr. Agustino Neto and the Union for the Total Liberation of Angola (UNITA) led by the late Johannes Samvibi, including other success test cases of African national liberation movements.

To qualify and to quantify my statement that the SPLMA has been (and still is) a terrorist organization have been because it murdered in cold blood it best and the brightest or la crème del a crème cadres because the late John Garang adorned himself as the vicar of the SPLMA and often carried it in his brief case and managed it like his own personal plantation whilst it claims that its was liberating the people of Southern Sudan from yoke and bastion of the Arabizrd Muslim North neo-imperialism and neo-colonialism. Realistically, the late John Garang had a designed to entrench the Dinka supremacy, dynasty and chastiystanism and apartheid in South Sudan. The Nuer ferocious fighters resisted and killed it for good before it could bloom at the horizon in South Sudan. This has been the same legacy that Salva Kiir wanted to install it and the Nuers resisted and killed it for the second time for good. The present of Ugandans in South Sudan soil would not allow the Dinkanization and Dinkaism Programs to takeoff in any shape or form as long as the Nuer nation and its resilient people remain alive and well. The Nuer would push for the seed of ‘democracy’ and our thick and strong blood have already watered such a seed to bloom and to grow and no one ever would neither remove it nor to destroy it in South Sudan soil. They would fight such individuals until death departs.

The same dictatorial, Stalinist’s state  and  Marxist-Leninist Bolshevik’s leadership style were inherited and emulated by the current Dinka dictator Salva Kiir Mayardit whose legacy shall be remembered as the most bloodletting, genocide … as the most gravest and the greatest crimes against humanity with the intention to murder people because of their group membership, even if political or economic. A second definition of genocide, which may be termed as democide is any intentional government murder of unarmed and helpless people for whateverreason. The 2013 Juba Genocide committed by Salva Kiir’s regime targeted the Nuer nationality or ethnicity for extermination as a “final solution” in whole or in part and the governmental intentional killings ofunarmed and helpless people for whatever reason in Juba town was genocide in violation of Article 6 of the UNCPPCG and the ICC rights.

Basically, genocide is a product of the type of government a country has. For instance, South Sudan has a diabolical non-benevolence dictatorship and entrenched ethnocentric (tribal) regime that Salva Kiir’s focuses only on his siblings, relatives and the Twic Dinka from Warap and Aweil in Northern Bahr-el-Ghazel States. R. J. Rommel writes on Genocide, says he that “There is a high correlations between the degree of democratic freedom a people enjoy and the likelihood that the government will commit democide.” Certainly, it has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt, that governments that commit most genocide or democide have been truly totalitarian, Marxist-Leninist, dictatorships, authoritarian, military junta and oligarchic governments or regimes on the planet-Earth.

Regardless of the type or system of government, the likelihood of genocide increases during their involvement in war, or when undergoing internal convulsions or disruptions as social revolution or social renaissances, rebellions, or foreign incursions. Such provides the cover and excuses for genocide. In time of peace and war, the motive for genocide may be designed specifically to deal with a perceived threat to the government or its politics, to destroy that one hates or envies, to pursue the ideological transformation or democratic change as opposed to dictatorship in society, to purify society, or to achieve economic or material gain. We would like the Nuer readers of this article to micro-macroscopically should focus specifically on the terms “hates”, “envies”, to pursue the ideological transformation of society, to purify society, or to achieve economic or material gains.” Specifically, the Dinka wanted to destroy the Nuer because of the economic gain because they are poor and do not have natural resources compared to the Nuer people the potentially richest in resources in Greater Upper Nile region and the Nuerland in particular. We would not allow the ignoramus and cannibal-likes Dinka to do this to the Nuer, but they have already paid a pretty high price and more would follow on the way as long as the crisis continues to loom in South Sudan.  

The Dinka tribesmen and power elite lack natural resources, hitherto, all of the above terminologies applied to the 2013 Juba Genocide. Salva Kiir’s has been all along  intended to reduce the number of the Nuer people to give the poor, weak, lazy and stupid Dinka an edge of over the Nuer nationality or ethnicity by targeting it for genocide as a “final solution” in whole or in part and to create what I may be called as “Dinkaphobia” as opposed to an inculcated “Nuerophobia” similar to “Germanophobia” or Europhobia and phobic phobia by the Dinka against the Nuer people that they often perceived with hate, contempt, jealousy, envies in the same patterns that Europeans, including British Isles have negatively perceived the Germans retrospect to the First World War (WWI) (1914-1919) and the Second World War (WW II) (1939-1945) and how the Asian peoples as a whole also have the same negative perception of Japanese during the periods of the First World War (WWI) (1914-1919) ended concluded by the Treaty of Versailles in Paris, France, in 1919 and the Second World War ended by Japan’s surrendered to the Americans under the commands of General MacArthur on 8 August 1945. In case of the Dinka, it was futile attempt to reverse the history of defeats from the Nuer nation and its resilient people. Major-General Mac Paul, the former Army Chief of Intelligence stated it at the outset in the leaked AU Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan Report (#17) that when they asked Salva Kiir “What was the problem?”

The Dinka dictator Salva Kiir a child and a woman killer replied that the problem is personal, everyone wants to be President. What’s wrong with that? His problem was that Dr. Riek Machar was acting outside the process of the SPLM…”  It was, surely, reflective of chronic old problem and vendetta against Dr. Machar that has been all the way held accountable for breakaway in 1991 and assumed was driven by similar personal problems”. Succinctly, there are no correlations at all, between the 1991 events and what occurred in an independent and sovereign de jure state, member of the AU and the United Nations organization. Realistically, the plan was to implicate Dr. Machar in the coup d’état attempt and if he had any shredded evident to support such a thing he could have invited all the IGAD countries and others to intervene in South Sudan similar to what is going on in Yemen with the Husseineen and the Saudis and its coalition. Nonetheless, such a designed has become a real and truly failure. So Salva Kiir goofed and would pay the price of his premature action against the Nuer nation and its resilient people. We shall and will make it loud and clear as the PM Churchill told to the English people against the German Luftwaffe (German Air Force) (GAF) raids over London during the WWII said he that “We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.”

We say in the same vein to the Nuer people that “we shall defend the Nuerland, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the Suds (marshes) of the Touich of the White Nile River, we shall fight on the landing strips, we shall fight in the farms, the bushes and in our villages, we shall fight on the fertile agro-lands; we shall not surrender to the defeated Jieng (Dinka) or Kuany (slave-like person or a Cinderella-like person that is less than a human being (raami raan or Naadth or Nath) (people of the people). Salva Kiir’s started this premature crisis he must put to an end or it must him to an end before the crisis puts an end Salva Kiir and his cronies. It was the US President John Fitzgerald Kennedy that said he that “Mankind mut put an end to war before the war puts an end to mankind.” We would also like Salva Kiir and his poorly and cowardly ill-trained generals to know that the Nuer nation and its resilient people are courageous and not afraid of forgiving for the sake of peace or afraid either of neither army of lions led by a sheep nor an army of sheep led by a lion.”

The Nuer people from the beginning wanted peace with their neighbors, but not aggression and genocide, and deliberate and willful killing of children and women that the nucleus of the nation for no good reasons at all. This made us to be bloody mad and angry. Nevertheless, we [the Nuer] shall forgive and we are courageous and are not afraid of forgiving, but we shall and will never ever forget the past events. If the Dinka people did not know in modern history of Sudan, my great father Chan Koryom Diet, the Great Prophet Dwal Deiu and the Great Prophet Nyundeng resisted the British colonial rule in Southern Sudan or otherwise known as the “Nuer Revolution” (al-Sana’a al-Nuer) (1900-1930) in contemporary Sudanese history and they never surrendered to the British suzerainty. Where was Salva Kiir’s grandfather, what did he do?  Succinctly, No Nuer person would surrender to anyone in South Sudan, but the Sixty-three (63) other tribes, including the Dinka would surrender to the Nuer people one way or the other. Without the Ugandan, the Dinka would have running like pack mad dogs out of Juba and would sooner rather than later. The Ugandan as protectors would soon get the hell out of South Sudan, where would Salva Kiir go to? We would not forgive him even he were to hold our feet for forgiveness he would have to die like those unarmed and helpless women, children, elderly, doctors, educators and the like in the 2013 Juba Genocide and beyond. We do know that he can run, but he cannot hide because we would know where, when and how to get hold of him to be brought to justice.

The reply and the vendetta that Salva Kiir an undereducated, constantly drunkard, primitive President and Benedict Arnold’s type could not be compared himself with an intellectual, thinker, a scientist, liberator or the George Washington of South Sudan and a leader of great people in South Sudan. Every Dinka and “Nuer Yieuni” or Camjiecni (useless, stupid and food first Nuers) referent to those that remained with a child and a woman kill and the minister of death in South Sudan, or what the Dinka called them “Nuer Wew” (Nuers for the money) should know henceforth that Dr. Machar has been (and still is) South Sudan George Washington rather than Benedict Arnold was represented by the late John Garang and his replacement the Dinka dictator Salva Kiir in Africa’s youngest failed state in South Sudan. We would like the South Sudan and the world to know and for the record that Dr. Machar has been the Nuer General Charles Gordon (the Chinese Gordon), the Nuer Churchill, the Nuer General Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Nuer J.F. Kennedy, the Nuer Chancellor Billy Brandt of Germany, the Nuer Professor Albert Einstein, the Nuer PM Aba Eban of Israel, the Nuer General Moshe Dayan of IDF, the Nuer President Nelson Mandela of South Africa, M.K. Gandhi of India, the Nuer Rt. Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr., of the US Civil Rights, German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer (1876-1967) of Germany, the UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld, President Havel of Czechoslovakia and  President Mikhail Gorbachev of the former Soviet Union. They would be more than ever determined through the democratic process for Dr. Riek Machar to become the next President of South Sudan by any means necessary.

We reckon that some idiots and empty heads jackasses like Salva would say No, No and No, that he could not become the President, but we, the people of the people plus our great allies within South Sudan, including the Dinka Community, we would “Yes” without any reservations and hesitation that Dr. Riek Machar shall and will become the next President of the would-be Federal Republic of South Sudan because he would be the only one that would nurse the nation to health, the chartered new course and to heal the wounds for reconciliation, forgiveness, but not to forget the past. We [the Nuer] as a courageous, brave and fearless race (ram mi raan) people of the people, we are not afraid of forgiving for the sake of peace. Peace will return to South Sudan by any means necessary. We shall overcome and we shall and will overcome this tragedy. The Nuer God through Kouth Nhial diede e long (God of heaven is great indeed)!

Succinctly, we would like the Dinka cousins to know that there could neither be South Sudan without a Nuer and to my Nuer beloved people and race nor there could be South Sudan without a Dinka. So this Algebraic equation must and ought to be balanced through peace; promotion of peace culture; social justice; social equality; democracy; democratization; the rule of law; human rights protection transparency and accountability.  Because these two groups with one-root divided only by the quest for political power and money amongst the power elites, there has been no enmity compared to the degree that Salva Kiir and his Twic Dinka militias have done against the Nuer counterparts.

We [the Nuer people] should not do as the Dinka have done because they did not know what they were doing or even if they did, we should not do like them. We should be greater than them all and this would become our strength and courage. Cognizant, that the Nuer are great and courageous people, we are often vulnerable to be attacked the weak and the wicked characters to provoke us to undertake ugly actions for them to win the world sympathy and support. This was really they did and what we from these historically defeated entities experienced in the 2013 Juba Genocide from our Dinka cousins. Down the road, we shall and will forgive them because of our greatness, but less we forget the death of our loved ones through the perpetrated 2013 Juba Genocide, unfortunately. Could there be forgiveness between the Dinka and the Nuer folks? Think about it on both sides of the opposing camps and the means to achieve this forgiveness, reconciliation and way forward. We do not have reservations and doubts because many songs have written that “There could be no forgiveness between the Nuer and the Dinka” which is in authentic Nuer language translation goes like this “Kamda ke Jing thiele maliech wa ke thiele Palaka” or “kamda ke Jieng thiele maliesh wa”. The Nuer people as a strong and courageous people, they fear no forgiving for the sake of peace. President Nelson Mandela said he that “Courageous people do not fear forgiving for the sake of peace.” The Nuer nation and its resilient people would not be afraid to forgive for the sake of peace as long as all the perpetrators of the 2013 Juba Genocide have been apprehended and brought to justice to be tried, sentenced for the wrongs that they have done, which they ought not to have done.  

Failure on the UN, the ICC, the AU and the IGAD, including the China-USA Test case diplomacy on South Sudan, the world and Africa could be rest assured that  the Nuer people would be committed than ever to get these cannibal-likes, criminals, thieves, devils, hooligans and thugs, whenever, wherever, however and whatever to get them like the Israeli Mosad hunted down worldwide the Nazis that committed the Holocaust--the systematic attempt by the German authorities during the Second World War (WWII) (1939-1945) to kill all and every Jew no matter where found-to destroy as a group. This has been exactly what Salva Kiir and his Twic Militias had intended to genocide or democide against the Nuer nationality in South Sudan similar to the 1994 Rwanda Genocide by the foolish and renegades Hutus’ majority against the courageous and the strongest Tutsi’s minority group in Rwanda. We would like the world and people of South Sudan to know that we (Nuer people) shall and will not rest until the perpetrators of the 2013 Juba Genocide, including Salva Kiir and Paul Malong Awan and others have been apprehended and brought to justice and justice-qua-justice. We would eagerly look for justice to be done because as the US Supreme Court Justice Thurmond Marshal said he that “justice delayed is justice denied.” The perpetrators of the 2013 Genocide should know that they can run, but they cannot hide. We would get them all no matter where they go in this international “global village” interconnected by technology or the Big Brother Science, Vipers, Skype’s, the Global Internet networks plus others. We promised them that they would be caught and brought to Justice dead or alive. There would be no escaped from the law. This is the bottom line.

If they go to North America, a Nuer is there to identify (ID) and to locate them to be apprehended; if they decided to go to the EU countries, they would encounter a Nuer to ID and to locate them to be apprehended; if the opted to venture to Australia (Aussie) or the World Under, they would also meet a Nuer to ID and to locate them to be apprehended. The same processes would apply to the Arab and Islamic world and Africa as a whole. We would not hesitate to punish them with impunity if any of these criminals should fail to cooperate with the law. Our best bet for them would be to report and to surrender themselves to the law when this hoopla of genocide that they have started would be over with sooner rather than later. We would like to state with confidence that the days of Salva Kiir’s regime are numbered. We do also reckon that now we affirmatively could truly confirmed and reaffirmed what we have been saying all along that “They [Dinka] are born to rule and not to be ruled” and that “They [Dinka] are the Chosen People” by whom and for what- remains a myth to be de-mythologized.

The world would be rest assured that these archaic and divisive preconceived negative ideas would be crashed and the seed of democracy that we {the Nuer] have watered with our thick blood as the ultimate sacrifice would prevail and to further fertile the ever fertile soil of South Sudan. We do feel pretty positive that the time is now for democracy and ethnic federalism similar to the ethnic federal system in Ethiopia would take shape and form in South Sudan. This is also another Nuer people contribution against the forces of dictatorship that its days are numbered and decreases daily.

Precisely, Salva Kiir has been a non-benevolence dictator, undemocratic, ethnocentric (tribal) and a child and a woman killer of unarmed and helpless civilian’s population in violation of Article 6 of the United Nation Convention on prevention and punishment of the Crime of Genocide (UNCPPCG) and the politically motivated rather legally motivated the so-called International Criminal Court) (ICC) on human right protection laws.

Last, but not least, we urge and appeal to all the Nuer people to unite together their ranks and files in times like these like a bundle of sticks tied together that no one can break them apart and like a wolf pack. This is for the second “darkest spot” in our nation history. The Nuer people experienced this tragedy at the hands of the British colonialists in 1915-20s during the Anglo-Nuer Revolution (1900-1930) against the British imperialism and colonialism in Sudan and Southern Sudan in particular. The Nuers were gassed by the British soldiers with Mustard Gas like it was tested on the Indio-British soldiers during the same period in the Sub-Continent. The Nuers were not sure that even the British colonial administration fell remorse and regretted what they did to the Nuer people with the Mustard Gas compared to the foolish Dinka who have been less remorseful. We do not seek any apology from them because no Nuer with good conscious and feel proud to be a Nuer would accept such an apology. We do not need it and would never ever ask for it. We have accepted the 2013 Juba genocide of unarmed and helpless people for no reasons that would really justified their cold blooded death, unfortunately. If anyone in the Nuer Community would accept any apology from a Dinka, he would be considered as the cowards of the cowards and as if a Dinka. Such Nuers who would do this would be without any preconditions or quid-pro-quos would be ostracized or ex-communicated for good from the Nuer nation or the Nuer Community. Our forefathers never ever accepted an apology from a Jieng (kuany cieng) (indenture slave-like). Such Nuer people who would do this be put automatically in the Black (Waragak in char) because such people are dumb (camjiecni) in the Nuer culture. It would be Salva Kiir vs. Salva Kiir to tell the world why he hates the Nuer nation and race so much in South Sudan. We would do our part to containment this hatred by any means necessary.

These tragedies have brought us together and so let’s keep it that way. We should become like the Euro-Jews and the Israelis and in the Middle East in South Sudan and to deal with impunity with anyone that has been against us and tries to pushing us into the White Nile (Kier in boor) dangerous crocodiles (Nyaang tin jiek) as cadavers (rieng naadth or Nath) for their dinner. We should all unite for our ranks and files for the cause to cede from South Sudan to become like Kurdistan-Iraq, Somaliland, Haregeisa, the ethnic federalism in Ethiopia, the Island nation of Cyprus that divided itself into Greco-Cypriots on Westside of the Island nation of Cyprus and the Turkish-Cypriots on Eastside of the Island nation of Cyprus, Abkhazia and South Ossetia that broke away from Georgia and recognized only by Mother Russia as independent and sovereign de jure states as well as the Christian Enclave of Nagornokaravhk in the Republic of Armenia. We should all solidly unite behind our great leader Dr. Machar or his replacement and the replacement of his replacement to lead us to victory in achieving the establishment of ethnic federalism and full democratic transformation in South Sudan. We should remain calm and to be patience because time is on our side. Fear nothing except fear itself and keep on moving forward with pride, dignity and to walk tall in the midst of those who hate you because of your group membership. Keep on smiling and be happy and merry and let’s not forget our dead in the 2013 Juba Genocide. What shall we do about China-US convergence and divergence as “test case diplomacy” on South Sudan?  Firstly, it was the US that has really helped South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011 after a referendum in which an overwhelmingly majority voted to secede to become the world’s failed youngest state.

The People’s Republic of China that has no historic interest and knowledge of the people and their cultures has become the most important patrons- constructing its roads and in exchange for stealing, depleting and siphoning or plundering its oil and gas. For the past year or so South Sudan’s leaders plunged the country into a dangerous civil war that could have dangerous geopolitical and geostrategic implications not only for South Sudan, but the entire Horn of Africa region and beyond. It could also become a test case in diplomacy between the USA and China, thus, raising the real question: Can Washington and Beijing turn their converging and diverging interests in South Sudan into a common shared strategy to halt the civil war? In order to stop the bloodshed, both China and the US should exert pressure points on Salva Kiir that has been more stubborn and irritate compared to Dr. Riek Machar that is always ready to negotiate peace with strength, but not in weakness for the good of the country.

Both the US-China have been supportive of Salva Kiir in the war for political investment in as far as the US is concerned and China as the main supplier of arms to Juba in exchange for pumping the oil and gas. The US sanctions and embargo against South Sudan would not work. China, which has espoused a policy of non-interference “still is one of the bedrocks for foreign policy in its partners’ domestic affairs, has revealed it into the position. Because China has opted to take side, it risks losing billions of dollars that it poured into the oil industry in two-Sudan states. The Nuer would not forgive China and it would be much preferable and healthy for them to call it quit before it’s too late. Let them go to Salva Kiir who does not have the black gold (oil) and to leave Dr. Machar alone who has got the black gold alone. Realistically, we the Nuer do not want the Chinese in our land and at the same time stealing our oil at our own expense. We will shoot the hell out of them to go out of the Nuerland and they know this statement well. It’s now about time for the US to wake up to respond to the Chinese foreign policy agenda in South Sudan. Who is worth amongst the two guys? Let the Chinese determine this equation.

The United States and China are now in camps compared to the opposite camps in Darfur crisis, the two-superpower have convergence and divergence interests, given the long structured suffering Sudanese region, the two superpowers share a lot of common ground on South Sudan. China, for instance, has made big economic investments, including the supply of massive arms to Salva Kiir’s regime; and the USA that midwife the birth of South Sudan has heavily invested politically. It was the US lobbyists that started this war and behind the scene involved President Yuri Museveni in this protracted nasty war in South Sudan.  In fact, both the US and China have one common interest in restoring stability to South Sudan and avoiding or averting disruptions to its oil flows. Whilst people are dying, both Washington and Beijing have opted to go slowly in the process. This is a clear reminiscent of the 1994 Rwanda Genocide and the extermination of the Jews with due knowledge of the European powers during the Second World War (WWII) and the gassing of the Kurds in Northern by the late dictator Saddam Hussein. Because the US has closed ties with the SPLM as ruling party in despite of the intentional genocide that it has committed against the Nuer nationality or ethnicity, they resisted taking any step like arms embargo that they would further weaken the dying regime in Juba.

The former US Envoy to South Sudan Princeton Lyman, put it like this “The US position is hardening in the administration, but it has taken a while.” Thus, based on the said, the US effort in the peace-building and peace-making- is to preserve its perceived threatened national security interest vital strategic national security interests and its foreign policy agenda. How long can the US do this without the intervention of other interested powers in South Sudan? We do know that the US did not care about the 2013 Juba Genocide against the Nuer people that have correlations with 1994 Rwanda Genocide by the Salva Kiir’s wicked racist, tribalist and apartheid regime in Juba. President Obama invited the child and woman to the White House that was in my viewpoint, to travesty to American democracy and the champion of human rights abuses throughout the world. The war is intensifying between the forces of Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar, force has killed tens for thousands, displaced more than two million people, brought the country to brink of disintegration famine and left trail of rape and killing.

The US engineered or manufactured the crisis, death, rapes, killings, and the UN has confirmed the recruitment of school children by the Kiir’s renegade and terrorist General Oolony[2] a reminder of what the Marxist-Leninist SPLM/A did in the past and the US through its lobbyists had covered up as such, a crime against humanity. In my capacity as an African Affairs expert, both the US and China have different histories in South Sudan. In the past, the US was supplying the Khartoum with arms to fight the southern rebels. When the US realized that its national security interests and its foreign agenda were at stake in the 1980s-1990s to early 2000s, it changed face against Khartoum and switched to support the Marxist-Leninist SPLM/A and supplied it with the non-lethal weapons and money against Khartoum regime and any Southern factions that was perceived to be closer to Khartoum labeled as an enemy and referred President Omer Hassan Al-Bashir to the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of genocide in the Western Sudan’s Darfur region.

China by contrast has been one Sudan most important allies- and still is. But when South Sudan split from the mother country in 2011, it took most of the oil oilfields and gas fields; China courted the dictatorial government in Juba and kept its stakes and interests in the oilfields and the Gas fields. The quest for oil in Greater Upper Nile region, made China to undertake an active role, considering its traditional policy of “non-interference” in its patrons domestic affairs. China dispatched its own troops numbering 750 soldiers to the UN peacekeeping mission and requested the UNSC to include an unusual mandate for the peacekeepers mission” peacekeepers are tasked with protecting not only civilians, but also the oilfields and the Gas fields which have been attacked and closed down by the rebels in South Sudan.  We would not allow any Chinese soldiers to set foot on the Nuer soil and oilfields because this would happen over dead bodies. Realistically, we wanted the Chinese Now and not tomorrow exit South Sudan soil!

Although China has claimed that it has stopped supplying arms to Juba, it continues doing it through Uganda as the end-user and transports such arms to Juba that it is helping fighting the rebel forces. The American-drafted resolution would impose travel ban and asset freezes on individuals who threaten the peace and security of South Sudan, including those accused of human rights abuses, recruitment of child soldiers and attacking UN personnel. This is a pretty weak resolution and still indicative that the US still supports Juba in despite of the 2013 Juba Genocide that targeted the Nuer nationality or ethnicity for genocide as a “final solution” in whole or in part. We could also assume that the US still standby Juba to protect its vital national security interest and its foreign policy strategic agenda in South Sudan and throughout the Horn of Africa and beyond. Furthermore, the US could also be behind the refusal of the African Union completed into the human rights abuses, but the peace talks are continuing. We could not agree more with the US Secretary-General and more 75 organizations calling for the release of the AU Report on the 2013 Juba Genocide and the human rights abuses.

THE RESOLUTINO OF THE CRISIS

Africa and the international community must and ought to acknowledge that the conflict in South Sudan has been genocide… as the gravest and greatest crimes against humanity has been defined by the UN Convention on Genocide in December 1949, which came to effect in January 1951. In Article II of the said Convention, the crime of genocide has been perpetrated against the unarmed and helpless Nuer people by the Government of South Sudan, Salva Kiir and Paul Malong Awan Twic Militias and the SPLA loyal to Salva Kiir and foreign powers on 15, 16, 17 and 18 December 2013 that shall be known heretofore as the 2013 Juba Genocide. Tens of thousands have been forced to seek refuge in the UNMISS compounds. The crime of genocide, rape of girls and women by both sides of the warring camps, rights violations in the country and the recruitment of child soldiers have occurred in Salva Kiir’s side.

In addition, the Uganda Air Force (UAF) planes dropped large sorties of internationally banned dangerous bombs such as, Napalm bombs, Cluster bombs, White Phosphorous bombs and Uranium depleted bullets utilized by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) planes against the Hamas fighters in Gaza Strip during the Twelve-Day War in 2012 and the Fifty-Day War in 2014 respectively, in which for the first time in the history of Arab-Israeli conflict every Israeli city was hit by barges of more than 1,500 rockets launched by Hamas freedom fighters in Gaza Strip into Israel with the US made Patriot intercepted only a third and similar to Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon in 2006 and 2008 respective, that forced Israeli ground forces defeated and forced to withdrawal in Southern Lebanon.

As a professional trained soldier and a veteran of the US Army, we do know and have firsthand knowledge and know-how the impact of the said internationally banned bombs on the lives of the people they have used against in the decades ahead. We could trace our experiences to the quagmire in the former French Indio-China (South Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and the pretty savaged and uncivilized utilization of these internationally banned bombs against the Palestinian Arabs in Gaza Strip and in Southern Lebanon. The people of Jongeli, Malakal and Bentiue, including any other areas in South Sudan would surely experience many mysterious diseases that they have not experienced in their lives in the future and the present. Of course, the British imperialist used Mustard Gas against the Nuer people during the Anglo-Nuer War (1915-1920) and against the Anglo-Indian soldiers in the Sub-Continent. Present Yuri Museveni of Uganda should be charged as an international war criminal, international terrorist for the utilization of the internationally banned bombs against unarmed and helpless people as per Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT, the UN International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) and the use of other banned arms of mass destruction (MAD). We would pursue this case internationally against President Yuri Museveni of Uganda by using weapons of death to make an apology and the payment of reparations to those people gravely affected and the pollution and contamination of the grass agricultural lands and the drinking waters of these traditionally Dinka-Nuer horticulturalists by the UAF in South Sudan.

The IGAD, the AU, the UN, international community, including the superpowers with vested economic, political; threatened economic and geopolitical and geostrategic national security interests should realize that there is a greater need to resolved the crisis in South Sudan prior to its escalation throughout the region. It resolution must be comprehensive and inclusive. Most the of the discussions, thus, have been concentrated on the reconciliation of the split SPLM Juba and the SPLM-in-Opposition at the expense and the exclusion of the original opposition known as the South Sudan Revolutionary Forces (SSRF)[3] comprised of different components that was also opposed to Dr. Machar and his in-law Taban Deng Gai led by Lt. General Gordon Kong Chol,, Lt. General James Gai Yoach, Professor/Ambassador David de Chand as its political leader. We fought the former Governor Taban Deng Gai who as a pretty closed ally then of Salva Kiir.

We have not forgotten that Taban then appointed Governor of the Unity State murdered one of our best generals, viz. Major Gatluak Gai (SAF) and many others that opposed to his malpractice, dictatorial, autocratic, undemocratic and authoritarian leadership in Unity State. Governor Taban Deng lured the general and is entourage and launched an attack to murder them without any prior noticed and his colleagues to a peace agreements and later. The impact of Taban Deng Gai’s (alas Mohamed Hassan) spillover bad leadership style still remains visible in Unity State during this period of the crisis. Because many people and the Bull Nuer and the Leek Nuer majority in particular, were isolated and rights abused by Governor Taban Deng Gai, many still believe that the ongoing crisis has been set of Taban Deng Gai’s returns once again as the Governor of Unity State. The exclusion of the Bull and the Leek Nuers has created defections and joined Salva Kiir’s because based on our underground intelligence and public relations in Unity State rest assured them that the brutal, ruthless and useless individual or the man called Taban Deng Gai would neither return as the Governor of the Unity State nor Dr. Riek Machar is the leader of the whole movement, but only the SPLM/A-In-Opposition (SPLM-I-Opp.) faction that many have rejected and do not even want to hear the ululations, i.e., “SPLA Oh Yea” in any gatherings. The current crisis in South Sudan has not been about the returning of Governor Taban and a return to Salva Kiir’s dictatorship. It has been all about the establishment of social justice, democracy; federalism and to force Salva Kiir to step aside or to step down from the Presidency. The non-SPLA-I-Op declared that the war has not been about the reintegration, reunification of forces with Juba, but has been about the grossed human rights abuses targeted against the Nuer people in the 2013 Juba Genocide.

The ongoing social revolution or social renaissance would be to rest assured all the people that it is about the establishment of democratic federalism that would grant each region and every people the right to govern itself and themselves based on their inherent cultural diversity and peculiarities to manage its own resources for the benefit of the its people and the region as well. The Greater Upper Nile shall govern itself as if in Kurdistan-Iraq, Somaliland, Haregeisa in the Horn of Africa, Abkhazia and South Ostia that separated from the Republic of Georgia, the divided Island nation of Cyprus into the Greco-Cypriots on the Westside of the Island and Turkish-Cypriots on the Eastside of the divided Island nation of Cyprus and the Christian Enclave of Nagorno-karavhk in the Republic of Armenia and many other political arrangements around the world. In conclusion, Governor Taban Deng Gai should reckon that the spirits of those he had maliciously murdered in Unity State would continue to haunt him until social justice has been and until death departs.

Presently, Taban has also attempted to Isolate Nuer intellectuals and professionals around Dr. Machar in the Movement that could have serious consequences for Dr. Machar’s leadership because there is greater possibility than ever that the Non-SPLA-In-Opposition could soon declare split from Dr. Machar’s SPLA-I-Op and  absolutely and resolutely no return to Juba, but to fight for the separation of Greater Upper Nile region from South Sudan to become a new independent and sovereign state through the exercise of the right to self-determination as a universal right guaranteed to “all peoples” under the UN Charter. The people of Greater Upper Nile do not want anything from Equatoria and Bahr-el-Ghazel regions. We wanted only to become free from these renegades, thugs and hooligans to determine our political, socioeconomic, cultural well being and the right to development for that. We know that he (Taban) has been ambitious to toss over the table against Dr. Machar with hope of rejoining his buddies the former SPLM Political Detainees otherwise the so-called Group of Thirteen (G- 13) and Talban’s lusts for power; he could do this alone because there would be no commanders join Taban Deng Gai.

The resolution of the conflict should involve the followings as pre-requisites for peaceful conflict resolution as follows that:-

1. Salva Kiir steps down or resigns from the seat of power and authority for the sake of the vital strategic national interest, its unity, its independent, its sovereignty and its territorial integrity. Without any preconditions or quid-pro-quos Salva Kiir returns the power and authority of the state to the people because such power and authority emanates from the people or the governed rather than from the governors because Salva Kiiir has failed the state and its people as a whole.

2. Formation of an Interim National Transitional Government (INTG) based on a shared federal system of government for a period of 18-30 months in which a federal Republican constitution be drafted, electoral laws, regulations and to return the written constitution to the people through a referendum to the people of South Sudan.

3. The head of the INTG shall be non-SPLM, reliable, above average educated; strong person with a national vision to reunite and to reconstruct the failed state, to promote peace and the culture of peace; reconciliation; forgiveness, but not to forget the past; mentally sound; moderately religious, non-ethnocentric (non-tribalist) or de-tribalized vs. tribalism, uniting all of the people in all political power sharing rather being egoist, selfless vs. selfishness; individualist or self-interests; to be decisive in decision-making; respectable and responsible; trusted by all of the warring parties or factions. In summation, the head of the transitional Interim Government must and ought to become a person of good character; non-corrupt, non-Dialectic Materialist that decisively believes and adjudicates social justice; democracy; freedom; liberty; social equality amongst all people regardless of race; color; tribe; gender; religion; human rights protection; national origin and gives fair and sound judgment to everyone according to the content of their characters.

4. Immediate and unconditional withdrawal of all foreign military forces from South Sudan soil- mainly the Uganda people’s Defense Forces (UPDF) who have been fighting at behest of Salva Kiir’s regime for the past sixteen months or so from South Sudan soil. All foreign forces shall comprehensively include and with no exception the UPDF, Rwandese, Somalis, Tanzanians, Burundians, Uganda- Rwanda-23 mercenaries and some elements from East and Central African countries; Soldier of Fortune (SF) from all IGAD countries with the exception or minus the Federal Republic of Ethiopia, the Republic of Djibouti and the Republic of Sudan (ROS). The Republic of Sudan rebel movement forces Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) (Tarboro) of Darfur; Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) (the Nuba Mountains) in Southern and Western Kordufan States, Central Sudan, the SPLA-North fighting at behest of Salva Kiir’s like the UPDF should also be withdrawn without any pre-conditions or quid-pro-quos as sine-qua-non to peace in South Sudan.

5. Failure on the IGAD, the African Union (AU), the TROIKA (the US, the UK and Norway) to undertake measures of implementing the preceded or the aforesaid or above-mentioned conditions conducive political atmosphere, could further escalate tensions to maximum or to the highest peak and denies détente (reduction of tensions), hostilities, insecurity and escalating the war not only between the warring factions in South Sudan, but throughout the Horn of Africa, East Africa and the Republic of Sudan and beyond. We would not be hesitating to seek military assistance from any powers to protect and to defend our people and the motherland from the UPDF neo-colonialism, neo-imperialism, occupation, international terrorism and international criminal justice system as well as  these international on slaughters, genocide resources that avail themselves to assist us by any means necessary in this extremely and acutely foreign military intervention, international terrorism, occupation, geopolitical and geostrategic dynamics interests converging and diverging of the superpowers intervention and the test cases diplomacy throughout the Horn of Africa region and beyond.

6. We further reiterate to the IGAD and the AU mediators that immediate departure of all foreign troops from South Sudan soil without any pre-condition or quid-pro-quos would be sine-qua-non to peace, promotion of the culture of peace, cessation of hostilities, just and durable negotiated peace settlement with the Dinka dictator Salva Kiir’s in Juba. We shall and will continue with the war against Kiir-Museveni forces, mercenaries and soldiers of Fortune and terrorists affiliated to the above-mentioned forces on the failed Republic of South Sudan (ROSS) soil.

7. The Government of South Sudan has acknowledged in principle that the crime of genocide… as the gravest and the greatest crime against humanity and other human rights abuses have been committed that targeted the Nuer nationality or ethnicity on 15, 16, 17 and 18 December 2013 in what shall be called hereinafter as the 2013 Juba Genocide throughout South Sudan.

8. We would request for the formation of the formation of the International Tribunal to try all suspected perpetrators of the crime of Genocide from Salva Kiir, Paul Malong Awan and others to be apprehended, indicted, tried and sentenced for the crimes that they have committed against humanity. We would also call for the establishment of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) in South Sudan as the most amicable and amenable way of healing the wounds, forgiveness, but not to forget and the GOSS should pay reparations to the families and children of unarmed and helpless Nuer civilians’ population targeted for extermination as a “final solution” in whole or in part and in violation of Article 6 CPPCG under the United General Assembly (UNGA) resolution 260 (III) A, Paris, France, of 9 December 1948 and came to effect on 11 January 1951.

9. We further reiterate that there would be no ceasefire and cessation of hostilities that the war would continue until all of the aforesaid conditions herewith have been adhered to and implemented appropriately by the IGAD, the AU, the UNSC and the TROIKA (USA, the UK and Norway).

10. There shall and will be two separate armies during the Interim Period in South Sudan and political power sharing based on 50/50% across the board and all powers shall be invested on the VP or the PM Office. Rejection of this demand by Juba could undermine and jeopardize the peace process.

11. Every region shall and will have the right to secede from the Union without any preconditions to become a state of its own.

12. Each region shall and will utilize it resources for the development and benefit of its population and to allocate only 15% to the central government and 85% remains within the state. The National Parliament cannot reverse this decision because the wealth found in each region belongs to people of the region rather the central government. Equitable progressive federal taxation would provide the central government with more than sufficient money.

13. We shall and will not accept any entry of foreign forces into South Sudan soil.

14. Chinese oil consortia and others shall and will withdrawal all their personnel from the oil fields and gas fields because all agreements between China and Sudan shall henceforth be declared invalidated and null and void. We would re-welcome the US, the UK and other Western oil companies to return to do business based on competition rather than on monopoly compared to the Chinese business style.

In conclusion, there is tenable alternative (TRA) solution to the current crisis in South Sudan. Because it is a crisis created by humankind, there is a solution at the horizon. There are no problems or crises without solutions from the public administration and public policy vantage viewpoint. In fact, for high spirited administrators, practitioners and public policy decision-makers often sought out solutions to resolve conflicts and to accommodate administrative, social and the wholesome functioning of the national institutional dynamics, whereas, the mediocre spirited administrators, practitioners, usually have been overwhelmed by the degrees of enormity of accumulated pending problems within the premises of any national, political, societal and institutional settings or establishments or frame of reference (worldview) on any given structured, functional, viable and vibrant nation-states. In the case of South Sudan crisis, we shall and will at the end strike or arrive at a realistic reasonable politico-legal solution that would become acceptable to all the warring parties on the ongoing critical and dangerous crisis that poses real threat to national disintegration, political unity in diversity, multiculturalism and indefinite political instability that moves the state from the status of instability to stateless to statelessness similar to Somalia in the Horn of Africa at end of the day. In South Sudan, we should deploy traditional and modern conflict resolution mechanisms.

The IGAD, the AU, the UNSC, the superpowers, China-US influences in South Sudan should remain impartial and should not attempt to externally superimpose solutions to be based on traditional and modern mechanisms. Nevertheless, the entire responsibility to achieve peace and political conflict resolution remains solely with South Sudanese to exercise leadership, soberness, patience, endurance, reconciliation, forgiveness, but not to forget the past. Unless the warring factions moderate their positions, the likelihood of achieving durable and permanent peace remains grimes. This could impact, political stability, socioeconomic takeoff, human resources development and cohesion to prevent it from furthering or escalating the crisis to the point of no return that could possibly push the region to become an international ‘hot spot’ that could not be for the mutual benefit of the parties concerned.

Whether Salva Kiir’s regime likes it or not, the crimes of genocide… as the gravest and the greatest crimes against humanity has occurred that targeted the Nuer nationality with intention to murder them because of their of their group membership, even if political or economic gain in South Sudan. In addition, war crimes, crimes against humanity and other heinous crimes have been committed against humanity in South Sudan. The GOSS could not have the luxury of the slightest nerve, guts and gusto to deny this well-calculated, well-perpetrated, well-established, well-established, well- orchestrated and well-documented evident and political reality that the Nuer nationality as been targeted for extermination as a “final solution” in whole or in part. We would suggest or recommend that in order to heal the wounds, the IGAD; the ICC should establish an international tribunal in South Sudan to try all suspected accomplices of the crime of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. Most importantly, the GOSS should establish the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) in South Sudan similar to the experiences in post-apartheid South Africa. Salva Kiir would be defeated and there would be no Dinka domination, exploitation, oppression never now and forever in South Sudan! We [the Nuers) would not permit at all any dictatorship to flourish on South Sudan soil, but the seed of democracy that we already watered with strong blood and sweat shall and will always be flourishing forever in South Sudan. This is the bottom line.

Professor Dr. David de Chand is the Chairman of the South Sudan Democratic Front Party.


[1][1] John Young, THE FATE OF SUDAN:THE ORIGINS AND CONSEQUENCES OF A FLAWED PEACE PROCESS (Zed Books, London, 2012), pp. 17-18

[2] General Oolony was one of our generals in the SSRF before he paid off with big money to get the small Shilluk traditional kingdom in the civil war or as if a tribal warfare. He has been paid with big cash by Salva to fight the Nuer majority in the state of Upper Nile. We do know that he was misled, but there would be forgiveness for him and his colleagues who have killed unarmed and helpless Nuer people in Malakal. E should now rethink about the future and the big cash to kill others who have no problems with him and the Shilluk people in Upper Nile State.

[3] South Sudan Revolutionary Forces(SSRF) components were as follows: Sudan Defense Force (SDF); South Sudan Libration Army (SSLA); South Sudan Democratic Army (SSDA); South Sudan National Revolutionary Army (SSNRA); Copra Forces (COF); and the Nuer White Army (NWA).

Alex de Waal and Sudan: A brief history one man’s destructive misrepresentations

By Eric Reeves

April 17, 2015 (SSNA) -- Al Jazeera America is currently airing a two-part documentary that attempts to represent the character and causes of the catastrophe that has overtaken South Sudan following the explosive outbreak of violence in mid-December 2013 (“South Sudan: Country of Dreams”). It comprises a considerable number of interviews—of ordinary South Sudanese victims, a few of South Sudan’s officials on both sides of the terrible ethnic divide that now splits the country and the former national army (but no interviews with senior government officials)—and a number of Sudan “experts.” I, along with Ted Dagne and John Prendergast, are put on one side of the implicit narrative argument in this painfully unbalanced documentary; Alex de Waal, a long-time commentator and activist on Sudan represents the other side of this “argument.”

The film itself is often poorly or confusingly edited, even for someone who knows a fair bit about what occurred in South Sudan before and after December 15, 2013, when violence exploded, precipitating a brutal civil war that immediately took on a vicious ethnic character. It will be more confusing for those who do not know the history of South Sudan. The documentary is marred by key omissions, an imbalanced representation of the two “sides” in the conflict, and tendentious characterizations of Dagne, Prendergast, and myself. At one point we are described as giving our “devotion to the new rebel army in the South.” But the “new rebel army” came into being with the notable uprising in Bor (Jonglei State) in 1983, long before any of us began our work on bringing a just peace to all of Sudan. And it was to this just peace that we were “devoted,” not the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) (the “Movement” part of the title is almost always omitted by de Waal and the documentary, even as it is a clear sign of a nascent political vision).

This is only one sign of the weakness of historical understanding evident in the first installment of the documentary. It mentions almost in passing that the three of us wrote a very open letter to Salva Kiir, President of South Sudan, in July 2013, warning in emphatic detail of the catastrophe that would likely unfold if Kiir and the Government of South Sudan (GOSS) did not address a number of key issues, including inter alia corruption, the absence of development, and the lack of progress toward a more democratic form of governance in the South. Although the filmmakers were informed by each of us that the letter was only the last, and perforce public, communication with Kiir and the GOSS—that we had been privately raising these issues with the government and working to help address them for several years prior—this fact is not noted in the brief reference to the July 2013 letter. This letter was widely circulated among South Sudanese, and received extensive coverage in the Sudan Tribune. A great many South Sudanese celebrated the letter as precisely what was needed from longtime friends of South Sudan.

The second installment of the documentary airs this coming Monday (April 20) and there seems little reason to hope for a more accurate or historically informed presentation. Interviews with Dagne, Prendergast, and myself will continue to be truncated and misleadingly edited. This is not likely to be true for Alex de Waal, however, who is repeatedly given the opportunity to express his views in extended interview segments. Indeed, the filmmakers have chosen to promote the documentary with a very extended, self-serving, and deeply misleading interview with de Waal. I offer here a substantial correction to the errors and misrepresentations that define de Waal’s interview.

I should say that more broadly, I will be offering two further surveys of de Waal’s actual record of engagement on Sudan, both north and South, a record that has led to his current position as Executive Director of the modestly named World Peace Foundation at Tufts University. For his career has been marked by participation in various diplomatic failures around Sudan’s conflicts, by highly inaccurate characterizations of conditions prevailing in various parts of Darfur, and by a notably abrupt change in his views on whether Darfur was the site of genocide—this shortly prior to his becoming an advisor to the African Union, which adamantly rejects the characterization of Darfur as the site of genocide. The AU provided diplomatic auspices for negotiation of the ill-fated Abuja (Nigeria) peace agreement for Darfur, an agreement that de Waal continued to defend long after it had become clear that the regime in Khartoum had no intention of fulfilling its obligations under the agreement. Moreover, it soon became evident that the agreement had exacerbated splits within the ranks of the Darfuri rebel groups, leading to an upsurge of much more chaotic violence.

For more than a decade I have commented publicly on a number of telling moments in de Waal’s career—commentary that has appeared in Dissent Magazine, The New Republic, The Guardian (UK), The Washington Post, Sudan Tribune, and a number of other academic and news venues. A partial bibliography appears here as Appendix C. The present analysis will focus exclusively on the interview given to Al Jazeera since its misrepresentations and factual errors are so numerous.

Southern Independence

De Waal declares that,

“The chief culprit for the independence of South Sudan is the government of northern Sudan. The government of President Bashir was unable or unwilling to fulfill basic promises to make unity attractive, to invest in South Sudan. The residual option, the fullback option of a vote of self-determination, including the option of independence emerged slowly over time to become the default option.”

This is inaccurate and highly misleading. A self-determination referendum, with secession as an option, had long been the goal of John Garang and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement. Indeed, one way of looking at the history of Sudan since independence in 1956 is the slow but ineluctable move of the South towards an insistence on self-determination. The United States actively opposed a self-determination referendum, and in early 2002 former Senator and then Presidential Special Envoy for Sudan John Danforth told John Garang that the SPLA/M needed to take the referendum off the negotiating table (Danforth had just been speaking with the Egyptians, who were strongly opposed to Southern independence). Garang defiantly said he would not, no doubt startling the emissary of President George W. Bush. Garang held resolutely on the issue, and in July 2002 the landmark Machakos Protocol was signed by the Khartoum regime and the SPLA/M; it guaranteed precisely, as part of any final peace agreement, a self-determination referendum with the option of secession.

When I made my only trip to Sudan six months later in January 2003 (a decade-long struggle with leukemia has prevented a return trip), I visited a number of towns in South Sudan (Rumbek, Lui, Marial Bai, Yei, Mundri) as well as the Nuba Mountains. I spoke to a great many people, in the SPLA/M, civil society, and ordinary South Sudanese. Every single person—every person—made clear that he or she was in favor of secession from (north) Sudan, typically in emphatic fashion. My experience was in no way unique. And when the opportunity finally came to vote on the issue in January 2009, all evidence pointed to an overwhelming, indeed virtually unanimous vote for secession. And yet de Waal, in commenting on this palpable political reality, can only bring himself to say snidely, if incoherently:

“The elections of 2010 were fraudulent in the South. Not much doubt about that. And indeed [so was] the referendum of January 2011—there are very, very few places in the world you could get a vote of 99 percent, and Western countries and democracy advocates would be applauding it. Most of them would be looking, more carefully they'd be saying, ‘There must be something fishy here.’”

This is de Waal at his most disingenuous, conflating the political elections of 2010 that occurred throughout Sudan (north and South) and the specific electoral event that was the self-determination of January 9, 2011. Salva Kiir would certainly have won the presidency of the interim South Sudan in 2010 with or without political machinations: he was head of the SPLM and no other political group had yet to emerge with power significant enough to challenge him. Moreover, the 2010 elections in the South were overseen by regional and international monitors. But to suggest by insinuation, as de Waal does, that the 98.7 percent vote for independence was anything but an expression of the deepest desire of the people of South Sudan is tendentious and perversely inaccurate, and belied by every image we have of the response of South Sudanese to the voting results. He has no company in his assessment, and the evidence he presents—“[there are] very, very few places in the world you could get a vote of 99 percent, and Western countries and democracy advocates would be applauding it”—is at once accurate and completely irrelevant to the unique situation of South Sudan. Nowhere is his lack of experience in South Sudan, or understanding of its people, more conspicuous.

He briefly and very generally notes the failure of the regime to abide by the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), but mainly as a way of leading to his tendentious and historically inaccurate claim that “the fullback option of a vote of self-determination, including the option of independence emerged slowly over time to become the default option.” Here it is particularly important not to offer such facile generalizations, but to see clearly the many ways that Khartoum failed to make Sudanese unity an attractive option for Southerners; rather, the regime defiantly refused to meet the essential benchmarks of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (see my extended analysis of this failure, “The Slow Collapse of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement for South Sudan,”). Whether the issue was Khartoum’s military withdrawal from the south, disarming its proxy militia in the oil regions and elsewhere, accepting the findings of the Abyei Boundary Commission, equitably sharing oil wealth from production in South Sudan, or creating a meaningful partnership in national governance, the regime failed to meet its obligations and promises—failed the essential challenge that had been clearly laid out for them: “make the continued unity of Sudan attractive to Southerners,” and to do this through abiding by the terms of the CPA.

To take but one example: the failure to abide by the Abyei Protocol of the CPA led to Khartoum’s military seizure of the region in May 2011. Instead of the promised Abyei self-determination referendum, the region historically defined by the presence of the Dinka Ngok has been slowly, relentlessly annexed by Khartoum following its military seizure. It remains a dangerous flash-point because of the diplomatic failure to halt what were Khartoum’s clearly impending actions—a failure of the international community and the African Union’s chief Sudan diplomat Thabo Mkebi that may yet lead to renewed war. Neither the Al Jazeera documentary nor de Waal has mentioned Abyei, which suffered terribly during the long civil war because the people of the region have long identified culturally, ethnically, and politically with the South. Indeed, if the terms of the Abyei Protocol had been followed, Abyei would today be part of South Sudan. Its exclusion is another example of tendentiously selective history.

At one point de Waal declares, with supporters of South Sudan in mind: “I'm guessing that when people identify personally with a cause, they can very easily lose their objectivity.” But ironically it is de Waal, with his own “cause” and willfully arbitrary history, who lacks objectivity.

Human Rights Abuses During the Civil War (1983 – 2005)

This lack of objectivity is most conspicuous in an extraordinary claim made by de Waal that gets to the heart of his clear animus against the SPLA/M and John Garang:

“The human rights record of the SPLA throughout the entire war has at no time been any better than the human rights record of the Sudan government. And those who advocated on behalf of the SPLA knew it, they knew it perfectly well.”

Both sentences here are slanderously inaccurate. It should be noted first that the SPLA was hardly a coherent army, especially after the defections to Khartoum in 1991 by Riek Machar (of the Nuer tribe and now nominally leading the rebellion in the South) and Lam Akol (of the Shilluk tribe, who was Sudan’s Foreign Minister for several years following the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in January 2005). These self-serving defections—both men were treated royally by Khartoum and in return they signed the wholly factitious Khartoum Peace Agreement (1997)—created the conditions for an ethnic bloodbath, and one of the first notable events following the defections was the infamous Bor Massacre of 1991, in which many thousands of Bor Dinka were killed by Riek’s Nuer forces. But the central claim by de Waal—“The human rights record of the SPLA throughout the entire war has at no time been any better than the human rights record of the Sudan government”—is deeply, perversely inaccurate and distorts human rights history in the region in a most culpable fashion. The examples of asymmetry are numerous and highly consequential.

Only Khartoum had (and has) an air force, and it bombed—relentlessly and indiscriminately—civilians and humanitarians during the entire time it conducted war against the South (1989 – 2005), and indeed continues to bomb civilians in the South to this day. Hospitals in Equatoria were a favorite target, and yet despite his claim to have spent time in this, the most southerly part of South Sudan, de Waal finds no time to note this most barbarous of human rights abuses; yet each such attack was manifestly an atrocity crime.

Serious recording of such bombing attacks began with a report by Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in 2000. MSF-Switzerland (which operated a medical facility in Kajo Keji, Central Equatoria), had conducted a survey of bombing attacks against civilians in South Sudan and reached unambiguous conclusions. In 1999, the year MSF won the Nobel Peace Prize, the organization found that Sudan Armed Forces aircraft bombed the Kajo Keji hospital 10 times, dropping a total of 66 bombs. After experiencing repeated attacks on its hospital, MSF began an investigation of several reported bombing sites in Equatoria. Even though its investigation covered only 15 of the sites where civilian bombings allegedly occurred, MSF documented 60 separate raids on civilian and humanitarian

targets during 1999 alone.

The authors concluded that Khartoum’s military dropped almost 400 bombs on these targets. MSF’s investigation found that (a) “the bombings are aimed at the civilian population and civilian targets, in particular hospitals and schools”; (b) the Khartoum regime appeared to be using chemical weapons and cluster bombs on civilian populations; (c) the bombing campaign was part of a “policy of terror which provokes new displacements of the population and increases the precariousness of the civilian population” (Médecins Sans Frontières, Living under aerial bombardments: Report of an investigation in the Province of Equatoria, Southern Sudan, February 20, 2000). Just yesterday, Human Rights Watch reported on Khartoum’s use of cluster bombs in its campaign against civilians in the Nuba Mountains:

“The evidence that Sudan’s army has used cluster bombs in Southern Kordofan shows the government’s total disregard for its own people and civilian life,” said Daniel Bekele, Africa director at Human Rights Watch. “Sudan should immediately stop using these horrendous weapons, destroy its stockpiles, and respect the prohibition on cluster munitions by joining the Convention on Cluster Munitions.” (Human Rights Watch, “Cluster Bombs Used in Nuba Mountains” April 16, 2015)

Does Alex de Waal find anything equivalent to this in the conduct of the SPLA during the civil war? Of course not. But specific examples of Khartoum’s unconstrained use of aerial munitions abound, and as Khartoum continues to bomb civilians in Darfur, South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and indeed South Sudan, we know that there are now more than 2,000 confirmed incidents of aerial attacks deliberately targeting civilians and humanitarians and humanitarian resources (see www.sudanbombing.org). The actual number of aerial attacks is almost certainly many times this figure. For example, Nuba Reports calculates (February 2015) that more than 3,000 bombs have been dropped on the Nuba Mountains alone since June 2011.

A few days in the lives of the people of South Sudan will give some sense of what was represented by Khartoum’s aerial savagery. On May 22, 2002 Norwegian People’s Aid reported from the village of Rier (in what was then Western Upper Nile): the village was bombed, in the middle of the night, by a high-flying aircraft, without any bomb-siting mechanism; some twenty civilians were killed and almost 100 wounded. Nearby Tam was bombed the following day (May 23, 2002) and relief workers in Lokichoggio (Kenya) reported that Khartoum had also bombed the village of Lil (also in what was then Western Upper Nile) on May 21, 2002, killing another 17 people (information from Reuters [Nairobi], May 24, 2002).

How brutal were these attacks? In addition to deliberate attacks by high-flying Antonov cargo planes (crudely retrofitted as “bombers,” with no absolutely no militarily useful accuracy)—targeting organizations such as MSF and the International Committee of the Red Cross—Khartoum also used helicopter gunships acquired from Russia to effect brutal civilian clearances, as it has in Darfur and South Kordofan. One incident, witnessed at close range by workers for the UN’s World Food Program at Bieh, in the heart of the oil development region of Western Upper Nile—an area that was being “ethnically cleansed”—makes clear how grotesque de Waal’s claim of “moral equivalence” between the SPLA and Khartoum’s military.

On February 20, 2002 the target was the village of Bieh (in the middle of Oil Concession Block 5a), just to the east of construction of an all-weather road for heavy drilling equipment. The village was scouted by two SAF Mi-24 helicopter gunships; both had flown over Bieh twice earlier in the day. On the final pass, in broad daylight, one gunship hovered overhead and conducted precautionary reconnaissance. The other helicopter gunship moved to a low hover position and then directed machine-gun fire and numerous rockets into a crowd of mainly women and children who had gathered for a WFP food distribution. Twenty-four civilians were killed (including children), scores were injured, and many fled into the bush without food. A former high-level Western official who was camped near Bieh on an assessment mission at the time of the attack reported that even more casualties were discovered burned to death in the village tukuls that had been attacked with rockets.

Humanitarian sources confirmed that there was no military presence in or near Bieh. Moreover, the faces of the pilot and gunner could be clearly seen from the ground by WFP workers; the gunner and pilot, in turn, could clearly see that they were firing on noncombatants. This was made explicit at the time by Laura Melo, WFP spokeswoman in Nairobi:

"The helicopter was flying low enough that our staff could see inside the helicopter and a man inside firing a machine gun. How could they not see that there was food being distributed, that women and children were receiving food?” Melo said. (Associated Press [Nairobi], February 28, 2002)

Moreover, as Melo also pointed out, WFP had informed Khartoum officials of the food distribution (“All [humanitarian] interventions are cleared ahead of time and this one was also cleared”); the UN compound in Bieh was also well-marked and well-known. The facts are simply indisputable (a photographic record was made by relief workers at the time), and it is all too clear that the SAF intention was to kill civilians gathered for food aid and disrupt humanitarian relief in Bieh (there was of course an immediate withdrawal of all humanitarian personnel).

The burden is on de Waal to offer examples of similar barbarism and “human rights abuses” by the SPLA.

De Waal also makes no mention of the fact that the SPLA was much more humane in its treatment of Prisoners of War (POWs) during the civil war, and this continued up to and beyond the signing of the CPA. This was also true during the fighting around Heglig (April 2012) in the disputed western oil region, and has even been true during much of the current violence. Dagne, who has much more experience with this issue than de Waal, is emphatic about how poorly Southerners were treated by their Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) captors. Indeed, a recent vignette in South Kordofan captures all too well the SAF attitude toward “rebel POWs,” who were often summarily executed. Ahmed Haroun, Khartoum’s governor in South Kordofan and indicted by the International Criminal Court for massive crimes against humanity in Darfur, was captured on camera in March 2012 telling his forces that they were not to bring back any prisoners alive: “bring back no prisoners and clear the area out of all burdens.” (A video of this outrageous command to commit war crimes is available at: https://radiotamazuj.org/en/article/haroun-tells-army-take-no-prisoners).

It is worth noting that de Waal himself has previously described the nature of Khartoum’s conduct of war in the oil regions of Western Upper Nile (present-day Unity State) as “genocidal,” which creates a rather embarrassing asymmetry with his claim that “The human rights record of the SPLA throughout the entire war has at no time been any better than the human rights record of the Sudan government.” Or perhaps he simply omitted the accusation that the SPLA also committed genocide—and perhaps the omission comes because there is no evidence of such a campaign by the SPLA. But in August 2004 in The London Review of Books (“Counter-insurgency on the Cheap”) de Waal concluded his assessment of the crisis in Darfur in the following terms:

This [counter-insurgency campaign in Darfur by Khartoum] is not the genocidal campaign of a government at the height of its ideological hubris, as the 1992 jihad against the Nuba Mountains was, or coldly determined to secure natural resources, as when it sought to clear the oilfields of southern Sudan of their troublesome inhabitants. This is the routine cruelty of a security cabal, its humanity withered by years in power: it is genocide by force of habit.”

De Waal would conveniently disown these words about Darfur shortly before taking a position as an advisor to the African Union, which as I’ve indicated is adamantly opposed to the characterization of Darfur as the site of “genocide.” But his description of what occurred in Western Upper Nile—“[a genocide] coldly determined to secure natural resources, as when [the Khartoum regime] sought to clear the oilfields of southern Sudan of their troublesome inhabitants”—has far too much truth in it to be disowned, even by de Waal.

Engineered Famine

De Waal’s claim that “the human rights record of the SPLA throughout the entire war has at no time been any better than the human rights record of the Sudan government” is also belied by countless other features of Khartoum’s unspeakably barbarous military campaign. Although the causes of the 1998 famine in Bahr el-Ghazal were several, our most authoritative assessment of this event—which cost perhaps 100,000 lives—comes from Human Rights Watch. And although Human Rights Watch points to SPLA human rights abuses as being one of the causes of the famine, the far greater responsibility lies with Khartoum’s regular and proxy forces (see Appendix A).

Khartoum also used the notorious “peace camps” as a means of fighting the SPLA by controlling, or starving, the population of the Nuba Mountains during the 1990s. Again, Human Rights Watch provides our best account of these camps and the brutal humanitarian embargo imposed by the regime on the people of the Nuba. In 1998 Congressional testimony, the Human Rights Watch witness spoke of the way in which the Khartoum regime (then the National Islamic Front, a name that became too much of a burden by 1999) sustained a humanitarian embargo that threatened hundreds of thousands of innocent Nuba civilians:

This time the government uses the pretext of an ambush killing three relief workers that must be investigated before anything else happens; responsibility for the ambush is not clear. Many see the UN's failure to push for equal access to the rebel areas of the north as colluding in the government's attempts to starve the Nuba into submission. At the same time as it delays food relief for the needy in SPLA areas of the Nuba Mountains, the government is engaging in scorched earth tactics against this civilian population, looting animals and crops, and burning what abductees cannot carry. It also displaces those living in fertile valleys into the higher and less fertile land. Now hunger is driving Nubas to the garrison towns and peace camps, in search of food and clothes. Because the Nuba Mountains are isolated from any international border or SPLA area, the government has successfully cut off most ordinary commerce to the area, so basic items such as used clothes, salt and sugar are rarely available, at any price. [See also Appendix B]

Precisely the same tactics are being used in the Nuba Mountains today—precisely the same tactics. There was and is no equivalent tactic on the part of the SPLA or SPLA-North (the SPLA/M-North comprises the remnants of two divisions of the SPLA that were based in South Kordofan and Blue Nile; the SPLA and SPLA-North are not the same entity). De Waal knows this but finds it inconvenient to mention.

John Garang, SPLA/M leader

The animus, indeed hatred that de Waal feels for SPLA/M leader John Garang is extraordinarily intense and often mindless in the claims it leads to. Ted Dagne, John Prendergast and I all met with Garang on a number of occasions, and held substantial discussions. Dagne had by far the closest connection, perhaps of anyone in the United States, and holds de Waal’s assessment of Garang in utter contempt. None of us believes that de Waal ever had a serious meeting with Garang, although it is impossible to be certain. Garang would certainly have known of de Waal’s attitudes towards him and would have been highly unlikely to see the benefit of meeting someone with such views.

I was fortunate to meet with Garang on more than half a dozen occasions, twice for extended one-on-one discussions of South Sudan and the broader issues of Sudan, once in his home in Nairobi. I found Garang highly intelligent, clear in vision, disciplined in his thinking, and ultimately charismatic, a word I am not accustomed to using. I was and am well aware of the accusations of an authoritarian bent in Garang, and I don’t doubt it. Given the challenges of conducting a guerilla war against a genocidal regime, and at the same time preparing for the possibility of an eventual Government of South Sudan, Garang was under enormous pressure. He was demanding, insistent, but always disciplined; I know of no evidence of a man possessed by demons or given to gratuitous violence. De Waal, whose animus toward Garang is of longstanding, sees him as “ruthless” (a word he uses twice), “completely intolerant of dissent” (a judgment de Waal is simply not in a position to make), and most tellingly declares that:

And [those who advocated on behalf of the Garang and the SPLA/M knew perfectly well that] leader John Garang [merely] spoke the language of equality, of democracy, of freedom. Now, other liberation movements around the world—take the ANC of Nelson Mandela—have insisted that they should hold themselves to a higher moral standard than their adversaries. They will not sink to the level of the oppressor. They will behave better. They will have deeply entrenched principles of human rights, during the struggle, they will not postpone morality, freedom, progress until they win.

This ecstatic representation of the African National Congress will be troubling to many who have watched the ANC, after the dismantling of apartheid and the retirement of Nelson Mandela from public life, become something other than an exemplar of freedom and tolerance, or ideal supporter of human rights (consider South Africa's relationship with Mugabe's Zimbabwe). But de Waal has no time to consider qualifications as he hastens on to the judgment he is so eager to render:

"Not [so] the SPLA, and the 'International Friends of the SPLA.' Instead of holding the SPLA to a higher standard than its adversary, they forgave it its crimes because of the perceived justice of its cause. They held it to [sic] high esteem but to low standards."

Historical accuracy again seems to have slipped away from de Waal here as in his anger he apparently conflates the SPLA/M of today with John Garang, who died in a helicopter crash ten years agoten years ago. To hold him accountable for the undoubted mistakes, corruption, and human rights abuses of the SPLA/M of today is simply perverse. There is no telling what the fate of South Sudan would have been had Garang not died, but it is worth recalling that on his first visit to Khartoum (July 2005) as First Vice President of Sudan he was greeting with wild enthusiasm by more than 1 million people, a great many of them not people displaced from the South, although the reaction of Southerners as recorded by all news agencies was of joy, happiness, and relief.

The SPLA/M, Past and Present

It is all too clear that de Waal, in speaking about current events, is still disposed to allow his animus toward Garang to produce distorting conflations with the SPLA/M leadership of today. It also leads him to deeply and consequentially inaccurate characterizations of the Khartoum regime. Speaking of past U.S. “practical moral, political support to the SPLA, including a host of measures intended to isolate and weaken Khartoum,” de Waal immediately proceeds on to a claim of surpassing disingenuousness, indeed mendacity:

“And even though events have changed—Khartoum stopped supporting terrorism, Khartoum signed peace agreements—the SPLA did not turn out to be a force democracy and human rights.”

However we assess the SPLA/M of today, it is important to note how inaccurate de Waal’s claim about Khartoum is, and how absurd it is as a basis for judging the SPLA/M.

A wealth of evidence makes clear that Khartoum does in fact still supports terrorist groups, radical Islamist groups, jihadis, and extremists of various sources. Sudan is one of only three countries that will remain on this year’s U.S. State Department list of state sponsors of terrorism (along with Syria and Iran, with which the Khartoum regime leadership desperately wants a “strategic relationship,” despite supporting Saudi Arabia in its fight against the Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen). Khartoum has allowed Sudan to be used as a conduit for weapons from Iran to Hamas in Gaza, and still allows Hamas to operate openly in Sudan.

But it is de Waal’s casual noting that “Khartoum signed peace agreements” that marks out a deeply disturbing willingness to abuse facts. Khartoum has indeed signed a host of peace agreements, and like all agreements the regime has signed over the past 25 years, they have proved worthless. The National Islamic Front/National Congress Party regime has never abided by a single agreement it has signed with any Sudanese party—not one, not ever. And de Waal knows this full well.

Khartoum’s bad faith is clear whether we are speaking of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (abrogated on multiples accounts by Khartoum, most egregiously the Abyei Protocol, but also including border delineation, wealth- and power-sharing before secession, and a range of security measures); or the Darfur Peace Agreement (Abuja, 2006); or the Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement (October 2006); or the agreement known as the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (July 2011); or the Status of Forces Agreement with the UN/African Union Peacekeeping Force (UNAMID); or various humanitarian access agreements—the list goes on and on. To adduce the fact that Khartoum has simply signed agreements as evidence of anything having changed in Sudan, or the regime, is intellectually dishonest, indeed a disgrace. It is thus the height of arrogant self-righteousness for de Waal to conclude his interview with Al Jazeera by declaring:

I think when the advocates for South Sudan, both inside the government and outside the government, reflect on the role they've played over the last 20 years, they need to ask themselves some very, very searching questions about their own responsibilities for enabling the South Sudanese political, military elite to construct such a profoundly corrupt and abusive system of government. It's really quite shocking.

What de Waal Ignores

This strident assignment of blame ignores a great many features of the history of the ten years since John Garang’s death and indeed the decade preceding. Most notably it ignores the efforts by Dagne, Prendergast, and myself—separately and together—to speak forcefully and publicly to the leadership of the Government of South Sudan and the leadership of the SPLA/M, as well as to offer advice on economic development most likely to avoid the temptations of corruption in the face of sudden, massive oil revenues—a formula for disaster in too many Africa countries. It ignores the efforts of many “advocates for South Sudan,” a number of them based in the region—including, importantly, the churches and the South Sudan Council of Churches in particular—to speak out against corruption. It ignores the efforts by NGOs and others to bring pressure to bear for reform. It ignores the work of human rights groups over the past several years in calling attention to abuses, especially Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. And it ignores the broader efforts on behalf of the marginalized regions of Sudan that have distinguished our work, our advocacy, and the numerous occasions on which we have testified before the Congress. All of Sudan has been our concern, not just South Sudan, as de Waal would have it.

De Waal is unaware of the quiet work behind the scenes because he was nowhere on the scene in South Sudan. Otherwise he might know that in 2006, shortly after the death of Garang, Dagne, Prendergast and I pushed for a meeting with the leadership. Dagne (as Chair), Roger Winter (another signatory of the June 2013 open letter to Savla Kiir, and a champion of South Sudan for more than twenty-five years), Hilde Johnson of Norway (former Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan), and Congressman Donald Payne, Sudan’s most loyal friend in the U.S. Congress—all met with the SPLM Political Bureau in Juba to discuss precisely the issue of corruption about which de Waal’s claims to be concerned.

Such efforts were of longstanding. In 1994 Prendergast was primary author of a Human Rights Watch monograph that chronicled the human rights abuses of both the Khartoum regime and the SPLA. For his efforts Prendergast was actually jailed by the SPLA for a period of time. He has been no less critical of the SPLA on human rights issues subsequently, if speaking more often behind the scenes, as is the case, perforce, for myself. Dagne drafted a resolution in 1993 while an aide to Congressman Harry Johnston of Florida; in the Resolution the following language appears:

Whereas all factions of the Sudan People's Liberation Army also are responsible for serious abuses of human rights, including the killing in September 1992 of 4 foreign citizens, the reported killing of 87 civilians by the Nasir faction of the Sudanese People's Liberation Army in January 1992 in Pagarau, and the reported killing of 200 “deserters” by the Torit group near Tonj in Bahr al-Ghazal;

Resolved by the House of Representatives (the Senate concurring),

That the Congress,

(1) strongly condemns the Government of Sudan for its severe human rights abuses, and calls upon that government to improve human rights conditions throughout the country;

(2) deplores the internecine fighting among the Sudan People's Liberation Army factions which has caused untold suffering for the people of southern Sudan;

(3) calls on all factions of the Sudan People's Liberation Army to cease hostilities and resolve their differences through peaceful means;

(4) urges the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Army factions to provide full access for and to cooperate with relief organizations... (House Concurrent Resolution 131, August 3, 1993)

Dagne authored other letters in the 1990s concerning human rights abuses by the SPLA, letters that Johnston and other Congressmen would sign and deliver. All these efforts are excluded from de Waal’s distorted narrative.

Perhaps most tellingly, de Waal does not know of Dagne’s devoted, personally costly, and dangerous efforts to head up efforts to address corruption in the Government of South Sudan and the SPLA/M elite following the CPA, something that he and I had been discussing for several years, with our concerns expressed directly to the GOSS. Indeed, Dagne finally went to Juba—as de Waal most certainly did not—having given up his job at the Congressional Research Service precisely to address as fully and vigorously as possible the problem of corruption. It was highly dangerous work because of the vested interests of those who had profited from and continued to profit from corruption—Dagne’s life was repeatedly threatened, and he was once forcibly expelled from South Sudan by the armed force of a corrupt government official. In my own view, Dagne’s efforts were nothing less heroic.

De Waal’s word “advocates” appears to be directed primarily at Dagne, Prendergast and myself, as well as a few other Americans, accusing us of a “shocking” enabling of a “profoundly corrupt and abusive system of government.” What is shocking is that such efforts as we have made mean nothing to de Waal because they don’t fit his pre-packaged narrative about Sudan and South Sudan. He declares at one moment in the Al Jazeera interview: “[a] simplified moral script makes a very bad policy.” But dishonesty and ignorance make for even worse policies. I will have a good deal more to say about de Waal’s own “scripts” and narratives—and ignorance—in subsequent analyses.

*****************************

Appendix A: Bahr El Ghazal and the Famine of 1998, Human Rights Watch (1999):

Systematic human rights abuses were the direct cause of the famine in Bahr El Ghazal. The famine agents are the government of Sudan, including the muraheleen or militia of the Baggara (Arab cattle nomads), and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA). The Dinka warlord Kerubino Kuanyin Bol, who has twice changed sides in one year, provoked famine mostly as the leader of a government militia. The Bahr El Ghazal famine affected—and continues to assail—approximately one million people, a majority of them Dinka, the largest ethnic group in Sudan....

The civil war is waged by means that expressly violate human rights and humanitarian law—the laws of war. The government’s counterinsurgency plan in Bahr El Ghazal, the central Nuba Mountains, and elsewhere is to attack civilians as a means to destroy the rebels social base, displacing, killing, or capturing civilians and stripping them of the meager assets that provide the means of survival in a harsh land. An important instrument of this policy are ethnic militias armed by the government to divide southerners against each other and enable non-southerners to attack southern civilians perceived to support rebel groups. The impoverished Baggara militias who help carry out the plan in Bahr El Ghazal are motivated by the prospect of booty: Dinka cattle, grain, children, and women. The Baggara, who live north of the Bahr al Arab River (which the Dinka call the Kiir River), also saw they could freely use the traditional Dinka lands in northern Bahr El Ghazal and southern Kordofan, which have good grazing land and water sources, if the Dinka were displaced from them.

Appendix B: Human Rights Watch, Congressional Testimony of July 28, 1998: “The Looming Famine In The Nuba Mountains, Central Sudan”:

The National Islamic Front [NIF, currently the National Congress Party—ER] wages a war of attrition by starvation and displacement of the Nuba. Having failed to defeat the SPLA militarily, in 1992 the NIF declared jihad or holy war on opposition Nuba, even the Muslims-and Nuba commander and governor Yousif Kuwa is a Muslim (although his children are Christians, which he has never opposed; this tolerance is typical of the Nuba in SPLA territory).

In 1992 the government set up "peace camps" ringing garrison towns and forced rural Nuba it captured to live there, under guard lest they escape to their homes. In the camps, women and girls are subjected to sexual abuse by [Khartoum’s] PDF [Popular Defense Forces] and soldiers. All family members are punished if one manages to escape. International relief is provided in the Nuba Mountains, but only on one side: the government side. Some food, usually an inadequate amount, goes to peace camps.

The government has refused and delayed all UN efforts to conduct even a needs assessment in SPLA areas, despite the most recent pledge (May 1998) to UN Secretary Kofi Annan that such a mission could proceed. After a compromise was reached regarding the composition of the assessment team and their point of departure, the government denied permission for the team to proceed, and the visit has now been postponed indefinitely. This time the government uses the pretext of an ambush killing three relief workers that must be investigated before anything else happens; responsibility for the ambush is not clear. Many see the UN's failure to push for equal access to the rebel areas of the north as colluding in the government's attempts to starve the Nuba into submission.

At the same time as it delays food relief for the needy in SPLA areas of the Nuba Mountains, the government is engaging in scorched earth tactics against this civilian population, looting animals and crops, and burning what abductees cannot carry. It also displaces those living in fertile valleys into the higher and less fertile land. Now hunger is driving Nubas to the garrison towns and peace camps, in search of food and clothes. Because the Nuba Mountains are isolated from any international border or SPLA area, the government has successfully cut off most ordinary commerce to the area, so basic items such as used clothes, salt and sugar are rarely available, at any price.

Appendix C: Over many years I have expressed many profound disagreements with Alex de Waal, particularly on the catastrophe that continues, indeed deepens in Darfur. I have assembled below a bibliography of those publications that do most to distinguish my views from de Waal’s. While only a few are directed specifically at de Waal, I have highlighted with an asterisk [*] those publications that seem to establish clear differences of view and understanding. Those with a particularly direct bearing on our differences have been highlighted with two asterisks [**].

** On Alex de Waal's view of the uprising in Sudan: A brief critique, Sudan Tribune, 17 October 2013 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-18R

** A Note on the Assessment of Darfur by Alex de Waal: “How was Darfur so badly understood and terribly mismanaged by the international community?” http://wp.me/p45rOG-1yk (An Appendix to"Completing the Darfur Genocide: Tens of thousands in Khartoum's death grip; the killing has begun in earnest" |http://wp.me/p45rOG-1yb | 7 January 2015

** A Long Day’s Dying: Critical Moments in the Darfur Genocide (Key Publishing, 2007) (review commentary at http://www.sudanreeves.org/Article285.html)

**Compromising with Evil: An archival history of greater Sudan, 2007 – 2012 (October 2012 in eBook format, www.CompromisingWithEvil.org) (review commentary at http://sudanreeves.org/2013/08/30/compromising-with-evil-an-archival-history-of-sudan-2007-2012-commentary/)

** “Regime Change in Sudan,” The Washington Post, August 23, 2004

* “Unnoticed Genocide,” The Washington Post, February 25, 2004

** “Genocide by Attrition in Sudan," The Washington Post (Sunday), April 6, 2008

** “Khartoum Collapses Darfuri Civil Society Peace Effort,” The Christian Science Monitor, May 27, 2009

** “Darfur, an ICC Arrest Warrant, and the Humanitarian Imperative,” The International Herald Tribune, March 22, 2009

** “Global Justice Challenged in Darfur,” The International Herald Tribune, September 1, 2008

“U.S. experts set out major advantages of South Sudan railway option,” MENA Rail News, July 13, 2013 (with Sharon Hutchinson, University of Wisconsin/Madison)

** “Sudan, South Sudan, and the Oil Revenues Controversy: Khartoum’s Obstructionism Threatens War,” Fair Observer (South Africa), April 201

* “A Scandalous International Hypocrisy on Sudan,” Issue Brief on Sudan (Council on Foreign Relations), April 26, 2012

“Humanitarian Obstruction as a Crime Against Humanity,” African Studies Review, Volume 54, Number 3 (December 2011), pp. 165 – 74

** “Shame Without End: Darfur and ‘the Responsibility to Protect,’” Yale Journal of International Affairs (2011, Volume 3, Issue 2)

** “Obama, Sudan, and the ‘De-Coupling’ of Darfur,” February 2011 web column for Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs

** “Failure to Protect: International Response to Darfur Genocide,” The Harvard International Review, Issue on “Failed States, Vol. 29 (4), Winter 2008

** “Darfur and Genocide,” Embassy Magazine (Canada), June 8, 2005

** “Darfur and the International Criminal Court,” Middle East Report (on-line), April 29, 2005

** “Prospects for Peace in Sudan: The Challenge of the Machakos Process,” Global Dialogue (South Africa), Spring 2003

* “No Further Evasion of the Essential Question: What will we do in Darfur?” Tinabantu: Journal of African National Affairs, Volume 2, No. 1, 2004

* “Peace or War? The Moment of Truth for Sudan,” Mediterranean Quarterly (Duke University Press), Fall 2002

* “On Genocide in Darfur,” December 30, 2003 at Africa InfoServe (Sudan publications of AfricaFiles.org; http://www.africafiles.org/article.asp?ID=4075)

From Dissent Magazine (quarterly print edition)

** “Refusing to Save Darfur,” Dissent Magazine (Fall 2008)

** “Genocide Without End: The Destruction of Darfur,” Dissent Magazine (Summer 2007)

** “Darfur: Watching Genocide, Doing Nothing,” Dissent Magazine (Fall 2006)

** “The Future History of Darfur,” Dissent Magazine (Fall 2005)

** “Darfur: Genocide by Attrition,” Dissent Magazine (Winter 2005)

** “Darfur: Ongoing Genocide,” Dissent Magazine (Fall 2004)

From Dissent Magazine on-line

** “Accommodating Genocide: International Response to Khartoum’s ‘New Strategy for Darfur,’” Dissent Magazine, October 8, 2010

** “Sudan’s Elections: Responding to an Electoral Travesty,” Dissent Magazine, April 22, 2010 (featured article)

** “Darfur End Game: Peace or Justice in Sudan,” Dissent Magazine, February 17, 2009 (featured article)

** “How many in Darfur Have Died?” May 21, 2011

** “The Promise and Peril of an Independent Republic of South Sudan,” February 3, 2011

** “The Referenda for Southern Sudan: The Cost of Belatedness,” November 3, 2010

** “The Annoyance of International Justice,” July 26, 2010

From The New Republic on-line:

** "Darfur: The Disappearing Genocide,” The New Republic, August 20, 2010

** “Why Abuja Won’t Save Darfur, The New Republic, May 10, 2006 | http://wp.me/p45rOG-pf

* “Wishful Thinking: Why the State Department wants you to think the genocide in Darfur is over,” The New Republic, February 9, 2006

* “Accommodating Genocide,” The New Republic, October 27, 2005

** “Untimely Death” [on the death of John Garang] The New Republic, August 2, 2005

From The Guardian (UK) (“Comment is Free”)

** “On the Re-writing of the Darfur Narrative,” The Guardian, June 15, 2006

** “Doomed to failure: Darfur Peace Talks in Sirte, Libya” The Guardian, November 2, 2007

** “How Many Deaths in Darfur?” The Guardian, August 20, 2007

* “Darfur’s Downward Spiral,” The Guardian, August 11, 2006

From The Huffington Post:

* "Bombing Civilian Hospitals: A Khartoum 'Tradition,'" The Huffington Post, January 23, 2015

** "Completing the Darfur Genocide: Khartoum's Renewed Ambition," The Huffington Post, January 13, 2015

* "Khartoum Announces a Campaign to Starve the People of the Nuba Mountains," The Huffington Post, October 7, 201

* "Darfur: The Genocide the World Got Tired Of," The Huffington Post, August 16, 2014

** "South Sudan Slips Into Vicious Chaos Amidst International Belatedness, Lack of Commitment," The Huffington Post, May 22, 2014

** "Sudan's Bloody Crackdown on Civilian Protestors: Does the U.S. Have Anything to Say?" The Huffington Post, October 7, 2013

Eric Reeves, a professor at Smith College, has published extensively on Sudan, nationally and internationally, for the past sixteen years. He is author of Compromising with Evil: An archival history of greater Sudan, 2007 – 2012 (September 2012).

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