By Fatah Arman*
Washington, D.C., July 11, 2012 (SSNA) -- Demonstrations in Khartoum, the capitalof Sudanand many other cities are loosening dictatorBashir'sgrip on power.The demonstratorshave beenflooding the streets of Khartoum since June 19, 2012,a day afterthe government announced theremoval of subsidiesforconsumer goodsand fuel.The regime'sFinance Ministerattributed this move to the fact that the governmentwas running outof moneyandon the road of bankruptcy. Everyone knows the Sudanese economy is on the verge of collapsingdue to badpoliciesthathave been implemented byBasher andhis gang in Khartoum, the same gang thatshould be held responsiblefor their genocidal policies and tactics.
Recentdemonstrationsrestoredconfidenceto the Sudanese people,andnow more than anytimethey aredeterminedto topple this fascist regime. However, there iswishfulthinking that tyrantBasher is going to exit asMubarak of Egyptor Bin Ali of Tunisia.Basher is not clever, yet desperate and deadly. Weshould be mindful theroadisgoing to be bumpy, andthe dictator's situationis not similar to Mubarak or Bin Ali; heisa fugitive and the most wanted man on earth, by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for orchestratinggenocidein Darfur. Now, he is implyingthe same tactics in Blue Nile and Southern Kordfan states. Thus, Basher is traveling on a "dead end" road, andwhen he feels the heat and becomescornered, he will not go down without aviciousfight.
I believe there are four factors which are going to determine Basher's fate and how he is going to step down, and these factors are:
1.The size ofthe demonstrations andtheextentofits expansionto include allstates ofSudan. If protests are widespread all overSudanthis means that the dictator would not be able to disperse them in a few hours, and it will be moredifficult for theNational Congress Party (NCP) security apparatusto crackdown onmillions of Sudanese for the sake ofembattledBasher. If this happens, the dictator will be more willing to seek a safe exile.
2. The NCP contains the seeds of its own demise,and if the protests'scope is getting wider, many leaders withinthe NCP itselfwill defect and would not go down withthe ship as Taliban.Opposition parties and movements should reassure the Islamic Brotherhood and its factions that they are not going to be excluded after the fall of Basher. In addition,the Sudanese youth who are demonstrating and paying a high prince in eliminating this regime should beaccommodated.
3. There must be a mounting pressure from the international community ondictatorBasher to step down, and this step should be ledbyPresidentObama.If the international community uniteand senda strong message to Basher, althoughthismoveis a complementary, but will make the dictatorthink twice before following late Gaddafi's footsteps or adopting AlAssad’s strategy of shelling and bombing the Syrians.
4. TheSudanRevolutionary Front (SRF) should not sit back andwaitfor the outcome of these demonstrations. The SRF should deploy its forces to capture and liberate major cities. By doing so, they would divert the dictator’s attentionand his troops and militias would be exhausted and turn their back on him. The SRF should standby to captureKhartoum if Basher uses his "Mujahedeen", as he warned the protesters last week. All Sudanese youth, including myself are ready to bear arms for a showdown inKhartoumif militias at Basher’s disposal are going to be deployed on the streets to massacre our people. Enough is enough, we shall not retreat. It is true, these four factors are speculations drawn from the bloody regime’s history, but they are not far-fetched.